Formulation and application of the unsaturated/saturated catchment models SUSCAT and WEC‐C

This paper describes the formulation and application of a coupled unsaturated/saturated model framework developed to investigate the impact of mining on catchment water yield and groundwater dynamics. The model conceptualization was implemented in both a finite‐element (SUSCAT) and finite‐difference (WEC‐C) solution scheme and found to give similar results. The model framework simulates a coupled surface‐water and groundwater system in which a physically based solution scheme was used to simulate one‐dimensional movement through the unsaturated zone, and a distributed model was used to simulate two‐dimensional saturated groundwater flow. Each soil column comprises a series of layers, each layer being connected to adjacent cells. Subsurface lateral flow is considered when any cell within a layer develops a saturated thickness. Simulation results presented are based on a catchment in the Darling Range, Western Australia that was progressively mined and subsequently rehabilitated. The results predicted the groundwater system beneath the mine areas to have a peak rise owing to mining of between 2 and 4 m. Six years after mining, and following vegetation rehabilitation, the groundwater rise had reduced to 1 m above simulated unmined levels. The corresponding streamflow increase as a result of mining was estimated to peak at 21 mm/year and declined to 7·4 mm/year eight years after revegetation of the mined areas. The simulated groundwater response and streamflow results derived from both models were found to be consistent with observed data. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of a data‐based mechanistic modelling (DBM) approach for predicting runoff generation in semi‐arid regions

This paper addresses the application of a data‐based mechanistic (DBM) modelling approach using transfer function models (TFMs) with non‐linear rainfall filtering to predict runoff generation from a semi‐arid catchment (795 km²) in Tanzania. With DBM modelling, time series of rainfall and streamflow were allowed to suggest an appropriate model structure compatible with the data available. The model structures were evaluated by looking at how well the model fitted the data, and how well the parameters of the model were estimated. The results indicated that a parallel model structure is appropriate with a proportion of the runoff being routed through a fast flow pathway and the remainder through a slow flow pathway. Finally, the study employed a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology to evaluate the parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty based on the feasible parameter ranges chosen from the initial analysis of recession curves and calibration of the TFM. Results showed that parameters that control the slow flow pathway are relatively more sensitive than those that control the fast flow pathway of the hydrograph. Within the GLUE framework, it was found that multiple acceptable parameter sets give a range of predictions. This was found to be an advantage, since it allows the possibility of assessing the uncertainty in predictions as conditioned on the calibration data and then using that uncertainty as part of the decision‐making process arising from any rainfall‐runoff modelling project. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dryland salinity processes within the discharge zone of a local groundwater system,southeastern Australia

Detailed study of a localised saline discharge zone in southeastern Australia shows that the salinisation is mostly due to the shallow water table (<1–2 m from the surface). Direct evaporation, particularly in summer, leads to extremely high soil–water salinities at the surface, even though the underlying groundwater is moderately fresh. Groundwater discharge is localised at a break of slope, where the water table intersects the surface, and where the transition from permeable sands to clay-rich sediments inhibits lateral groundwater flow. Higher salt concentrations build up in the clays because of the long residence times during which soil-waters are exposed to evapotranspiration and the reduced potential for salts to be flushed from the sediments. As a result the saline discharge area does not correspond to the part of the site with the largest salt store. Results of the study demonstrate that for dryland salinisation to occur, the groundwater beneath the discharge zone need not be saline, and the presence of a large salt store does not necessarily lead to problems of dryland salinisation if, as in the clay-rich sediments at the site, the salt lies below the pasture root zone. Furthermore, mobilisation of salt stores within low permeability sediments by rising groundwater may be minor.

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Résumé L’étude détaillée d’une zone localisée d’émergence salée au sud-est de l’Australie montre que la salinisation est surtout due à la nappe phréatique (<1–2 m sous la surface). L’évaporation directe, particulièrement durant l’été, conduit à des salinités de l’eau du sol extrêmement élevées à la surface, même si l’eau souterraine sous-jacente est modérément douce. L’émergence de l’eau souterraine est localisée à la rupture de pente, là où la nappe phréatique rencontre la surface du sol et où la transition entre sables perméables et sédiments riches en argiles inhibe les écoulements d’eau souterraine latéraux. Les plus fortes concentrations en sel s’accumulent dans les argiles du fait de temps de résidence élevés, durant lesquels les eaux du sol sont exposées à l’évapotranspiration et à un lessivage réduit des sédiments. Il en résulte que l’aire d’émergence des eaux salées ne correspond pas à la partie du site rencontrant la réserve de sel la plus importante. Les résultats de l’étude démontrent que pour que la salinisation d’une zone aride devienne effective, l’eau souterraine sous la zone ne doit pas être forcément salée, et la présence d’une zone étendue de réserve de sel ne conduit pas forcément à des problèmes de salinisation de zones arides si, comme dans les sédiments argileux du site, le sel ne repose pas sous la zone de pature. De plus, la mobilisation des réserves de sel dans les sédiments peu perméables par la montée du niveau de l’eau souterraine devrait être mineure.

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Resumen El estudio detallado de una zona local de descarga salina en el sudeste de Australia, muestra que la salinización es principalmente debido a un nivel freático poco profundo (<1–2 m de la superficie). La evaporación Directa, particularmente en verano, conlleva a salinidades de suelo-agua sumamente altas en la superficie, aunque el agua subterránea subyacente es moderadamente dulce. La descarga de Agua subterránea se localiza en una interrupción de la ladera, dónde el nivel freático intercepta la superficie, y donde la transición de las arenas permeables a los sedimentos ricos en arcilla inhibe el flujo lateral del agua subterránea. Las concentraciones de sal más altas se forman en las arcillas debido a los tiempos de residencia largos durante los cuales se exponen el conjunto suelo-agua a la evapotranspiración y también por el potencial reducido para las sales de ser expulsadas de los sedimentos. Como resultado el área de la descarga salina no corresponde a la parte del sitio con el contenido de sal más grande. Los resultados del estudio demuestran que para que ocurra la salinización en terrenos secos, el agua subterránea bajo la de zona de descarga no necesita ser salina, y que la presencia de un almacenamiento de sal grande, no necesariamente lleva a los problemas de salinización en terrenos secos si, como en los sedimentos ricos en arcilla del sitio, la sal yace debajo de la zona de raíz de la pastura. Además, la movilidad de depósitos de sal dentro de los sedimentos de permeabilidad baja pueden ser menores, por causa del agua subterránea ascendente.

     

'Situating' Simulation to Model Human Spatio-Temporal Interactions: An Example Using Crime Events

Many social phenomena have a spatio‐temporal dimension and involve dynamic decisions made by individuals. In the past, researchers have often turned to geographic information systems (GIS) to model these interactions. Although GIS provide a powerful tool for examining the spatial aspects of these interactions, they are unable to model the dynamic, individual‐level interactions across time and space. In an attempt to address these issues, some researchers have begun to use simulation models. But these models rely on artificial landscapes that do not take into account the environment in which humans move and interact. This research presents the methodology for ‘situating’ simulation through the use of a new modeling tool, Agent Analyst, which integrates agent‐based modeling (ABM) and GIS. Three versions of a model of street robbery are presented to illustrate the importance of using ‘real’ data to inform agent activity spaces and movement. The successful implementation of this model demonstrates that: (1) agents can move along existing street networks; (2) land use patterns can be used to realistically distribute agent's homes and activities across a city; and (3) the incidence and pattern of street robberies is significantly different when ‘real’ data are used.     

An innovative methodology for the prioritization of sub-catchments for flood control

Iran is dominated by arid and semi-arid climate with sporadic rainfall which creates seasonal floods and causes considerable damages and occasionally loss of life. The current research with the aim of flood damage reduction presents an innovative applied methodology for spatial optimization of flood control measures based on sub-catchments location. The presented methodology determines the contribution of each sub-catchment to the main catchment outlet flood peak and prioritizes sub-catchments for implementation of flood control measures. For this purpose catchment flood hydrographs are simulated by calibration and evaluation of a hydrologic model. The isochrones of the catchment have been computed and drawn and sub-catchment spatial distribution is investigated in relation to isochronal areas. Considering both spatial distribution and flooding potential of sub-catchments and their combined effects on the flood peak, their contribution to flood peak was modified by implementing flood control measure. Testing of this methodology on an experimental catchment indicated that sub-catchments located near the centroid of the catchment with an area of 64.6 km² have the greatest effects on flood peak for the overall catchment with an area of 284.6 km². It was concluded that flood control measures should be concentrated in these sub-catchments as the first priority.     

On the sensitivity of computed higher tidal harmonics to mesh size in a finite element model

A finite element model of the Irish and Celtic Sea regions with a range of grid resolutions is used to examine the influence of resolution upon the higher harmonics of the tide in the region. Comparisons are also made with published results from finite difference models of the area, and observations. Calculations using fine near-shore elements with non-zero water depths in coastal regions were found to be more accurate and less time consuming than those using a zero coastal water depth. A detailed examination of the spatial variability of the higher harmonics in near-shore regions of the eastern Irish Sea particularly the Solway and Morecambe Bay showed significant small-scale variability. This together with the variation in higher harmonics in the eastern Irish Sea and adjacent estuaries, clearly shows the need for an unstructured grid model of the region that can include the estuaries. To match the high resolution of the model in near-shore regions accurate high-resolution topography is required.     

A physically-based method for removing pits in digital elevation models

Spurious pits in digital elevation models (DEMs) are traditionally removed by filling depressions, often creating flat regions that lead to inaccurate estimation of landscape flow directions. In this study, a physical approach based on a simple landscape evolution model is proposed for DEM pit removal. This method, an alternative to traditional geometrical procedures, enforces more realistic slopes and flow directions on topography. The procedure is compared with the method most commonly used in the literature and distributed with commercial GIS software where, generally, elevations of a depression are increased up to the lowest value among neighbouring cells. Several tests are performed and parameters sensitivity is carried out in order to demonstrate the performance of the proposed model as compared to traditional methods.     

Application of GIS and logistic regression to fossil pollen data in modelling present and past spatial distribution of the Colombian savanna

Climate changes affect the abundance, geographic extent, and floral composition of vegetation, which are reflected in the pollen rain. Sediment cores taken from lakes and peat bogs can be analysed for their pollen content. The fossil pollen records provide information on the temporal changes in climate and palaeo-environments. Although the complexity of the variables influencing vegetation distribution requires a multi-dimensional approach, only a few research projects have used GIS to analyse pollen data. This paper presents a new approach to palynological data analysis by combining GIS and spatial modelling. Eastern Colombia was chosen as a study area owing to the migration of the forest–savanna boundary since the last glacial maximum, and the availability of pollen records. Logistic regression has been used to identify the climatic variables that determine the distribution of savanna and forest in eastern Colombia. These variables were used to create a predictive land-cover model, which was subsequently implemented into a GIS to perform spatial analysis on the results. The palynological data from the study area were incorporated into the GIS. Reconstructed maps of past vegetation distribution by interpolation showed a new approach of regional multi-site data synthesis related to climatic parameters. The logistic regression model resulted in a map with 85.7% predictive accuracy, which is considered useful for the reconstruction of future and past land-cover distributions. The suitability of palynological GIS application depends on the number of pollen sites, the distribution of the pollen sites over the area of interest, and the degree of overlap of the age ranges of the pollen records.