Linking Access and Vulnerability: Perceptions of Irrigation and Flood Management in Pakistan

This article reports the results of a survey conducted in four villages in central Pakistan regarding people's perceptions about irrigation‐ and flood‐related issues. The article uses the perception studies methodology from the human ecology school to address the political ecology agenda in resource and hazards geography. The log‐linear analysis of the survey data shows that people are knowledgeable about social power differentials and interactions between various social factors in influencing their access to resources and vulnerability to floods. The article further demonstrates that water users and vulnerable populations are much more likely to suggest social explanations than naturalistic or fatalistic explanations for their differential access to irrigation water and vulnerability to flood hazard.     

不确定性视角下的中国省际人口迁移机制分析

人口迁移过程具有内在的不确定性。贝叶斯模型平均方法（BMA）为不确定性问题提供了行之有效的解决方案。然而,当前该方法多用于线性回归模型在变量选择时出现的模型不确定性问题,很少用于空间建模。本文以2010—2015年中国省际人口迁移流为例,将BMA方法应用于空间OD模型,在考虑网络空间结构的基础上选取迁出地和迁入地各7个解释变量及距离因素,利用马尔可夫链—蒙特卡罗模型综合方法（MC³）进行模型抽样,以后验模型概率为权重计算相应变量的迁出地、迁入地和网络效应等,定量分析不确定性背景下省际人口迁移影响因素和空间机制。结果表明：① BMA模型估计结果更为稳健可靠。与单一模型相比,BMA中变量效应估计的90%可信区间明显缩小,不确定性程度显著降低,结果更为精确;② 区域经济社会发展对省际迁移至关重要。经模型空间抽样后,迁出地人口规模和GDP、迁入地教育水平和迁移存量等的变量后验包含概率大于90%;③ 网络效应在省际迁移过程中不可忽视。所有变量的网络效应占总体效应的40%以上,其中工资、城镇化率、教育和迁移存量等的网络效应（绝对值）大于各自的迁出地和迁入地效应;④ 若不考虑迁移建模中的不确定性,绝大多数区域经济社会变量对省际迁移的影响会被高估。     

鄂尔多斯盆地长武探区三叠系延长组沉积体系研究

在对研究区钻井岩芯观察和录井资料以及测试分析资料的基础上,对长武地区三叠统延长组沉积体系的类型进行了系统深入的研究,结果表明:长武地区延长组主要发育辫状河、辫状河三角洲和湖泊三种沉积体系。辫状河三角洲主要由辫状河三角洲平原、前缘和前辫状河三角洲三种亚相组成。详细讨论了不同沉积体系的特征,进而讨论了不同沉积体系平面展布。在上述基础上建立了沉积模式。     

Forecasting prices of single family homes using GIS-defined neighborhoods

We estimate spatiotemporal models of average neighborhood single family home prices to use in predicting individual property prices. Average home-price variations are explained in terms of changes in average neighborhood house attributes, spatial attributes, and temporal economic variables. Models adopting three different definitions of neighborhoods are estimated with quarterly cross-sectional data over the period 2000–2004 from four cities in Southern California. Heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation problems are detected and adjusted for via a sequential routine. Results of these models suggest that forecasts obtained using city neighborhood average price equations may have advantage over forecasts obtained using city aggregated price equations.      

Influence of masonry infill panels on the vibration and stiffness characteristics of R/C frame buildings

Vibration measurements were performed on two adjacent, three-storey reinforced concrete frame buildings with hollow clay brick infill panels. The first building was a bare frame and the second one was a similar frame infilled with brick panels. The fundamental period for the infilled frame building was much smaller than that of the bare frame building. Using shear beam lumped mass models and the vibration data the actual lateral stiffness of both buildings was identified. The lateral stiffness of the infilled frame building was found to be seven times that of the bare frame building. Four numerical models of the infilled frame building were constructed. The frame and floors were represented using an experimentally validated model and the infill panels by one of three commonly used ‘equivalent diagonal truss’ models or by plane stress finite elements. Only the plane stress finite element model produced a reasonable agreement with the experimental results. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determination of ductility factor considering different hysteretic models

In current seismic design procedures, base shear is calculated by the elastic strength demand divided by the strength reduction factor. This factor is well known as the response modification factor, R, which accounts for ductility, overstrength, redundancy, and damping of a structural system. In this study, the R factor accounting for ductility is called the ‘ductility factor’, R_μ. The R_μ factor is defined as the ratio of elastic strength demand imposed on the SDOF system to inelastic strength demand for a given ductility ratio. The R_μ factor allows a system to behave inelastically within the target ductility ratio during the design level earthquake ground motion. The objective of this study is to determine the ductility factor considering different hysteretic models. It usually requires large computational efforts to determine the R_μ factor. In order to reduce the computational efforts, the R_μ factor is prepared as a functional form in this study. For this purpose, statistical studies are carried out using forty different earthquake ground motions recorded at a stiff soil site. The R_μ factor is assumed to be a function of the characteristic parameters of each hysteretic model, target ductility ratio and structural period. The effects of each hysteretic model to the R_μ factor are also discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Automated calibration applied to watershed‐scale flow simulations

Complexity in simulating the hydrological response in large watersheds over long times has prompted a significant need for procedures for automatic calibration. Such a procedure is implemented in the basin‐scale hydrological model (BSHM), a physically based distributed parameter watershed model. BSHM simulates the most important basin‐scale hydrological processes, such as overland flow, groundwater flow and stream–aquifer interaction in watersheds. Here, the emphasis is on estimating the groundwater parameters with water levels in wells and groundwater baseflows selected as the calibration targets. The best set of parameters is selected from within plausible ranges of parameters by adjusting the values of hydraulic conductivity, storativity, groundwater recharge and stream bed permeability. The baseflow is determined from stream flow hydrographs by using an empirical scheme validated using a chemical approach to hydrograph separation. Field studies determined that the specific conductance for components of the composite hydrograph were sufficiently unique to make the chemical approach feasible. The method was applied to the Big Darby Creek Watershed, Ohio. The parameter set selected for the groundwater system provides a good fit with the estimated baseflow and observed water well data. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种DEM数据无损压缩的方法

数字高程模型（DEM）是网络3维地形可视化系统最重要的数据源之一。而且数据量巨大。数据压缩是缩短DEM在网络上的传输时间和节省存储空间的有效方法和途径。本文提出了用最小二乘预测模型和算术编码实现DEM最佳平均码长。并比较了几种预测方法,推导了最优线性二乘预测模型,优化了自适应算术编码的数据结构以加快编码的进程。最后对不同无损编码技术的压缩结果进行了分析,实验证明本文提出的压缩方案是可行的。     

Effects of Interpolation Errors on the Analysis of DEMs

A suite of methods to interpolate a digital elevation model from a ground survey was evaluated with respect to precision and ability to maintain the shape of the original height data. This shape reliability was evaluated by comparing the spatial patterns of secondary terrain parameters derived from the interpolated elevation data. The best interpolation method for this study area was found to be a spline interpolation, which is somewhat contradictory to findings in the literature. The error and uncertainty found in the results for terrain analysis and modelling tools is important and sometimes distressingly high, even for some frequently used local or context operations on altitude. Positional operations, in which the output is determined more by the position in the topographic structure, seem to give more reliable results. Therefore, the results obtained by terrain analysis and spatial modelling need careful interpretation. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.