Modelling linear wave transformation induced by dissipative structures—Random waves

The relevant theory is presented and numerical results are compared with the analytical solution for the interaction of non-breaking waves with an array of vertical porous circular cylinders on a horizontal bed. The extension to the cases of unidirectional and multidirectional waves is obtained by means of a transfer function. The influence of the mechanical properties of porous structures and wave irregularity on wave transformation is analysed. Results for unidirectional and multidirectional wave spectra are compared to those obtained for regular waves. The model presented reproduces well the analytical results and provides a tool for analysing several engineering problems.     

Effects of high-order nonlinear interactions on unidirectional wave trains

Numerical simulations of gravity waves with high-order nonlinearities in two-dimensional domain are performed by using the pseudo spectral method. High-order nonlinearities more than third order excite apparently chaotic evolutions of the Fourier energy in deep water random waves. The high-order nonlinearities increase kurtosis, wave height distribution and H_max/H_1/3 in deep water and decrease these wave statistics in shallow water. Moreover, they can generate a single extreme high wave with an outstanding crest height in deep water. High-order nonlinearities (more than third order) can be regarded as one cause of freak waves in deep water.     

Modèles géostatistiques de concentrations ou de débits le long des cours d'eau

Estimating concentrations or flow rates along a stream network requires specific models. Two classes of models, recently proposed in the literature, are generalized, to the intrinsic case in particular. We present a global construction by ‘streams’, i.e. on the whole set of paths between sources and outlet. Combining stationary or intrinsic one-dimensional random functions leads to stationary or intrinsic models on segments, with discontinuities at the forks. A construction from outlet to sources, leads to stationary or intrinsic models on each stream, without any discontinuity at the forks. The linear variogram is found as a particular case. The extension to the linear model of coregionalization is immediate, allowing a multivariate modelling of concentrations. To cite this article: C. de Fouquet, C. Bernard-Michel, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Optimization of the Sampling Technique for the Determination of Dissolved Hydrogen in Groundwater

In this study a field‐sampling technique for dissolved hydrogen (H₂) in groundwater will be presented which allows the transport of gaseous samples into the laboratory for further analysis. The method consists of transferring the headspace trapped in a gas‐sampling bulb which is continuously purged by groundwater into previously evacuated vials using a gas‐tight syringe. Three transfer steps with preceding evacuation of the vial led to a H₂‐recovery of 100 % in laboratory experiments. The method has been applied to determine H₂ concentrations in an aquifer contaminated with chlorinated solvents. Tests concerning the effect of different pumping techniques on H₂ concentrations revealed that most reliable values were obtained with a bladder pump, while an electrically driven submersible pump generated considerable amounts of hydrogen due to electrochemical interactions with the sampled water. Concentrations of dissolved hydrogen in field and laboratory samples were about two orders of magnitude higher when sampling was performed with the electrically driven submersible pump compared to sampling with the bladder pump and a peristaltic pump. Lab experiments with a Plexiglas reservoir to produce H₂‐enriched water were used to study the effect of two tubing materials (PVC, polyamide) on H₂ losses. PVC tubing turned out to allow transfer of H₂‐enriched water over 25 m without significant losses, while PA‐tubing was not suitable for sampling of H₂.     

随机森林机器算法在江苏省小麦赤霉病病穗率预测中的应用

基于2002—2018年江苏省13个市的小麦赤霉病病穗率资料与生育期观测资料、相应时段内的逐日气象数据,应用随机森林机器学习算法,分生育期、分区域定量评估影响病穗率的主要气象因子特征变量和贡献率,按不同起报时间建立预测模型并进行验证。结果表明,各生育期重要特征变量贡献率的排序为:抽穗扬花期>拔节期>越冬期。抽穗扬花期湿度、连续≥3 d的雨日和日照对赤霉病起主导作用,拔节期日照、降雨量、湿度和雨日与越冬期气温和降雪对赤霉病均具有前期影响,甄别出的重要特征变量排序结果符合赤霉病菌发育、释放、侵染和流行规律;基于随机森林算法建立的病穗率预测模型的精度与重要特征变量个数、赤霉病发生区域、M_try参数设定、生育期有关;最早可在3月初进行预测,预测时效近3个月,起报时间越接近乳熟期,输入的重要特征变量越多,则病穗率预测准确率越高,病穗率模拟值与实测值的波动趋势完全一致,对赤霉病"中等"和"偏重"等级模拟效果好,表明随机森林算法在赤霉病预测中有较高的可靠性和业务应用潜力。     

Sentinel-2卫星落叶松林龄信息反演

林龄结构信息能够有效反映区域森林群落不同生长阶段的固碳能力,对于评估森林生态系统的健康状况具有重要意义。本研究以中国温带典型优势树种落叶松林为研究对象,分别选择其芽萌动期、展叶期和落叶期时段的Sentinel-2影像,采用多元线性回归（MLR）、随机森林（RF）、支持向量机回归（SVR）、前馈反向传播神经网络（BP）以及多元自适应回归样条（MARS）等5种方法依次构建落叶松林龄反演模型。通过相关性分析首先确定最佳遥感反演物候期,并在此基础上根据相关性差异筛选出5个最优特征变量用于模型反演,分别为冠层含水量（CWC）,归一化水体指数（NDWI）,叶面积指数（LAI）,光合有效辐射吸收率（FAPAR）和植被覆盖度（FVC）。研究结果表明,展叶期为落叶松林最佳遥感反演物候期。除植被衰减指数（PSRI）以及落叶期的NDVI、RVI外,落叶松林龄与各指标之间均呈负相关关系,其中与冠层含水量（CWC）的相关性最高,pearson相关系数达到-0.74（p<0.01）。此外,不同模型反演结果表明,随机森林模型（RF）为最佳落叶松林龄估测模型,其平均决定系数R²和平均均方根误差RMSE分别为0.89和2.91 a;多元线性回归模型（MLR）的林龄估测结果最差,其平均决定系数R²和平均均方根误差RMSE仅为0.57和5.69 a,非线性模型能更好的解释林龄与建模变量之间的关系。     

制作汛期降水集成预报的分区权重法

该文提出一种不受历史预报档案资料多少限制的集成预报方法。这个方法的基本思想是以各种不同预报的历史评分资料为基础,确定各个预报方法的权重。根据若干原则设计了16种预报方案。计算结果表明,这个方法具有较高的准确度和可行性,可以用于业务预报。     

考虑填充墙影响的钢筋混凝土厂房结构地震易损性分析

采用对角斜撑模拟纵向填充墙的作用,建立考虑填充墙和不考虑填充墙厂房结构模型,采用拉丁超立方抽样技术建立考虑材料不确定性的结构分析样本,基于随机Pushover分析确定结构不同破坏状态下的统计参数。综合考虑结构材料强度及输入地震动不确定性的影响,通过非线性时程分析开展单层钢筋混凝土厂房结构易损性研究,在此基础上比较结构横、纵向易损性的差异,研究填充墙对结构易损性的影响。研究结果表明:钢筋混凝土厂房结构体系横向地震易损性显著大于纵向地震易损性;对纵向结构体系而言,加入填充墙会明显降低结构易损性,但在相同强度的地震动作用下,填充墙破坏程度比主体结构严重,这与厂房结构的实际震害特征相符。     

基于二维散射变换的湖相碳酸盐岩储层厚度预测方法研究

济阳坳陷沙四段湖相碳酸盐岩受湖盆内沉积环境和构造运动等因素控制, 储层厚度变化大, 非均质性强, 油气开发难度大.为了准确预测湖相碳酸盐岩储层的厚度, 本文提出一种基于二维散射变换和随机森林的储层厚度预测方法.首先, 引入二维散射变换提取地震时频属性, 该变换是在二维小波变换的基础上, 通过迭代小波分解和非线性操作来实现的.与传统的二维小波变换对比, 散射变换提取的时频属性具有局部形变稳定性以及对噪声鲁棒性的优点, 有助于提高储层厚度预测的准确率.在此基础上, 在有限测井数据的条件下, 利用随机森林算法建立多尺度时频属性与测井解释厚度之间的非线性关系, 实现湖相碳酸盐岩储层预测.模型数据的预测结果表明, 与基于传统地震振幅属性的厚度预测和基于二维小波变换的储层厚度预测对比, 本文所提的厚度预测方法具有最优的性能.叠后三维地震数据的预测结果表明, 与基于传统地震振幅属性的厚度预测和基于二维小波变换的储层厚度预测对比, 本文所提方法的厚度预测结果与实际钻井数据误差更小, 提高了储层厚度预测的精度, 清晰刻画了灰礁、灰滩与灰泥等三种沉积亚相的空间展布, 有利于后续井位部署和优化.

     

相位编码多次波逆时偏移成像

随着勘探地质体复杂度日益增大, 反射波成像面临诸多挑战, 作为有潜力提升成像精度的重要补充或替代手段的多次波成像愈发受到重视.然而, 串扰噪声的产生阻碍了多次波成像的实际应用.近年来, 作为压制串扰噪声的有效技术之一, 可控阶多次波成像取得了较大研究进展, 但因其需重复计算各阶多次波成像结果, 计算成本昂贵.为此, 本文引入随机相位编码技术, 并与多次波分阶思想结合, 提出相位编码多次波逆时偏移方法: 首先, 对各阶多次波进行随机相位编码(含随机时间延迟与极性反转); 其次, 叠加编码后的各阶多次波, 产生多次波超道集; 最后, 以编码后0至(N-1)阶多次波组成的超道集为虚拟震源进行正向延拓, 同时反传编码后1至N阶多次波所组成的超道集, 并进行互相关, 得到各阶多次波联合成像结果.本文所提方法能够同步使用各阶多次波, 实现各阶多次波联合成像, 避免各阶多次波单独进行成像, 从而成倍提升计算效率.本文用两套模拟数据与一套实际数据算例对所提方法进行了测试, 成像结果验证了该方法的可行性、有效性与应用前景.