驻马店市春播期降水分析与趋势预报

利用1959－2001年春播期（3－4月）驻马店月降水资料，分析了春播期降水气候规律。找出与3－4月降水相关性好的因子，建立3，4月降水趋势预报方程。     

DEVELOPMENT OF A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR MANAGING PESTICIDE LOSSES IN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS

1 INTRODUCTION Agricultural use of pesticides has been recognized as one of the important non-point pollution sources in the world, and the pesticide application to agricultural lands has led to large amounts of residues discharged into surface water through runoff (Leonard, 1990). There have been growing concerns about the fate and transport of pesticides in agricultural lands, due to the associated adverse impacts on water environment and human health (Agassi et al., 1995; Ng and Clegg…     

Late Holocene climates of the Near East deduced from Dead Sea level variations and modern regional winter rainfall

The Dead Sea is a terminal lake of one of the largest hydrological systems in the Levant and may thus be viewed as a large rain gauge for the region. Variations of its level are indicative of the climate variations in the region. Here, we present the decadal- to centennial-resolution Holocene lake-level curve of the Dead Sea. Then we determine the regional hydroclimatology that affected level variations. To achieve this goal we compare modern natural lake-level variations and instrumental rainfall records and quantify the hydrology relative to lake-level rise, fall, or stability. To quantify that relationship under natural conditions, rainfall data pre-dating the artificial Dead Sea level drop since the 1960s are used. In this respect, Jerusalem station offers the longest uninterrupted pre-1960s rainfall record and Jerusalem rains serve as an adequate proxy for the Dead Sea headwaters rainfall. Principal component analysis indicates that temporal variations of annual precipitation in all stations in Israel north of the current 200 mm yr⁻¹ average isohyet during 1940–1990 are largely synchronous and in phase (70% of the total variance explained by PC1). This station also represents well northern Jordan and the area all the way to Beirut, Lebanon, especially during extreme drought and wet spells. We (a) determine the modern, and propose the past regional hydrology and Eastern Mediterranean (EM) climatology that affected the severity and length of droughts/wet spells associated with multiyear episodes of Dead Sea level falls/rises and (b) determine that EM cyclone tracks were different in average number and latitude in wet and dry years in Jerusalem. The mean composite sea level pressure and 500-mb height anomalies indicate that the potential causes for wet and dry episodes span the entire EM and are rooted in the larger-scale northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation. We also identified remarkably close association (within radiocarbon resolution) between climatic changes in the Levant, reflected by level changes, and culture shifts in this region.     

A time-space based approach for mapping rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazard

A rainfall-induced shallow landslide is a major hazard in mountainous terrain, but a time-space based approach is still an unsettled issue for mapping rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazards. Rain induces a rise of the groundwater level and an increase in pore water pressure that results in slope failures. In this study, an integrated infinite slope analysis model has been developed to evaluate the influence of infiltration on surficial stability of slopes by the limit equilibrium method. Based on this new integrated infinite slope analysis model, a time-space based approach has been implemented to map the distributed landslide hazard in a GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and to evaluate the shallow slope failure induced by a particular rainfall event that accounts for the rainfall intensity and duration. The case study results in a comprehensive time-space landslide hazard map that illustrates the change of the safety factor and the depth of the wetting front over time.     

Rainfall induced debris flows in pyroclastic deposits, Campania (southern Italy)

A combination of empirical and physically based hydrological models has been used to analyze historical data on rainfall and debris-flow occurrence in western Campania, to examine the correlation between rainfall and debris-flow events.

Rainfall data from major storms recorded in recent decades in western Campania were compiled, including daily series from several rain gauges located inside landslide areas, supplemented by hourly rainfall data from some of the principal storms.

A two-phase approach is proposed. During phase 1, soil moisture levels have been modelled as the hydrological balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration, on a daily scale, using the method of Thornthwaite [Geograph. Rev. 38 (1948) 55].

Phase 2 is related to the accumulation of surplus moisture from intense rainfall, leading to the development of positive pore pressures. These interactions take place on an hourly time scale by the “leaky barrel” (LB) model described by Wilson and Wiezoreck [Env. Eng. Geoscience, 1 (1995) 11]. In combination with hourly rainfall records, the LB model has been used to compare hydrological effects of different storms. The critical level of retained rain water has been fixed by the timing of debris-flow activity, related to recorded storm events.

New rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation in western Campania are proposed. These thresholds are related to individual rain gauge and assume a previously satisfied field capacity condition. The new thresholds are somewhat higher than those plotted by previous authors, but are thought to be more accurate and thus need less conservatism.     

Kinetic energy–rainfall intensity relationship for Central Cebu, Philippines for soil erosion studies

In the study of soil erosion, specifically on detachment of soil particles by raindrop impact, kinetic energy is a commonly suggested indicator of the raindrop's ability to detach soil particles from the soil mass. Since direct measurement of kinetic energy requires sophisticated and costly instruments, the alternative approach is to estimate it from rainfall intensity. The present study aims at establishing a relationship between rainfall intensity and kinetic energy for rainfalls in Central Cebu, Philippines as a preface of a wider regional investigation.

Drop size distributions of rainfalls were measured using the disdrometer RD-80. There are two forms of kinetic energy considered here. One is kinetic energy per unit area per unit time (KE_R, J m⁻² h⁻¹) and the other is kinetic energy per unit area per unit depth (KE, J m⁻² mm⁻¹). Relationships between kinetic energy per unit area per unit time (KE_R) and rainfall intensity (I) were obtained using linear and power relations. The exponential model and the logarithmic model were fitted to the KE–I data to obtain corresponding relationships between kinetic energy per unit area per unit depth of rainfall (KE) and rainfall intensity (I). The equation obtained from the exponential model produced smaller standard error of estimates than the logarithmic model.     

Dynamics of mule deer forage in the Sonoran Desert

Forage availability for mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in the Sonoran Desert depends on plant biomass, which is influenced by rainfall. We determined how rainfall, temperature and plant characteristics affected biomass of deer forage. We measured forage biomass, rainfall and temperature every 3 months from April 2000 to December 2002. Quarterly rainfall ranged from <1 to 57 mm, and forage biomass in desert washes fluctuated between 6 and 34 g m⁻². There was a positive relationship between forage biomass and rainfall the previous six months (p<0.001), and a negative relationship between biomass and average temperature the previous 3 months (p<0.001). Quarterly forage growth was positively influenced by rainfall (p<0.001) and negatively influenced by forage biomass (p<0.001). The relationships between deer forage and environmental factors established here will be useful in understanding population ecology of mule deer as part of an interactive model of plant–herbivore dynamics in arid environments.     

An analysis of storm-induced landslides in colluvial soils overlying mudrock sequences, southeastern Ohio, USA

In late-June, 1998, a series of thunderstorms dropped 16.5 cm (6.5 in.) of rain in a 72-h period over southeastern Ohio, causing extensive flooding, six deaths, and 179 million dollars in property damage. The storms also triggered more than 60 shallow landslides along a 64 km (40-mi) stretch of Interstate 77 between Buffalo and Marietta, Ohio. Almost all of the landslides were translational, occurring along the contact between colluvial soils and the underlying bedrock (shales, claystones, mudstones). Six sites were selected in the affected area for a detailed study of the shallow landslides. At each site, a record was made of the stratigraphy, slope geometry, number of landslides, landslide dimensions, hydrologic conditions, and influence of vegetation on landslide distribution. Both colluvial soils and underlying bedrock were sampled for laboratory investigations, which included determination of natural water content, grain size distribution, Atterberg limits, permeability, slake durability, and shear-strength parameters. Data from laboratory tests were used to perform sensitivity and stability analyses with respect to varying slope angles, strength parameters, and thicknesses of saturated colluvial soil. The results of the study indicate that the shallow landslides along Interstate 77 occurred when the colluvial soils reached 90% to 100% saturation, depending upon the slope angles.     

Using CRD method for quantification of groundwater recharge in the Gaza Strip, Palestine

Rainfall is the main source of groundwater recharge in the Gaza Strip area in Palestine. The area is located in the semi-arid zone and there is no source of recharge other than rainfall. Estimation of groundwater recharge from rainfall is not an easy task since it depends on many uncertain parameters. The cumulative rainfall departure (CRD) method, which depends on the water balance principle, was used in this study to estimate the net groundwater recharge from rainfall. This method does not require much data as is the case with other classical recharge estimation methods. The CRD method was carried out using optimisation approach to minimise the root mean square error (RMSE) between the measured and the simulated groundwater head. The results of this method were compared with the results of other recharge estimation methods from literature. It was found that the results of the CRD method are very close to the results of the other methods, but with less data requirements and greater ease of application. Based on the CRD method, the annual amount of groundwater recharge from rainfall in the Gaza Strip is about 43 million m³. An erratum to this article can be found at