Sahel气候与环境变化研究进展

对 Sahel地区气候及环境变化的研究 ,对理解和加强我国干旱半干旱地区许多相关问题有较好的借鉴意义。Sahel地区的干旱化持续了近 30年 ,虽然 1 999年降水出现了自 1 968年以来的最高值 ,但整个 90年代降水仍然偏低。造成 Sahel降水波动的因素包括大西洋海表温度、陆面反馈、全球变暖等。其中海洋的影响起重要作用 ,在某些年份里土壤水分可能会起到比较大的作用 ,而大气内部的动力作用则可能没有明显影响 ,从大尺度看人类活动对此地区整体环境和气候的变化贡献不大。     

Desalinization of running waters: III. Changes in the structure of diatom assemblages caused by a decreasing salt load and changing ion spectra in the river Wipper (Thuringia, Germany)

Salt-loaded effluents were introduced into the river Wipper during the mining period for almost a century. Beginning with the year 1990, the waste water load was strongly reduced due to the termination of the potash industry. Prior to 1990, monthly means of the chloride concentrations at times exceeded 6,000 mg l⁻¹ in the strongly polluted sections. Maximum concentrations reached twice these values. Up to 1998, mean annual chloride concentrations decreased to values below 2,000 mg l⁻¹. This led to more balanced fluctuations in salinity which had been pronounced before, depending on discharge and short-term changes in production. Similarly, the physiologically adverse ion conditions improved due to decrasing potassium and increasing calcium proportions.

In 1963/64, 1986 and 1998, samples of epilithic, epiphytic and epipsammic diatoms were taken at locations of different salinities along the river and examined for the effects of the salinization on the structure of the diatom assemblages. These structures changed in dependence on salinity. Increasing salt concentrations coincided with decreasing oligohalophilic and increasing mesohalophilic and polyhalophilic species numbers. Above a chloride concentration of about 3,000 mg l⁻¹, the proportion of the latter exceed that of the former (halobion index > 50). Corresponding to different conditions of salinization along the river, characteristic diatom assemblages occur differring from each other and which are specific for the river section. Spring and autumn aspects of the diatom assemblages show also salt-dependent differences. The assemblages found in 1998 after decrease of salinization have changed markedly in comparison to those from 1963/64 and 1986. Halobiontic species predominating formerly occurred only occasionally or not at all. They were replaced by oligohalobic-indifferent forms.

An ecological assessment of the changes was performed based on the halobion index calculated from all the samples. For the strongly salinized section of the river Wipper, a shift from -mesohalobic/polyhalobic conditions in 1963/64 and 1986 to -oligohalobic/β-mesohalobic conditions in 1998 was found. However, constant -oligohalobic conditions are still not given. With regard to the transition from -oligohalobic (limnetic) to β-mesohalobic (brackish) conditions, a maximum chloride concentration of 600 mg l⁻¹ was found. To guarantee -oligohalobic conditions, a maximum chloride concentration of 400 mg l⁻¹ should not be exceeded.     

河套华北地区旱涝的前期环流异常与大西洋海温的关系及其数值模拟

首先分析了河套华北地区旱涝的前期异常环流，然后探讨了这种异常环流形成的机制，最后采用了ＯＳＵ－ＡＧＣＭ作了大西洋地区热源异常强迫的数值试验。结果表明，大西洋地区海温异常强迫激发的定常波向上、下游的能量传播，造成的前期秋冬季环流异常与河套华北地区的夏季旱涝有较好的对应关系。     

形变,应变短临前兆标志体系的应用研究

文献「３」中给出了标志体系的整体框架结构和各标志的内容，本文讨论标志体系的进一步应用问题。首先讨论了异常信息合成的几种形式，然后根据标志体系的特点，给出了前兆追踪分析的方案；最后将专家系统的有关理论瑟形变应变前兆标志体系相结合，给出了一个地震预报专家系统的逻辑结构。     

宏观地震忽略吸收确定震源深度问题的通解及其精确度

分析G-R-闵公式后得出,它是从点源幅射场导出的,与地震宏观场不相应。因在近场震源不能视作点源。在分析过程中,导出相当于点源、线源或面源以及复杂源的幅射场的深度公式。对实际的地震,它的源类型一无所知,所以不预作假定,将源指标几何扩散率n作为待定参数,导出了一个物理意义明确而又普遍化的震源深度公式。此公式的诸解法中,以计算方法准确、精度高,作图法有直观的优点,但准确性差、精度低,图算法只作获取粗略值和考察数据均匀性用。计算了9个8级以上巨震、1个71/2大震,和两个M_L=3的有感地震的震源深度,经对比结果很好,利用计算得出震源类型,结合宏观场研究了这些地震的震源几何学。并且首次在国际上给出宏观地震震源深度值的标准误差。     

Optimal operation model of a single reservoir with drought duration explicitly concerned

In this paper, a new model for a single reservoir operation optimization is proposed. The proposed model can design the optimal operation policy of a reservoir with explicit consideration of drought duration. The authors model this problem by formulating a single-stage loss function as a function of both the reservoir release and drought duration. Thereby the expected loss per period which is calculated based on the above extended single-stage loss function is minimized in infinite time horizon on the basis of Markov decision process (MDP) theory. The reliability indices are estimated as expected loss per period for specified extended loss functions. Finally, the features of the proposed model are illustrated through numerical analysis.     

关于辽宁地区b值方法定量预测的研究

本文利用地震学分析预报方法程式指南和“八五”攻关成果中提出的地震b值定量预测方法,对辽宁及邻区1969年以来发生的8次地震震例作了回顾性检验研究。在此基础上,根据震前b值的变化特征,总结出了可能适用于辽宁地区半年左右尺度的b值预测方法的异常羊别指标及预报规则。     

中国半湿润/半干旱类型及区域划分指标的研究

半湿润与半干旱地区之间的差异是客观存在的,但长期以来由于各种区划所采用的原则、方法和指标不同, 对它们之间的划分存在着较多的分歧和争议。本文对我国从综合自然地理学角度进行半湿润与半干旱区划分的指标进行了对比分析, 指出了其中存在的不足,并提出了在指标的选取上应着重考虑的几个方面。试图为中国生态地理区域系统的建立提供有益的参考。     

黄淮海平原冬小麦生长期旱情分析

黄淮海平原降水较少且年际、季际变化大,因此水分供应状况成为该区作物,特别是以冬春季为主要生育期的冬小麦的主限制因素。鉴于作物实际蒸散量与潜在蒸散量关系依赖于作物生长状况和土壤水分的事实,提出反映作物缺水状况的干旱指标———作物水分胁迫指数（ＣＷＳＩ）。计算黄淮海平原冬小麦生长期间的ＣＷＳＩ,并分析其在自然降水条件及适量灌溉条件下的时空分异规律     

浅淡物候指标在农业生产上的应用

通过对物候资料与气象资料的对比分析找出与农业界限温度对应的物候指标,以物候指标为依据,就可掌握农业四季的初终期和农业界限温度的出现时间,并以物候指标预告农时,简便易行,对指导农业生产有广泛的应用价值。