遥感技术的经济效益分析模型与计算方法

本文在遥感技术系统分析的基础上,给出了一个效益分析模型与相应的一些计算方法。在找寻提高遥感效益关键所在及制定遥感发展战略、政策和规划的过程中,它们是一个非常有效的工具。     

我国夏季气温、降水场的时空特征分析

本文用主分量及转动主分量分析方法对我国夏季气温及降水量场(1951—1985年期间)的时空特征进行了研究。从所提取的空间模式中发现气温的解释方差较降水的大,且具有较好的均匀性;从对应的时间分量分析发现气温与降水均具有2—3年的主要变化周期,与东亚大气环流的关系分析中以气温表现较为密切。 对气温和降水场时空特征的稳定性分析表明,无论在持续性、周期性及与东亚大气环流的关系上,进入70年代后均有较明显的变化。比较表明气温场的稳定性较降水为好。 气温场与降水场相互关系分析发现它们有显著的反相关,表现显著的地区为长江中下游、华南及华北等。     

深部气层和干层测井模糊综合评判

深部气层和干层的区分是常规测井解释的难题。认识始于实践。本文依据东濮凹陷深层试采资料,建立了两个模式各四个参数的隶属度曲线,进行气层和干层模糊综合评判研究,并用该地区深层试井资料作了检验,效果颇佳。证明模糊综合评判是区分深部气层和干层的一种行之有效的方法。     

主应变比异常理论在青海祁连地震预报中的应用

本文利用主应变比异常理论分析了祁连建站以来地应变观测资料，认为肃南──祁连断裂段上及附近发生的地震是由于构造应力场的变化，在引张应力状态下，正断层或走滑断层易于活动而导致的。     

位场小波分析的物理解释

采用二进小波变换,构造了位场基小波,通过简单模型,分析了位场信号小波分解与重构的物理实质,阐明了小波变换的频带分布与“归一化”位场空间分布的一致性,以及小波重构的规律,并叙述了小波重构与异常分解的关系.     

Analysis of Physical and Chemical Parameters for Discrimination of Water Origin in a Hydroelectric Reservoir

Seventeen physical and chemical parameters were obtained from a hydroelectric reservoir located in a tropical region in the south of Brazil. Multivariate Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Hierarchical Group Analysis (HGA) were used to identify the parameters discriminating the origin of water from the Tibagi and the Primeiro de Maio River, after it has passed the mixing region. The study was conducted during the dry and rainy seasons in July 2002 and February 2003 at three depths and three sampling sites located 0, 5, and 10 km away from the mixing region. The statistical methods showed to be appropriate for identifying the contribution of each tributary in the water mixing site of a complex water system. The most important discriminating parameter was the absorbance relation A(253 nm)/A(203 nm), followed by the concentrations of Fe(III), Mn(III), and Ni(II). An anthropogenic interference was found in the reservoir due to high Ni(II) and orthophosphate concentrations caused by a nearby town sewage discharge. The interference was more important during the dry periods due to the lower dispersion of the pollutants. Urgent initiatives should be taken from the state government to build treatment stations for the wastewater of the small cities around the Capivara hydroelectric reservoir to prevent the drinking water quality from deteriorating.     

最大树法模糊聚类分析在台湾地区地震预报中的应用

运用最大树法模糊聚类分析,将台湾地区1936年至1989年间的35个地震事件分成了三类6型,并运用聚类结果对1990年至2000年的11个地震事件进行检验,得出了比较合理的检验结果,最后用聚类结果对台湾地区2001年的地震趋势进行了预测,得出了与其它手段一致的预报结果.     

计算机仿真模型的灵敏度分析

计算机仿真模型的灵敏度分析，是仿真建模中的重要研究内容，对实际系统的建立和优化具有重要意义。本文主要研究了在用蒙特卡洛方法仿真随机系统时，其仿真模型（输出）的灵敏度（导数、梯度、Ｈｅｓｓｉａｎ矩阵等），对系统性能函数和灵敏度的参数估计进行了探讨，并结合实际应用系统，对结论进行了分析比较。     

Aseismio fault slip and block deformation in North China

In North China, the tectonic fault-block system enables us to use the Discontinuous Deformation Analysis (DDA) method to simulate the long-term cross-fault survey and other geodetic data related to aseismic tectonic deformation. By the simulation we have found that: (1) Slips on faults with different orientation are generally in agreement with the ENE-WSW tectonic stress field, but the slip pattern of faulting can vary from nearly orthogonal, to pure shear along the strike of the faults, this pattern cannot be explained by simple geometric relation between the strike of the fault and the direction of the tectonic shortening. This phenomenon has been observed at many sites of cross-fault geodetic surveys, and might be caused by the interactions between different blocks and faults. (2) According to the DDA model, if the average aseismic slip rate along major active faults is at the order of several tenths of millimeter per year as observed by the cross-fault geodetic surveys, the typical strain rate inside a block is at the order of 10^–8 year^–1 or less, so that the rate of 10^–6 year^–1, as reported by observations in smaller areas, cannot be the representative deformation rate in this region. (3) Between the slips caused by regional compression and block rotation, there is a possibility that the sense of slip caused by rigid body rotation in two adjacent blocks is opposite to the slip caused by the tectonic compression. But the magnitude of slip resulting from the tectonic compression is much larger than that due to the block rotation. Thus, in general, the slip pattern on faults as a whole agrees with the sense of tectonic compression in this region. That is to say, the slip caused by regional compression dominates the entire slip budget. (4) Based on (3), some observed slips in contradiction to ENE tectonic stress field may be caused by more localized sources, and have no tectonic significance.