广州市人口空间分布特征及演变趋势分析

本文分析了广州市人口空间分布现状特征，历史上发展特点和建国后至改革开放前人口发展情况，并对改革开放以来人口空间分布的变化作了动态分析，发现改革开放以前广州市中心区和郊区人口密度都在增加，但市中心区增加较快，而改革开放以来在广州市总人口较速增长的情况下，内部人口变动日趋明显，中心区人口密度在减少，外围区人口密度在增加，认为广州市的人口分布正从年龄阶段转向成熟阶段。     

中国区域性极端降水事件及人口经济暴露度研究

基于中国1960-2014年771个气象站的逐日降水资料,选取有效降水序列95百分位数作为极端降水阈值,将既定持续时间尺度和连续面积上超过阈值的降水事件定义为区域性极端降水事件。采用强度-面积-持续时间（Intensity-Area-Duration,IAD）法,根据极端降水事件空间和时间上的连续性特征,对不同持续时间的区域性极端降水事件演变趋势及暴露于极端降水事件下的人口和国内生产总值进行研究。结果表明:（1）相对强度最大的区域性极端降水事件主要集中在1960-1968、1991-1999和2006-2013年3个时段;（2）区域性极端降水事件最强中心主要分布在长江以南和东北地区,发生在北方的多为单日极端降水,南方多为持续多日的极端降水;（3）1960-2014年区域性极端降水事件影响面积有所增大,相对强度变化不明显;（4）暴露于极端降水事件影响区域内的人口和国内生产总值均呈显著增大趋势,暴露人口最多的年份在1983年,达到2408万人/d,暴露国内生产总值最多的年份在1998年,达到20亿元/d。      

1961—2010年中国气候生产潜力时空格局变化及其潜在可承载人口分析

以气温、降水格点数据为基础,采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算了中国气候生产潜力(CPP),并从气候的角度估算了耕地上气候资源潜在可承载的人口数,以便增强了解气候变化的影响及气候资源最大人口支撑能力。结果表明:1961—2010年中国CPP总体呈突变性增加趋势,1987年为突变点,年最低、最高及平均值分别为689. 18、814. 56和744. 05 g·m^-2·a^-1。空间上呈现出从西北向东南逐渐递增的带状分布,其中高值区主要分布在华南大部,最高值达2103. 56 g·m^-2·a^-1;低值区主要分布在西、北部地区,最低值为39. 28 g·m^-2·a^-1。2001—2010年中国大部分地区CPP年平均值相对于1961—2010年多年平均值变化幅度不大,变化比例高的地区基本上分布于中国西、北部,其中增加的区域达82%,主要分布在华东地区、新疆西部、西藏北部及青海大部,远大于缩减的区域(17%)。1995—2010年,基于公里网格的耕地气候潜在可承载人口为46—2180人·km^-2,全国平均值最低的年份为1130人·km^-2,对应的实际人口为0—49729人·km^-2,全国平均值均不高于137人·km^-2;全国实际总人口为11. 43—13. 04亿,耕地气候潜在可承载总人口为19. 72—20. 22亿,前后比值为58%—65%。这表明,中国耕地生产力未达到气候生产潜力,尚有一定的开发潜力;实际人口在中国大部分地区均没有超出气候资源潜在可承载的最大人口,然而在少数省市(如生态环境脆弱的青海省以及经济发达的大城市及沿海地区)已超出。     

大菱鲆(Scophthalmus maximus)四个不同地理群体数量形态特征比较

采用聚类分析、单因子方差分析和主成分分析方法,对4个不同地理群体大菱鲆进行了12项形态性状的测定,比较了4个群体的外部形态特征。聚类分析结果表明,4种大菱鲆群体中,丹麦和挪威之间及英国和法国之间的差异较小,丹麦、挪威和英国、法国之间的差异较大。方差分析多重比较结果表明,4个群体在部分形态特征上表现出明显差异,其中,英国和法国群体、挪威和丹麦群体之间形态特征差异显著指标较少,丹麦群体和英国群体、丹麦群体和法国群体、挪成群体和英国群体、挪威群体和法国群体之间差异显著指标较多。主成分分析构建了3个反映形态特征信息的综合性指标——主成分1、主成分2和主成分3,三者的贡献率分别为38.663%、14.117%和8.976%,三个主成分的累积贡献率为61.756%.分析结果显示,英国和法国群体、挪威和丹麦群体之间形态差异不显著,丹麦群体和英国群体、丹麦群体和法国群体、挪威群体和英国群体、挪威群体和法国群体之间形态差异显著,且差异主要来源于主成分1,而主成分1主要由经方差分析多重比较差异显著的指标组成,显然,主成分分析与聚类分析、方差分析的结论基本上是类似的,它们从不同的角度反映了群体间的形态学差异.     

Positive feedback fishery: Population consequences of ‘crab-tiling’ on the green crab Carcinus maenas

Collection of marine invertebrates for use as fishing bait is a substantial activity in many parts of the world, often with unknown ecological consequences. As new fisheries develop, it is critical for environmental managers to have high quality ecological information regarding the potential impacts, in order to develop sound management strategies. Crab-tiling is a largely unregulated and un-researched fishery, which operates commercially in the south-west UK. The target species is the green crab Carcinus maenas. Those crabs which are pre-ecdysis and have a carapace width greater than 40 mm are collected to be sold to recreational anglers as bait. Collection involves laying artificial structures on intertidal sandflats and mudflats in estuaries. Crabs use these structures as refugia and are collected during low tide. However, the effect that this fishery has on populations of C. maenas is not known. The impact of crab-tiling on C. maenas population structure was determined by sampling crabs from tiled estuaries and non-tiled estuaries using baited drop-nets. A spatially and temporarily replicated, balanced design was used to compare crab abundance, sizes and sex ratios between estuaries. Typically, fisheries are associated with a reduction in the abundance of the target species. Crab-tiling, however, significantly increased C. maenas abundance. This was thought to be a result of the extra habitat in tiled estuaries, which probably provides protection from natural predators, such as birds and fish. Although crabs were more abundant in tiled estuaries than non-tiled estuaries, the overall percentage of reproductively active crabs in non-tiled estuaries was greater than in tiled estuaries. As with most exploited fisheries stocks, crabs in exploited (tiled) estuaries tended to be smaller, with a modal carapace width of 20–29 mm rather than 30–39 mm in non-tiled estuaries. The sex ratio of crabs however; was not significantly different between tiled and non-tiled estuaries. These results illustrate the potential to manage fished populations using habitat provision to mitigate the effects of fishing pressure.     

Rapid invasion of Crassostrea gigas into the German Wadden Sea dominated by larval supply

Invasions of non-indigenous species into coastal habitats have been a frequent phenomenon in the last decades, sometimes with significant impact on the receiving ecosystem. However, the understanding of the entire process and especially the relative importance of larval supply and local recruitment remains unclear. In this study, we simulate the invasion of a benthic invertebrate into a previously uncolonised habitat over several years and validate the results with field data. Therefore, we present field data from a monitoring programme revealing the rapid invasion of the oyster Crassostrea gigas into the East Frisian Wadden Sea, North Sea, between 2003 and 2005. The applied model combines a simple, spatially-explicit population dynamics model for the adult stage with a particle tracking model for the larval stage of the life cycle. Simulation results are able to reproduce the large-scale pattern of the field data and indicate a domination of larval supply on the population dynamics in the early stage of the invasion. Though monitoring and simulations suggest a single larval source outside the study area in the west, the population dynamics in the eastern part is only explainable with an additional source within the study area attributed to an unintentional input of juveniles by mussel fishery. High sensitivities to uncertain parameters result in distinct deviations between monitoring and simulations at particular sites. Especially the impact of site-specific variations of the post-settlement mortality underlines the variability of local recruitment conditions and indicates the need for spatially resolved information for exact predictions.     

Integration of nighttime light remote sensing images and taxi GPS tracking data for population surface enhancement

The population distribution grid at fine scales better reflects the distribution of residents and plays an important role in investigating urban systems. The recent years have witnessed a growing trend of applying the nighttime light data to the estimation of population at micro levels. However, using the nighttime light data alone to estimate population may cause the overestimation problem due to excessively high light radiance in specific types of areas such as commercial zones and transportation hubs. In dealing with this issue, this study used taxi trajectory data that delineate people’s movements, and explored the utility of integrating the nighttime light and taxi trajectory data in the estimation of population in Shanghai at the spatial resolution of 500 m. First, the initial population distribution grid was generated based on the NPP-VIIRS nighttime light data. Then, a calibration grid was created with taxi trajectory data, whereby the initial population grid was optimized. The accuracy of the resultant population grid was assessed by comparing it with the refined survey data. The result indicates that the final population distribution grid performed better than the initial population grid, which reflects the effectiveness of the proposed calibration process.     

代表性人口空间分布数据集的精度评价——以2010年广东省为例

以人口密度差异显著的广东省为研究区,比较Worldpop、GPW v4和2种中国公里网格人口分布数据集的空间分布一致性,并以第六次全国人口普查数据为真值,按人口密度分为高、中、低3组,从误差的数值分布和空间分布两方面定量评价4种数据集的精度,最后讨论估算误差的可能来源及数据适用性。结果表明,4种网格人口数据集中Worldpop整体精度最高,且在人口密集区的精度也是最高;GPW v4在低人口密度和中人口密度区域精度略高于Worldpop,但对镇街内人口分布细节刻画不够详细;2种中国公里网格人口分布数据集精度较前两者低,主要受空间化方法和模型变量的选择所限制。Worldpop适合用于人口密度中等及人口密度高区域的精细化研究,GPW v4适合用于长时序、最小研究单元大于镇街的研究,第一种中国公里网格人口分布数据集适合用于需要考虑镇街内人口分布和空间异质性的研究,第二种中国公里网格人口分布数据集适用于需要考虑人口分布细节和空间格局变化的长时序研究。     

日本对虾野生种群和养殖种群遗传结构的RAPD标记研究

于１９９７年４月在福建和山东青岛分别采集地虾野生种群和养殖群体的样品,采用ＲＡＰＤ标记技术对其遗传结构进行初步研究。用２０个随机引物在野生种群和养殖群体中分别扩增出１５７和１５３条ＤＮＡ片段,其中多态性段数分别为８５和５８条,多态性片段的比例分别为５４．１４％和３７．９１％,平均杂合度分别为０．２５１７和０．１３４３。     

广东“三普”至“四普”间人口城镇化状况分析

广东省改革开放的前沿，在第３、第４两次普查间人口城镇化的特征是：发展速度快，人口流动性增强，呈强的面上扩展态势，地区差异明显。这些特征的形成与广东省的社会经济发展特点和格局密切相关。未来２０年内广东省人口城镇化将大致保持现在的特点并持续地较快发展。