Evaluation of four hydrological models for operational flood forecasting in a Canadian Prairie watershed

The complexities of the Prairie watersheds, including potholes, drainage interconnectivities, changing land-use patterns, dynamic watershed boundaries and hydro-meteorological factors, have made hydrological modelling on Prairie watersheds one of the most complex task for hydrologists and operational hydrological forecasters. In this study, four hydrological models (WATFLOOD, HBV-EC, HSPF and HEC-HMS) were developed, calibrated and tested for their efficiency and accuracy to be used as operational flood forecasting tools. The Upper Assiniboine River, which flows into the Shellmouth Reservoir, Canada, was selected for the analysis. The performance of the models was evaluated by the standard statistical methods: the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, correlation coefficient, root mean squared error, mean absolute relative error and deviation of runoff volumes. The models were evaluated on their accuracy in simulating the observed runoff for calibration and verification periods (2005–2015 and 1994–2004, respectively) and also their use in operational forecasting of the 2016 and 2017 runoff.     

Eclogites of southern Henan and northern Hubei Provinces, central China

Abstract According to field occurrence and P-T condition, eclogites of southern Henan and northern Hubei Provinces can be divided into two types: medium temperature (MT) and low temperature (LT) eclogites. MT eclogite occurs as layers or lenticular bodies within migmatized gneiss of the Dabie Group. This study is the first to report an occurrence of the assemblages coesite and kyanite + talc in this area. Garnet exhibits a distinct prograde compositional zoning and has mineral inclusions with rotational textures indicating syntectonic growth. Five evolutionary stages are outlined. (1) Pre-eclogite stage, determined by the inclusions of barroisite + zoisite + quartz in the cores of zoned garnets. (2) Eclogite stage, characterized by garnet + omphacite + kyanite ± talc + coesite + rutile, represents the peak metamorphism. The peak conditions are estimated to be T = 600-700°C, P >27 kb. (3) Glaucophane stage, without an appearance of plagioclase, is assigned to a transitional stage. Blades of glaucophane form rims around garnet grains as a result of the reaction talc + jadeite = glaucophane. This marks the beginning of retrograde metamorphism. (4) Symplectite stage, where eclogitic minerals break down, and Amp + Pl symplectite develops around garnet or omphacite; (5) Later retrograde stage is represented by epidote-amphibolite assemblages. Low temperature eclogite appears as blocks in the Qijiaoshan Formation (part of the Susong Group). Four stages can be identified: (1) Pre-eclogite stage, amphibole + epidote + sphene inclusions occur in garnet core; (2) Eclogite stage, consists of garnet + omphacite + rutile + quartz + phengite + glaucophane + zoisite. The peak conditions are T = 490-560°C, P <15 kb; (3) Symplectitic stage, is characterized by the breakdown of eclogitic minerals; (4) Greenschist facies stage, is recorded by a greenschist facies assemblage. The difference between the two types of eclogites suggests contrasting processes. A model is proposed whereby partial melting of continental crust and the emplacement of tonalite occurs during the exhumation of ultrahigh-pressure eclogite terrain.     

The variation of soil erodibility with slope position in a cultivated canadian prairie landscape

This study examined the variation in soil erodibility along hillslopes in a Prairie landscape. The soil loss produced by simulated rainfall on undisturbed soils was used as an index of relative soil erodibility. Relative erodibility, and several soil properties, were measured at the summit, shoulder, midslope footslope and toeslope of 11 slope transects in an area of cultivated grassland soils on hummocky glacial till. The variation of erodibility with slope position was statistically significant, and slope position explained about 40 per cent of the variation in the erodibility measurements. Erodibility was 14 per cent higher on the shoulder and midslope, and 21 per cent lower on the toeslope, than on the summit and footslope. Local variation in erodibility along slopes was considered to be an important control on patterns of soil erosion in the landscape. The variation of erodibility along the slopes reflected soil property trends. The greatest erodibility was associated with upper slope positions where soils tended to be shallow, coarse, poorly leached and low in organic matter, while lower erodibility was found at lower slope positions with deep, organic-rich and leached soils. Of the individual soil properties considered, silt and sand content were the most highly correlated with erodibility. The results, together with results from other studies, also suggest that net erosion and erodibility are positively related.     

吉黑东部花岗岩类的稳定同位素组成

吉黑东部花岗岩类分布广泛，形成历史漫长，岩石类型齐全。按成因类型划分，以I型为主，A型次之，S型很少，M型极少。其稳定同位素组成独特，大多数岩体锶初始值低，氧同位素正常或低，铅同位素以低^204Pb和高^206Pb/^204Pb、^207Pb/^204Pb、^208Pb/^204Pb为主，钕初始值高，说明其基底岩石成熟度低，地幔物质混入量较多。这些特点明显区别于华北和华南的花岗岩。     

On the ages of flood basalt events

We review available data constraining the extent, volume, age and duration of all major Phanerozoic continental flood basalts (CFB or traps) and oceanic plateaus (OP), together forming the group of large igneous provinces (LIP), going from the smallest Columbia flood basalts at ～16 Ma to the as yet ill-known remnants of a possible trap at ～360 Ma in eastern Siberia. The 16 traps (CFB and OP) reviewed form a rather unimodal distribution with an initial modal volume of the order of 2.5 Mkm³. Most provinces agree with a rather simple first order model in which volcanism may have lasted of the order of 10 Ma, often resulting in continental break-up, but where most of the volume was erupted in about 1 Ma or sometimes less. This makes CFBs/OPs (LIPs) major geodynamic events, with fluxes exceeding the total output of present day hot spots and even possibly exceeding over short times the entire crustal production of mid-ocean ridges. The proposed correlation between trap ages and the ages of several geological events, including mass extinctions and oceanic anoxia, is found to have improved steadily as more data have become available, to the point that the list of trap ages may coincide with many major divisions in the geological time scale. The four largest mass extinctions in the last 260 Ma coincide to the best resolution available with four traps, making a causal connection between the two through some form of catastrophic climatic perturbations the most likely hypothesis. The time sequence of LIPs appears to have been random and there is no robust evidence for long time trends in the corresponding crustal production rate over the last 260 Ma.     

海平面变化定量研究

海平面变化规律是层序地层学研究的核心内容之一，全球海平面变化比相对海平面变化更具对比意义，用求构造沉降的方法，结合沉积物负载、压实、水深、水载等校正、通过数学计算定量地求出Ｒ１曲线（经压帝、水深和水载荷校正，只含热影响，全球海平面变化及潜在的局部构造事件等引起的沉降），用最小二乘法去除热引起民的构造沉降，获Ｒ２海平面变化曲线，近似地反映了全球海平面变化中最常见的再经最佳多项式拟合，去掉长期波动的海     

浙闽沿岸潮余流的空间变化

利用非结构网格海洋环流模式(FVCOM),研究了浙闽沿岸潮余流的空间变化及其生成机制。结果表明,浙闽沿岸的潮余流具有明显的水平二维特征。根据潮余流的流速和方向,浙闽沿岸的潮余流可分为3个区域,自东北向西南,依次为区域I、区域II和区域III。区域I和区域III的潮余流较强,前者流速为0.6~2.5 cm/s,方向沿等深线指向西南;后者流速为0.5~1.5 cm/s,方向沿等深线指向东北。区域II的潮余流较弱,均小于0.6 cm/s,方向自岸向海逆时针旋转,离岸较近区域方向指向西南,离岸较远区域方向指向东北。结合浙闽沿岸的潮余流和海底地形进行分析,发现潮余流与地形β效应ddx1H成正比,这与前人研究获得的海底地形对潮流的整流机制相符合,表明浙闽沿岸海域陡峭的海底地形对潮流有明显的整流作用。     

Potential Effects of Global Warming on Waterfowl Populations Breeding in the Northern Great Plains

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the Northern Great Plains is the most important breeding area for waterfowl in North America. Historically, the size of breeding duck populations in the PPR has been highly correlated with spring wetland conditions. We show that one indicator of climate conditions, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), is strongly correlated with annual counts (from 1955 to 1996) of both May ponds (R2 = 0.72, p < 0.0001) and breeding duck populations (R2 = 0.69, p < 0.0001) in the Northcentral U.S., suggesting the utility of PDSI as an index for climatic factors important to wetlands and ducks. We then use this relationship to project future pond and duck numbers based on PDSI values generated from sensitivity analyses and two general circulation model (GCM) scenarios. We investigate the sensitivity of PDSI to fixed changes in temperature of 0°C, +1.5°C, +2.5°C, and +4.0°C in combination with fixed changes in precipitation of -10%, +0%, +7%, and +15%, changes spanning the range of typically-projected values for this region from human-induced climatic change. Most (11 of 12) increased temperature scenarios tested result in increased drought (due to greater evapotranspiration under warmer temperatures) and declining numbers of both wetlands and ducks. Assuming a doubling of CO2 by 2060, both the equilibrium and transient GCM scenarios we use suggest a major increase in drought conditions. Under these scenarios, Northcentral U.S. breeding duck populations would fluctuate around means of 2.1 or 2.7 million ducks based on the two GCMs, respectively, instead of the present long-term mean of 5.0 million. May pond numbers would fluctuate around means of 0.6 or 0.8 million ponds instead of the present mean of 1.3 million. The results suggest that the ecologically and economically important PPR could be significantly damaged by climate changes typically projected. We make several recommendations for policy and research to help mitigate potential effects.     

应变能积累分析方法在冀鲁豫交界区地震活动趋势分析中的应用

利用应变能积累分析方法对冀鲁豫交界区地震活动特征进行分析研究,得到该区地震活动的一些规律,并对该区未来地震活动趋势进行分析判断,认为该区当前处于应变能积累一释放阶段后期,剩余能量较少,因此未来几年内,发生大地震的可能性很小,发生的最大地震应为中等或稍强地震。     

白垩纪大火成岩省与地幔对流

白垩纪事件是全球非常明显和重要的一次地质突发事件,包括洋壳的超巨量形成,地磁正超时达41Ma之久(124~83 Ma),海水温度大幅度升高,黑色页岩沉积和石油形成的大量增长,海平面的快速上升,大气CO2水平的急剧升高,以及伴生的生物灭绝事件等。中—新生代的大火成岩省与冈瓦纳超大陆的裂解伴生,是超级地幔热柱产生的结果,而与欧亚超大陆的形成伴生分散火成岩省,是超级冷地幔下降流的结果,两者的联合构成全地幔对流的格局。全地幔对流模型为白垩纪地质演化、生物演化和环境演化的突变提供地球深部过程的约束。