Unilateral ARMA processes on a square net by the herringbone method

Because multidimensional ARMA processes have great potential for the simulation of geological parameters such as aquifer permeability, it was important to resolve which of two proposed alternative methods should be used for determining the two-dimensional weighting parameter, , for a unilateral ARMA (1, 0) process on a square net. Practical simulations demonstrates that the correct formulation is: =₁₀/(1+ ₁₀ ² where _r,s is the correlation between lattice points at lagsr and s. When the simulations are performed with correlations of 0.8 or more a residual bias was detected which was found to be caused by a difference in the variance between the one- and two-dimensional models. This can be rectified by modifying the two- dimensional model as follows: z_ij=(z_{i–1, j} + z_{i, j–1}) + a_ij where ²=1/(1 + ₁₀ ² ).     

Shallow landslides in pyroclastic soils: a distributed modelling approach for hazard assessment

An effective assessment of shallow landslide hazard requires spatially distributed modelling of triggering processes. This is possible by using physically based models that allow us to simulate the transient hydrological and geotechnical processes responsible for slope instability. Some simplifications are needed to address the lack of data and the difficulty of calibration over complex terrain at the catchment's scale. We applied two simple hydrological models, coupled with the infinite slope stability analysis, to the May 1998 landslide event in Sarno, Southern Italy. A quasi-dynamic model (Barling et al., 1994) was used to model the contribution to instability of lateral flow by simulating the time-dependent formation of a groundwater table in response to rainfall. A diffusion model [Water Resour. Res. 36 (2000) 1897] was used to model the role of vertical flux by simulating groundwater pressures that develop in response to heavy rainstorms. The quasi-dynamic model overestimated the slope instability over the whole area (more than 16%) but was able to predict correctly slope instability within zero order basins where landslides occurred and developed into large debris flows. The diffusion model simulated correctly the triggering time of more than 70% of landslides within an unstable area amounting to 7.3% of the study area. These results support the hypothesis that both vertical and lateral fluxes were responsible for landslide triggering during the Sarno event, and confirm the utility of such models as tools for hazard planning and land management.     

DEM中线性信息提取方法研究

DEM中线性信息提取方法按照提取时使用信息范围的广度可分为全局方法和局部方法。其中全局方法包括确定水流模型方法和随机水流模型方法,局部方法包括垂向截面方法、水平截面方法和曲面拟合方法。并对各方法及其改进方法进行了研究。     

瞬变电磁法对地下不同位置多个三维薄板探测能力的研究

以层状地层中多个位于不同位置和不同埋深的三维导电薄板为例,对瞬变电磁(TEM)法分辨地下多个三维异常体的能力进行了详细的分析和讨论.模型计算的结果表明,无论异常体与源的距离远近,TEM法对近地表的多个异常体分辨能力总是很好.当多个异常体在垂直方向排列时,TEM法对它们的探测能力最差;当它们以不同埋深沿测线方向排列时,埋深最浅和最近源的异常体最容易探测到;当夹在中间的异常体规模较小、埋深较大时,它的异常场容易被其它异常体所掩盖.总体上讲,无论在源下方还是在接收器下方,TEM法对水平方向多个异常体分辨能力优于垂向上的.     

不同应力路径下砂土的神经网络弹塑性本构模型研究

基于多种应力路径下砂土的加载、卸载和再加载过程的三轴排水试验数据，研究了三种应力路径对屈服面的影响，其结果表明，不同应力路径对砂土的本构模型有着不可忽视的作用。在此基础上，建立了砂土的弹塑性神经网络模型，对相应路径下的本构关系进行了学习。实例分析表明，该模型能够很好地描述具体应力路径下的本构关系，神经网络建模方法具有方便、容错性强的特点，对岩土力学快速、高效数值方法的进一步发展具有重要的参考价值。同时，在这种弹塑性应力-应变关系中，笔者并没有使用塑性势函数，这在目前的弹塑性本构关系的建模中是一种新的尝试。     

InSAR系列讲座5:InSAR系统中的误差传播

作为InSAR系列讲座的第五篇，本文介绍InSAR高程与形变测量中的误差来源，对主要误差源（干涉相位、基线参数和地形数据）推导出误差传播模型。此外，还将讨论地形数据误差对干涉形变测量的影响。     

Testing of the IERS2000 Sub-Daily Earth Rotation Parameter Model

The differences between the new International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) 2000 and the previous IERS1996 sub-daily Earth rotation parameters (ERP) models can reach 0.1 mas (0.001 arc sec) and 0.1 mas/day. The largest differences are seen for the aliasing periods of 14.2 and 360 days, which correspond to the diurnal tidal waves of O1 and (K1, P1), respectively. Precise independent polar motion (PM) rate solutions effectively doubles the sampling rate and allows for effective testing of sub-daily ERP models and other periodical effects at the diurnal and semi-diurnal frequency bands. Since November 12, 2000, when the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Analysis Center of International GPS Service (IGS) has switched to the conventional IERS1996 sub-daily ERP model, from the older model of Herring and Dog (1994), the JPL daily PM rate solutions show no, or greatly reduced 14.2 day amplitude (O1) peaks. This confirmed that the anomalistic amplitudes at 14.2 day period seen for JPL PM solutions prior November 12, 2000 was largely due to the effects of the older sub-daily ERP model on independent PM rate solutions. As indicated by the latest IGS PM rate solutions, which were corrected for the IERS1996 and 2000 model differences, the new IERS2000 sub-daily ERP model is expected to perform equally well as the conventional IERS1996 model.     

Effects of reinforcement slippage on the non‐linear response under cyclic loadings of RC frame structures

This paper discusses the importance of including the bond‐slip effects in assessing the response under cyclic loads of reinforced concrete frames. The discussion is based on analyses performed using numerical models which are simple, computationally efficient and capable of representing the salient features of reinforced concrete frames under both static and dynamic loads. The numerical models comprise a displacement‐based, reinforced concrete frame element with bond‐slip and a rigid beam column joint element with bond‐slip. Two applications illustrate the model accuracy and show the importance of including bond‐slip. The first application considers a reinforced concrete beam‐column subassemblage experimentally tested under cyclic loads. The second application considers the shaking table test of a two‐story one‐bay reinforced concrete frame In both cases the analytical results correlate well with the experimental results in terms of strength, displacement demands and hysteretic energy dissipation. Furthermore, the paper shows how the analyses that include bond‐slip yield a better correlation with the experimental results with respect to the analyses that assume a perfect bond. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地球主磁场的能量密度谱及其长期变化

根据BJ地磁场模型和第8代国际地磁参考场(IGRF)模型，计算并分折了1690～2000年期间地球表面主磁场和分量的能量密度谱及其长期变化。结果表明1690～2000年期间主磁场的能量密度谱一直在减小，其主要原因是由于偶板子磁场的衰减产生的，而非偶板子磁场的能量密度谱在1690～1780年期间减小，1780～1890年增大，1890年以后快速增大。在地磁场总能谱的变化中，Z分量的贡献起主要作用。能量密度随谐波阶数的变化在半对数坐标中近似线性，非偶板子场的等效磁源深度位于核幔边界附近，n＝1，2谐波项的等效磁源位于地球内核边缘，其位置随时间变化。1780和1890年前后是地磁场变化的转折时期。能量密度谱的长期变化存在大约60a的周期规律。     

沉积模型和储层随机建模

沉积模型是地层分析的重要工具，可以分为比例尺模型、概念模型和数学模型三大类型，其中数学模型又可分为确定性模型和随机模型。在实际地层分析及模拟工作中，特别是在小尺度问题的研究中，采用随机模型(或称统计学模型)往往更为有利。储层随机建模技术，作为这方面研究的典范，近年来成为储层预测和风险评价的一项较为有效的手段。然而，由于研究目标的复杂性，不同沉积模型之间的嵌套制约关系亦应引起重视。