船体可靠性评估

为了研究不同结构船体的寿命和使用时可靠度的关系,提出了一种基于试验的可靠度估计方法.针对不同结构船体寿命服从Weibull分布,在无失效数据情形下、置信度至少为γ和寿命为t时,根据船体寿命试验数据,给出了可靠度的单侧置信下限.该方法是在Weibull分布形状参数下限已知的情况下,能将所有的无失效寿命数据进行累加,大大提高了可靠性分析的精度.最后,对钢结构、钛合金结构、铝合金结构的船体,在寿命为t月、置信度至少为γ时,计算了3种结构船体的可靠度单侧置信下限.结果表明该方法易于计算,便于工程应用.     

Impact factors on distribution and characteristics of natural plant community in reclamation zones of Changjiang River estuary

To identify impact factors on the distribution and characters of natural plants community in reclamation area, with survey data from 67 plant quadrats in July 2009, soil properties data from 216 sampling points in April 2009, and TM (30 m) data in 2006, the composition and characteristics of natural plants community in different time of the Fengxian area in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary were analyzed with two-way indicator species analysis (TWINSPAN), multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), detrended canonical correspondence analysis (DCCA) and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). The results show that: 1) The plant communities in the reclaimed area are mainly mesophytes and helophytic-mesophytic transitional communities, showing a gradient distribution trend with the change in reclamation years. Species richness (MA), species diversity (H) and above-ground biomass also increase with the increase of reclamation years. Nevertheless, they appear to decline slightly in the middle and late reclamation period (> 30 years). 2) With the rise in land use levels, the changes in species richness and species diversity tend to increase at first and then decrease; species dominance (D), however, tends to decline; and above-ground biomass increases slightly. 3) The distribution of the plant community is mainly influenced by the following factors: land use levels (R = 0.55, p < 0.05), soil moisture (R = 0.53, p < 0.05), soil salinity (R = 0.43, p < 0.05) and reclamation time (R = 0.40, p < 0.05).     

河南省大中型火电厂地下水资源开发利用及前景展望

该文通过回顾近十几年来河南省大中型火电厂地下水资源勘查概况,分析水源地运行情况,指出可持续开发与利用的条件,扩大开采量的可能性,及可以采取的相应措施。     

中国太阳能热发电站选址模型研究

太阳能热发电技术在我国新世纪能源战略中具有重要地位,太阳能热发电电站位置的合理选择对发电成本有直接影响,涉及到太阳能热发电技术本身、高时空分辨率的太阳能法直辐射分布、土地利用分布、水资源分布、社会经济分布,以及政策税收等众多因素。本文提出了一个太阳能热发电站选址的决策支持系统框架,就其中的太阳能直法辐射调查进行了初步试验。本文依据供需时空平衡原则进一步讨论了多种绿色能源互补的大能源系统运筹问题。     

地震波的场方程矩阵和能量的正定二次型及其意义

场方程是能够表述半空间地震波场的整体特征.波动方程、速度方程和能量方程.通过分析可知每个场方程都具有各自的“场方程矩阵”.能量方程能够对所有场方程矩阵进行综合和贯通,给出了能量方程以“弹性矩阵”为核心的普适性表达形式.最后,运用矩阵的正定二次型理论阐述了“能量矩阵与弹性矩阵”之间一致的对称性和正定性.能量矩阵蕴含的动态力的平衡关系、速度的时间_空间分布和能量的传播及变化的物理意义,能够从能量矩阵的正定二次型特性表述出来.本文研究分析问题的方法完全适用于复杂介质模型,相关的认识和结论可以拓展到均匀黏弹性各向同性介质、均匀弹性各向异性介质、均匀黏弹性各向异性介质以及比奥饱和流体介质.     

古尔班通古特沙漠灌木冠幅预测模型

古尔班通古特沙漠是中国第二大沙漠,也是中国固定和半固定沙丘主要分布区,固沙灌木种较多。冠幅不仅是反映固沙灌木可视化的重要参数,也是反映沙漠植被生长情况的重要变量。以3种沙丘（固定沙丘、半固定沙丘和流动沙丘）上主要固沙灌木为研究对象,利用12种基础模型、BP(Backpropagation Neural Network)神经网络和支持向量机（Support Vector Machine,SVM）机器学习算法建立了基于固沙灌木株高和冠长率的冠幅预测模型,同时将两种机器学习算法拟合结果与基础模型进行比较,最终选出了适合研究区的冠幅预测模型。结果表明：（1）不同沙丘类型和不同灌木种类的最优冠幅预测模型不同,且固定沙丘和半固定沙丘模型优于流动沙丘。3种沙丘类型最优拟合为M2(Quadratic Model)模型;（2）白梭梭（Haloxylon persicum）在半固定沙丘和流动沙丘上拟合的最优模型分别为M2、M7(Gompertz),沙拐枣（Calligonum mongolicum）最优模型为M2,蛇麻黄（Ephedra distachya）和油蒿（Artemisia ordosica）在...     

基于循环孔洞扩张模型的X型圆管节点超低周疲劳寿命预测

海洋工程钢结构在服役过程中,受风、浪、流或地震等极端循环载荷的影响,易发生超低周疲劳断裂破坏,造成人员伤亡及财产损失,因此超低周疲劳断裂分析及寿命预测对于海工结构安全性评估至关重要。然而,现阶段基于累积损伤理论提出的多种超低周疲劳寿命预测模型无法对多尺度节点实现统一预测,造成了实际工程应用的不便。因此文中基于循环孔洞扩张模型开展X型圆管节点超低周疲劳寿命预测。首先,开发了基于循环孔洞扩张模型的VUSDFLD程序,实现ABAQUS与FORTRAN子程序联合应用,利用有限元分析验证循环孔洞扩张模型在X型圆管节点超低周疲劳断裂分析中的有效性;其次,根据多组X型圆管节点超低周疲劳断裂有限元分析结果,在宏观层面提出了一种基于Manson-Coffin公式的超低周疲劳寿命预测公式;最后,依据Miner理论,将适用于等幅加载的超低周疲劳寿命公式扩展至变幅加载情况,验证了多种节点尺寸下超低周疲劳公式的适用性,为工程应用提供了理论依据。     

The influence of medium-range transport on O3 levels at a rural site in Israel

Simultaneous ozone measurements were made at a rural site, 25 km SSW of the city of Jerusalem, and in the center of the city during a period of 28 months. The ozone data were supplemented by SO₂, NO/NO _x ,and meteorological measurements at both sites. Elevated ozone concentrations were recorded at the rural site, mostly during the spring months (May and June) during which the monthly averages and the monthly averages of the daily 30 min maximum levels equalled those measured in the city. During the summer months, both average and peak levels were lower at the rural site by 20 and 35 ppb. The increased ozone levels at the rural site were accompanied by a parallel increase of SO₂ and NO _x ,suggesting hat the excess ozone at the rural site is a result of a transformation during transport of air pollutants from coastal sources.     

Niveo-aeolian deposits and denivation forms,with special reference to the great Kobuk Sand Dunes,Northwestern Alaska

The geomorphology, lithology and chronostratigraphy of extensive, late Pleistocene inland and river dune sands, aeolian sand sheets (‘cover sands’) and loess deposits of periglacial origin in northwestern Europe are well known. However, the idea that some of these aeolian sediments result from niveo-aeolian processes is still an open question, as no diagnostic sedimentary features have yet been reported. Moreover, actual niveo-aeolian sediments and related denivation forms, reported from various cold-climate regions, are not suitable analogues. Recent observations in active dune fields in northwestern Alaska indicate that interstratification of wind-driven snow and sand preferentially occurs on slip faces of transverse, barchanoid or parabolic dune ridges. Annual denivation forms develop: e.g. snow ramparts, sinkholes, snow hummocks, snow meltwater fans and tensional cracks. The surface consists of a cracked wet sand layer with a dimpled surface and spongy structure. Although the preservation potential of these features is low in this specific case, similar features may be observed in ancient sediments elsewhere and provide useful palaeoclimatic indicators. The niveo-aeolian concept should therefore not specifically be related to late Pleistocene cover sand deposition in northwestern Europe, as previously assumed.