Evidence for Neotethys rooted within the Vardar suture zone from the Voras Massif, northernmost Greece

Three conflicting models are currently proposed for the location and tectonic setting of the Eurasian continental margin and adjacent Tethys ocean in the Balkan region during Mesozoic–Early Tertiary time. Model 1 places the Eurasian margin within the Rhodope zone relatively close to the Moesian platform. A Tethyan oceanic basin was located to the south bordering a large “Serbo-Pelagonian” microcontinent. Model 2 correlates an integral “Serbo-Pelagonian” continental unit with the Eurasian margin and locates the Tethys further southwest. Model 3 envisages the Pelagonian zone and the Serbo-Macedonian zone as conjugate continental units separated by a Tethyan ocean that was sutured in Early Tertiary time to create the Vardar zone of northern Greece and former Yugoslavia. These published alternatives are tested in this paper based on a study of the tectono-stratigraphy of a completely exposed transect located in the Voras Mountains of northernmost Greece. The outcrop extends across the Vardar zone, from the Pelagonian zone in the west to the Serbo-Macedonian zone in the east.Within the Voras Massif, six east-dipping imbricate thrust sheets are recognised. Of these, Units 1–4 correlate with the regional Pelagonian zone in the west (and related Almopias sub-zone). By contrast, Units 5–6 show a contrasting tectono-stratigraphy and correlate with the Paikon Massif and the Serbo-Macedonian zone to the east. These units form a stack of thrust sheets, with Unit 1 at the base and Unit 6 at the top. Unstacking these thrust sheets places ophiolitic units between the Pelagonian zone and the Serbo-Macedonian zone, as in Model 3. Additional implications are, first, that the Paikon Massif cannot be seen as a window of Pelagonian basement, as in Model 1, and, secondly, Jurassic andesitic volcanics of the Paikon Massif locally preserve a gneissose continental basement, ruling out a recently suggested origin as an intra-oceanic arc.We envisage that the Almopias (Vardar) ocean rifted in Triassic time, followed by seafloor spreading. The Almopias ocean was consumed beneath the Serbo-Macedonian margin in Jurassic time, generating subduction-related arc volcanism in the Paikon Massif and related units. Ophiolites were emplaced onto the Pelagonian margin in the west and covered by Late Jurassic (pre-Kimmeridgian) conglomerates. Other ophiolitic rocks formed within the Vardar zone (Ano Garefi ophiolite, Unit 4) in latest Jurassic–Early Cretaceous time and were not deformed until Early Tertiary time. The Vardar zone finally sutured in the Early Tertiary creating the present imbricate thrust structure of the Voras Mountains.     

Estimation of regional material yield from coastal landslides based on historical digital terrain modelling

High‐resolution historical (1942) and recent (1994) digital terrain models were derived from aerial photographs along the Big Sur coastline in central California to measure the long‐term volume of material that enters the nearshore environment. During the 52‐year measurement time period, an average of 21 000 ± 3100 m³ km^?1 a^?1 of material was eroded from nine study sections distributed along the coast, with a low yield of 1000 ± 240 m³ km^?1 a^?1 and a high of 46 700 ± 7300 m³ km^?1 a^?1. The results compare well with known volumes from several deep‐seated landslides in the area and suggest that the processes by which material is delivered to the coast are episodic in nature. In addition, a number of parameters are investigated to determine what influences the substantial variation in yield along the coast. It is found that the magnitude of regional coastal landslide sediment yield is primarily related to the physical strength of the slope‐forming material. Coastal Highway 1 runs along the lower portion of the slope along this stretch of coastline, and winter storms frequently damage the highway. The California Department of Transportation is responsible for maintaining this scenic highway while minimizing the impacts to the coastal ecosystems that are part of the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary. This study provides environmental managers with critical background data on the volumes of material that historically enter the nearshore from landslides, as well as demonstrating the application of deriving historical digital terrain data to model landscape evolution. Published in 2005 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geostatistical simulation of random fields with bivariate isofactorial distributions by adding mosaic models

This work deals with the geostatistical simulation of a family of stationary random field models with bivariate isofactorial distributions. Such models are defined as the sum of independent random fields with mosaic-type bivariate distributions and infinitely divisible univariate distributions. For practical applications, dead leaf tessellations are used since they provide a wide range of models and allow conditioning the realizations to a set of data via an iterative procedure (simulated annealing). The model parameters can be determined by comparing the data variogram and madogram, and enable to control the spatial connectivity of the extreme values in the realizations. An illustration to a forest dataset is presented, for which a negative binomial model is used to characterize the distribution of coniferous trees over a wooded area.     

Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty

Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can be implemented.     

A comparative study of concentrated plasticity models in dynamic analysis of building structures

Concentrated plasticity (CP) models are frequently used in static and dynamic building analysis and have been implemented in available commercial software. This investigation deals with three different CP‐models, a simplified macroelement model (SEM) for a complete building story, a frame element with elasto‐plastic interaction hinges (PH), and a frame element with fiber hinges (FB). The objectives of this work are to evaluate the quality of the earthquake responses predicted by these models and to identify important aspects of their implementation and limitations for their use in dynamic analysis. The three elements are tested in a single‐story asymmetric plan building and in a three‐story steel building. Results show that base shear and global response values are usually computed with better accuracy than interstory deformations and local responses. Besides, the main limitation of elasto‐plastic CP models is to control the displacement offsets that result from perfect elasto‐plastic behavior. On the other hand, calibration of the SEM‐model shows that global responses in steel structures may be computed within 20% error in the mean at a computational cost two orders of magnitude smaller than that of the other CP elements considered. However, the three element models considered lead to increasing levels of accuracy in the dynamic response and their use depends on the refinement of the analysis performed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incorporating Spatial Dependence in Predictive Vegetation Models: Residual Interpolation Methods*

Predictive vegetation modeling can be used statistically to relate the distribution of vegetation across a landscape as a function of important environmental variables. Often these models are developed without considering the spatial pattern that is inherent in biogeographical data, resulting from either biotic processes or missing or misspecified environmental variables. Including spatial dependence explicitly in a predictive model can be an efficient way to improve model accuracy with the available data. In this study, model residuals were interpolated and added to model predictions, and the resulting prediction accuracies were assessed. Adding kriged residuals improved model accuracy more often than adding simulated residuals, although some alliances showed no improvement or worse accuracy when residuals were added. In general, the prediction accuracies that were not increased by adding kriged residuals were either rare in the sample or had high nonspatial model accuracy. Regression interpolation methods can be an important addition to current tools used in predictive vegetation models as they allow observations that are predicted well by environmental variables to be left alone, while adjusting over‐ and underpredicted observations based on local factors.