青岛奥帆赛高分辨率数值模式系统研制与应用

该文初步建立了青岛奥帆赛高分辨率数值模式系统（包括预报模式和释用模式）。预报模式基于Weather Research & Forecast（WRF）模式V3.0,模式设计为网格数60×50×38,水平分辨率500 m。在IBM小型机上用8个线程作15 h预报所需机时约为1 h 20 min,可满足实时业务预报需要。利用高分辨率边界层模式和城市小区尺度模式对该预报结果进行了动力释用（水平分辨率分别为100 m和10 m）。该模式系统于2008年夏季进行了实时运行试验,模式产品在北京奥运气象服务中心青岛分中心使用。结果表明:该模式系统有较强的稳定性和实用性,对城市热岛、海陆风、地形及建筑物影响等局地环流特征有较好的模拟效果。数值试验分析表明:城市化引起城市热岛效应,增大了海陆温差,使海风加强;城市建筑物拖曳作用使风速减小,从而使海风推进速度减缓;精细下垫面资料的引入对海风等局地环流高分辨率数值模拟至关重要。     

土壤质地对中国区域陆面过程模拟的影响

利用陆面过程模式(CLM3.5)和中国区域两种土壤质地数据(分别来自第二次中国土壤调查SNSS和联合国粮食农业组织FAO),研究了土壤质地变化对于模式模拟的陆表水热变量的影响。结果显示,土壤质地对土壤水文学变量的影响远大于对土壤热力学变量的影响,尤其是对于饱和土壤含水量和饱和水力传导率的影响。对于模式的输出,土壤质地影响比较明显的有土壤湿度、总径流和土壤渗透等水文学变量以及地表潜热、地表感热和土壤热通量等热力学变量,而影响相对较小的有地面吸收的太阳辐射和地表反照率。同时,发现基于SNSS模拟的土壤湿度与站点观测值更加接近。因此,本研究认为基于SNSS土壤质地数据可以有效地改进模式模拟结果,建议以后在陆面模式试验中尽可能使用以观测为基础的SNSS土壤质地数据。     

下垫面非均匀流域的幂指数TOPMODEL的模拟研究

利用取消流域土壤表层饱和导水率0K、土壤饱和导水率有效衰减系数m和地下水补给速率R为空间均匀假设的幂指数TOPMODEL,对流域水量平衡各分量进行敏感性研究试验,揭示空间非均匀性对幂指数TOPMODEL模拟结果的影响。从特定研究流域所得结果中可得的主要结论有:1)0K、m和R的空间变化对流域的逐日地表径流和基流以及逐日总径流有影响,针对设定的0K、m和R的空间变化,其中m的空间变化较明显地增加了逐日地表径流和洪峰流量。2)就设定的0K、m和R的空间变化而论,对流域多年平均年总径流以及蒸发模拟结果影响不大,但改变了径流在地表径流和基流之间的分配;其中R的空间变化影响最显著,m和0K的空间变化影响则较小。     

高速公路路面温度极值预报模型研究

应用地表热量平衡方程,在太阳短波辐射、大气和地面长波辐射、感热和潜热等参数化方案的基础上,提出一种用于预报高速公路路面温度极值的数值模型.并利用沪宁高速公路梅村站和仙人山站2006年7月8日-12月31日的逐分钟的各要素实测数据对模型的有效性进行验证,结果表明:模型的平均绝对误差为1.32 ℃,预报误差在±3 ℃以内的频率高达85.23%,且对冬季路面温度低于0 ℃时的预报误差基本在-1～0 ℃,可以运用于冬季高速公路路面溜滑的实际预报中.     

Episodic Performance and Sensitivity of the Urbanized MM5 (uMM5) to Perturbations in Surface Properties in Houston Texas

We present an application of a fine-resolution, meso-urban meteorological model (urbanized MM5; uMM5) to a multi-day episode in August 2000 in the Houston-Galveston Texas, USA region. The model’s episodic performance and its response to small changes in land-cover and surface physical properties in the area, e.g., scenarios of urban heat island mitigation, are evaluated. The model formulation is reviewed along with its parameterizations, data needs, and fine-resolution geometrical input. Development of scenarios of increased urban albedo and vegetative cover is also discussed. This initial application of the uMM5 to the Houston-Galveston region serves as a basis for future model improvements, evaluation of newer data and parameterization applications, testing more aggressive surface modification scenarios, and performing fine-resolution photochemical modelling. It also provides data for comparison of model results with those from previous studies of this region.     

贵州高原起伏地形下日照时间的时空分布

由于坡度、坡向和地形之间相互遮蔽等局地地形因子的影响, 实际起伏地形下的日照时间与水平面上的日照时间有一定差异。该文建立了一种基于数字高程模型 (DEM) 的起伏地形下日照时间的模拟方法, 计算了起伏地形下贵州高原100 m×100 m分辨率日照时间的时空分布。结果表明:坡度、坡向、地形遮蔽对日照时间的影响较大, 实际起伏地形下日照时间的空间分布具有明显地域特征。1月太阳高度角较低, 坡度、坡向的作用非常明显, 地形遮蔽面积较大, 日照时间的空间差异较多, 日照时间为16~142 h, 最大值约为最小值9倍; 7月太阳高度角较高, 地形遮蔽面积相对较小, 日照时间的空间差异相对较少, 日照时间为133~210 h, 最大值为最小值1.6倍, 但由于7月日照时间相对较多, 局地地形对日照时间影响仍明显。4月、10月日照时间及其变化幅度介于1月和7月之间。     

利用多时相Landsat影像生成白洋淀湖底DEM的研究

该文使用多时相Landsat影像,以白洋淀地区为例,阐述基于中等分辨率的可见光—近红外遥感影像生成具有较高精度数字高程模型的非常规方法。对覆盖同一研究区的不同时相影像分别进行淹没区与非淹没区的分类,提取不同水位高度时的水域边界,并以此为相应水位高度的等高线,对获得的等高线进行插值生成数字高程模型(DEM)。这种由一系列遥感影像提取的水域图生成数字高程模型的方法适用于人为干预较少、地形相对简单的湿地或季节性湖泊,可以弥补该类地区数字高程信息不足或精度不够的缺陷。     

Contrastive Study of the Circular Economy of Coal Resource City Based on Ecological Efficiency and C Model

Being a developing country, the evaluation of Chinese circular economy should have its particular criterion that suits for specific national conditions. With the growth of economy, Chinese environmental loads should be permitted to increase at an appropriate speed. Based on this concept, this paper divides the process of evaluation into two parts which include evaluation of development level and evaluation of development performance. Firstly, this paper sets up a reference system which includes Zaozhuang City of Shandong Province, Jiaozuo City of Henan province, Shizuishan City of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and China that is regarded as a region respectively, analyzes the development level of circular economy of coal resource cities based on the evaluation indicator of ecological efficiency, and puts forward the future direction of circular economy of coal resource cities. Secondly, based on C Model of Circular Economy, this paper constructs the measurement model of development performance in which study regions are analyzed in a particular period that is from 2000 to 2020, and evaluates the development performance of circular economy for study regions according to the relationship of growth multiples between economic scale and environmental loads. We can draw several main conclusions: firstly, the development pathways of all four study regions belong to type Ⅱ which resource efficiency is preferred. Secondly, the comprehensive energy consumption efficiencies of coal resource cities were left far behind by China’s average level. Thirdly, the circular economies of all study regions have achieved remarkable progress. Fourthly, the development level of circular economy can be evaluated from two dimensions which consist of horizontal comparison method and vertical comparison method. Fifthly, C model is an appropriate development model that suits for Chinese national conditions and could be selected as an important method to evaluate regional development performance of circular economy.     

少数民族村寨过度商业化个案研究 ——以贵州西江千户苗寨为例

以贵州西江千户苗寨为案例,基于“刺激―机体―反应”分析范式的M-R理论模型,提出影响个体游客商业化感知的外部环境因素和概念模型。通过结构方程模型实证检验影响游客商业化感知的先决变量及各变量间的影响路径,结果表明：旅游空间环境、居民社会形态与旅游产品附属对游客商业化感知具有显著的正相关影响作用,其中,旅游商业环境通过旅游空间环境间接对游客商业化感知产生正向影响作用。在实证分析基础上,从景区管理层面的商业化“刺激―反应”演变过程探讨其驱动机制及利益主体间的关系,认为产权配置不合理及缺乏有效的管理机制是民族村寨类景区过度商业化的根本原因,最后提出调控景区商业化的建议。     

Impact of sample size on geotechnical probabilistic model identification

This paper aims to investigate the impact of sample size on geotechnical probabilistic model identification. First, the copula approach is presented to model the bivariate distribution of geotechnical parameters. Thereafter, the AIC scores are adopted to identify the best-fit marginal distribution and copula. Second, the variation of AIC scores because of small sample size is investigated using simulated data. Finally, the impact of the variation of AIC scores on identification of the best-fit marginal distribution and copula is examined. The minimum sample sizes for geotechnical data are also suggested to obtain a correct identification of the probabilistic models. The results indicate that the AIC scores estimated from a small sample exhibit large variation. The variation of the AIC scores has a significant impact on probabilistic model identification. The marginal distributions and copulas have a low percentage of correct identification when sample size is small. The percentages of correct identification for the marginal distributions and copulas increase with increasing sample size. The correlation coefficient between geotechnical parameters has a much larger impact on probabilistic model identification than the COV of geotechnical parameters. The suggested minimum sample sizes for geotechnical data are useful for guiding practical geotechnical site investigation.