2013年长江中下游夏季高温干旱演变过程及环流异常成因简析

利用改进的CIn指数,结合NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,逐候分析2013年夏季长江中下游地区高温干旱演变过程和高温异常成因。结果表明：改进后的CIn指数能够准确识别此次干旱过程,整体持续时间近一个月。旱情从7月第4候湖南南部开始,8月第3候干旱程度最强,特旱中心位于湖南省中东部,浙江省为高温中心,8月第4候旱情得到缓解。在干旱成因上,极涡位置异常偏西,影响长江中下游地区冷空气偏弱,南亚高压东伸与西太平洋副热带高压西伸明显;鄂霍次克海至菲律宾一带呈较强的EAP遥相关型,其中长江中下游地区位势高度的正异常加强了西太平洋副热带高压的中心强度并使其位置偏西;乌拉尔山地区的阻塞高压与西太平洋副热带高压相对峙,有利于西太平洋副热带高压长期稳定地控制在长江中下游地区;同时欧亚大陆与西太平洋海陆温差增大,东亚夏季风偏强,西太平洋副热带高压异常偏北,长江中下游地区下沉气流强盛,在西太平洋副热带高压和南亚高压共同作用下,造成持续的高温干旱过程。     

浙江仙居县漂流旅游的气候影响因素探讨

采用仙居县漂流旅游项目营业开始迄今的客流量和同期的降水、相对湿度、风速和气温等气象资料对仙居县永安溪漂流的气候影响因素进行了研究。分析了当地的人体舒适度指标,统计了月平均舒适天数,同时探讨了降水和高温的影响,得出适宜的气候条件,计算了各指标的距乎百分率,并与客流变化作对比分析。结果表明：5月和10月气候适宜且旅游流量高;4月、7月和9月也为适宜时段,但客流量少,旅游资源有待进一步挖掘。     

内蒙古东南部地区夏季旱涝的环流特征分析及预测

主要从与内蒙古东南部地区(指赤峰市和通辽市)夏季旱涝关系密切的西太平洋副高、亚洲地区环流和蒙古冷涡三个主要的天气系统入手,分析旱涝年的环流差异。结果表明:⑴夏季蒙古冷涡偏多、副热带高压偏强和北半球盛行经向环流,是造成夏季降水偏多的主要环流形势;⑵冬季北半球极涡纬度和亚洲地区的环流指数对夏季环流形势有一定的指示意义;二者相互动态地影响了夏季旱涝,据此建立夏季旱涝预测模型。经过1995—2008年14年的实际应用,趋势准确率为85.7%。     

Evaluation of the carrying capacity of marine industrial parks: A case study in China

Carrying capacity is an important index used to evaluate the status of regional resources, ecological environment, and regional economic development. Marine industrial parks have gained substantial attention from domestic and foreign investors and governments at all levels; in particular, these parks are an essential part of the national blue economy development plan of the Chinese government. The carrying capacity of a marine industrial park is important to all related stakeholders. In this study, an evaluation system was established based on the literature review and expert interviews by using 32 indices under three dimensions (pressure, bearing, and transformation) to determine the carrying capacity of a marine industrial park. The carrying capacity of marine industrial parks in Shandong Province was evaluated using this system across diverse dimensions by incorporating state space and analytic hierarchy processes. Results indicated that carrying capacity significantly differed among regions, parks, and specific dimensions. Comparison among different types of marine industrial parks indicated that the modern marine service industry and fishery industrial parks showed improved and efficient development with relatively high bearing rates. By contrast, the modern marine manufacturing industry and strategic emerging industrial parks were significantly underdeveloped. This study proposes academic approaches and practical implications for the involved governments and managing committees. Furthermore, suggestions on park planning, policy support, industrial cluster, and industry–university–research institute alliances are provided to the government and enterprise perspectives to increase the carrying capacity of marine characteristic industrial parks.     

Drought characteristics of Henan province in 1961-2013 based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards affecting agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems, and society. The negative societal consequences of drought include severe economic losses, famine, epidemics, and land degradation. However, few studies have analyzed the complexity of drought characteristics, both at multiple time scales and with variations in evapotranspiration. In this study, drought occurrences were quantified using a new drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), based on observed data of monthly mean temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2013 in Henan province, central China. Based on the SPEI values of each weather station in the study, the frequency and severity of meteorological droughts were computed, and the monthly, seasonal, and annual drought frequency and intensity over a 53-year period were analyzed. The spatial and temporal evolution, intensity, and the primary causes of drought occurrence in Henan were revealed. The results showed that the SPEI values effectively reflected the spatial and temporal pattern of drought occurrence. As the time scale decreased, the amplitude of the SPEI increased and droughts became more frequent. Since 1961, drought has occurred at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, and the occurrence of drought has increased. However, regional distribution has been uneven. The highest drought frequency, 35%, was observed in the Zhoukou region, while the lowest value, ~26%, was measured in central and western Henan. The most severe droughts occurred in the spring and summer, followed by autumn. Annually, wide-ranging droughts occurred in 1966–1968, 1998–2000, and 2011–2013. The drought intensity showed higher values in north and west Henan, and lower values in its east and south. The maximum drought intensity value was recorded in Anyang, and the minimum occurred in Zhumadian, at 22.18% and 16.60%, respectively. The factors with the greatest influence on drought occurrence are increasing temperatures, the Eurasian atmospheric circulation patterns, and the El Niño effect.     

Ecological water quality analysis of the Guayas river basin (Ecuador) based on macroinvertebrates indices

The Guayas river basin is one of the major watersheds in Ecuador, where increasing human activities are affecting water quality and related ecosystem services. The aims of this study were (1) to assess the ecological water quality based on macroinvertebrate indices and (2) to determine the major environmental variables affecting these macroinvertebrate indices. To do so, we performed an integrated water quality assessment at 120 locations within the river basin. Biological and physical–chemical data were collected to analyze the water quality. Two biotic indices were calculated to assess the water quality with an ecological approach: the Biological Monitoring Working Party Colombia (BMWP-Col) and the Neotropical Low-land Stream Multimetric Index (NLSMI). Both the BMWP-Col and NLSMI indicated good water quality at the (upstream) forested locations, lower water quality for sites situated at arable land and bad water quality at residential areas. Both indices gave relevant assessment outcomes and can be considered valuable for supporting the local water management. A correspondence analysis (CA) applied on both indices suggested that flow velocity, chlorophyll concentration, conductivity, land use, sludge layer and sediment type were the major environmental variables determining the ecological water quality. We also suggested that nutrient and pesticide measurements are important to study water quality in the area where intensive agriculture activities take place. The nutrient levels detected in agricultural areas were relatively low and illustrated that the types of crops and the current cultivation methods were not leading to eutrophication. The applied methods and results of this study can be used to support the future water management of the Guayas river basin and similar basins situated in the tropics.     

基于NDVI先验知识的LAI地面采样方法

针对非均质中低分辨率像元的叶面积指数LAI验证中如何布设基本采样单元ESU的问题,提出基于NDVI先验知识的ESU布设方法,并采用不同植被类型、不同均匀程度的地表作为模拟场,分析对比了方法的精度及稳定性。结果显示,本文方法用NDVI先验知识描述植被的生长空间分布信息,能相对准确地划分植被的不同生长水平,有效降低层内方差。在草地和森林地区的试验中,精度与稳定性均优于传统的随机采样、均匀采样和基于分类图的3种采样方法。因此,本文提出的采样方法为大尺度非均质区域LAI地面验证的采样方案提供了新的设计思路。     

中国避暑型气候的地域类型及其时空分布特征

由于中国各地纬度、地形及海陆位置的地域差异,形成了多种多样的避暑型气候。本文采用1993-2012年756个国家基本站和122个辐射站逐日气象数据,基于通用热气候指数(UTCI)模型计算各气象站点的人体感知温度,结合聚类分析方法对避暑型气候的地域类型进行了研究,并对其空间分布、时间变化和舒适特征进行了分析。结果表明：中国避暑型气候主要包括西南高原型、中东部山岳型、东北山地平原型、西北山地高原型和环渤海低山丘陵型5种地域类型;各类避暑型气候具有显著的地域特色：西南高原型避暑气候纬度低、海拔高,太阳辐射较强;中东部山岳型避暑气候地势高、风速大,夏季舒适偏冷;环渤海低山丘陵型避暑气候地势低、湿度大,夏季舒适偏热且舒适度受海风影响明显;西北山地高原型避暑气候温度适宜、天气晴朗,但略显干燥;东北山地平原型避暑气候凉爽、风速不大、辐射不强、湿度适中,综合条件相对优越。从各类避暑型气候夏季人体感知温度的变化来看,环渤海低山丘陵型舒适期较短,其余类型舒适期相对较长,东北山地平原型和西北山地高原型人体感知温度曲线呈良好的单峰对称变化,其余类型大致呈单峰不对称形态。本文不仅丰富了避暑型气候研究的理论成果,而且也可为避暑型旅游资源的开发与规划提供科学依据,进一步指导人们的避暑旅游活动。     

玉米叶面积指数的CHRIS/PROBA数据反演分析

叶面积指数(LAI)是衡量植被生态状况和估算作物产量的一个重要指标。LAI的反演是定量遥感研究的重要内容。传统的经验统计反演方法基于单一观测角度的遥感数据进行,忽略了地物反射率的方向性。若在反演中加入多观测角度的信息,则有可能提升LAI反演的精度。以2008年甘肃省张掖市玉米实验区为研究区,利用欧空局的CHRIS/PROBA多角度高光谱数据对比分析了传统植被指数NDVI、RVI、EVI的变化规律及其反演玉米叶面积指数LAI的精度,并根据NDVI随观测角度的变化规律,构造出新型多角度归一化植被指数MNDVI,分别对实测叶面积指数进行线性回归并利用实测数据对估算LAI进行精度验证,结果表明：新型MNDVI指数相比于传统NDVI、RVI、EVI对LAI的反演精度有了显著提升,估算模型决定系数R²达到0.716,精度验证均方根误差为0.127,平均减小了33.3%。     

山东春季降水的时空变化特征分析

根据山东省81个地面站1961-1998年共38年的降水资料,应用自然正交函数展开（EOF）方法,分析了山东省38年春季月、季降水量的时空变化特征。根据降水方差累积贡献率和空间分布特征,指出前3个典型场基本能反映山东省春季季降水分布的主要特征,其贡献率高达81．30％,据此得出山东省春季降水分布类型：总体一致型、东南-西北差异型和西南-东北差异型。山东春季降水空间分布可分为4个区,南部区：日照、临沂、枣庄及济宁;半岛区：烟台、威海、青岛和潍坊东部;西部区：荷泽、聊城;北部区：德州、滨州、东营、济南、泰安、莱芜、淄博和潍坊西部。同旱（涝）是山东春季各月降水的基本型。山东春季易出现干旱,春季降水存在明显的年际变化,有4．8～6年的振荡周期。