Analysis of soil surface component patterns affecting runoff generation. An example of methods applied to Mediterranean hillslopes in Alicante (Spain)

Spatial patterns of soil surface components (vegetation, rock fragments, crusts, bedrock outcrops, etc.) are a key factor determining hydrological functioning of hillslopes. A methodological approach to analyse the patterns of soil surface components at a detailed scale is proposed in this paper. The methods proposed are applied to two contrasting semi-arid Mediterranean hillslopes, and the influence of soil surface component patterns on the runoff response of the slopes was analysed. A soil surface components map was derived from a high resolution photo-mosaic obtained in the field by means of a digital camera. Rainfall simulation experimental data were used to characterise the hydrological behaviour of areas with a specific pattern of soil surface components by means of the parameters of the Horton equation. Plot runoff data were extrapolated at the hillslope scale based on the soil surface component maps and their hydrological characterisation. The results show that in both slopes runoff generation is concentrated up- and downslope, with a water accepting area in the centre of both slopes disrupting the hydrological connectivity at the slope scale. This reinfiltration patch at the centre of the slope is related to the type of soil surface component and its spatial pattern. Herbaceous vegetation and ‘on top rock fragments’ increase the infiltration capacity of soils at the centre of the slope. In contrast, embedded rock fragments, rock outcrops, as well as crusted surfaces located in the upper and lower slopes favour runoff generation in these areas. In addition, a general pattern of water contribution areas downslope is apparent on both slopes. The south-facing slope shows a higher hydrological connectivity and more runoff. 55% of the surface of the south-facing slope produces runoff at the end of a 1 hour rainfall event and 17.3% of the surface is covered by a runoff depth between 0.5 and 1 mm. While on the north-facing slope only 38% of the surface produces runoff under the same conditions. Longitudinal connectivity of runoff is higher at the south-facing slope where more runoff-generating surfaces appear and where the vegetation pattern favours the connectivity of bare areas.     

基于LBP算法的全天空红外云图的分类研究

利用局部二值模式（Local Binary Patterns,LBP）,结合局部云图的方差信息（VAR）,对全天空红外测云系统获得的红外云图进行了分类研究。首先建立了器测云状分类与传统分类的对应关系,其次分析了层状云、积状云、波状云、卷云和晴空5种类型天空的LBP谱和VAR特征,最后对274个样本进行了分类识别,并与人工观测结果比较,结果表明,层状云、积状云、波状云、卷云和晴空的识别正确率分别为100．0％、84．2％、70．3％、64．7％、99．0％,平均正确率达到87．2％。     

中国春末夏初降水量异常的气候类型

选取中国大陆均匀分布的８０个测站１９５１—１９９４年历年５—６月月总降水量标准化距平资料，利用ＥＯＦ和ＲＥＯＦ方法对春末夏初降水量异常的空间结构及时间演变规律作了研究。结果表明，中国春末夏初降水异常在空间上主要表现为南北相反变化的差异（ＬＶ）。旋转载荷向量场（ＲＬＶ）反映出１１个主要降水异常类型区。旋转主分量（ＲＰＣ）揭示了４４年来春末夏初降水的时间演变特征：江淮和江南地区降水量减少，东北和南疆地区降水量增多；河套东部、华南、北疆、华北地区呈多雨—少雨—多雨的抛物线型，而河套西部、西南地区呈少雨—多雨—少雨的反抛物线型。     

大尺度海气异常关系的主振荡型分析

简要介绍了主振荡型(POP)分析的原理及方法.用它分析了热带太平洋海表温度异常,得到的主振荡型 P_1、P_2及其周期 T,描述了 El Nino 与 La Nina 事件交替出现的时空特征.分析了热带太平洋区域月平均海温与风场的伴随相关型(ACP),得到了与 El Nino 事件相关的、物理意义清楚的环流异常图像.而对东亚夏季降水、气温的 ACP 分析给出了 El Nino 事件与我国夏季长期天气异常联系的接近实际的结果.     

基于多尺度分割算法的湿地干扰格局研究

以三江平原具有典型湿地特征的建三江区为例,首先采用不同时间段归一化植被指数（NDVI）差值的变化监测人类活动改变的土地利用变化程度,然后结合遥感图像多尺度分割法,分析湿地系统的8种类型空间干扰格局,计算干扰度（PD）、干扰邻近度（PDD）及二者的相关性。结果表明：研究区土地利用类型变化对多尺度干扰格局的分布有明显影响,耕地、草地和沼泽地总干扰率较高,变化频繁;水域、林地和沼泽在干扰类型C1、C2中分布较广,但干扰值低,面积小;耕地分别占干扰类型C7、C8的74.38%和61.76%,干扰值高且面积大,说明耕地是建三江区湿地系统的主要干扰源。干扰邻近度说明干扰在一定尺度上发生,当干扰度PD＆lt;0.4或PD＆gt;0.7,且干扰邻近度PDD＆gt;PD时,干扰对周边土地类型必定产生影响。本研究为湿地生态系统脆弱性和恢复力的评价提供有效的生态特征指标。     

Application of a modified pattern informatics method to forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes in the central Japan

We propose a modification of the Pattern Informatics (PI) method that has been developed for forecasting the locations of future large earthquakes. This forecast is based on analyzing the space–time patterns of past earthquakes to find possible locations where future large earthquakes are expected to occur. A characteristic of our modification is that the effect of errors in the locations of past earthquakes on the output forecast is reduced. We apply the modified and original methods to seismicity in the central part of Japan and compared the forecast performances. We also invoke the Relative Intensity (RI) of seismic activity and randomized catalogs to constitute null hypotheses. We do statistical tests using the Molchan and Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) diagrams and the log-likelihoods and show that the forecast for using the modified PI method is generally better than the competing original-PI forecast and the forecasts from the null hypotheses. Using the bootstrap technique with Monte-Carlo simulations, we further confirm that earthquake sequences simulated based on the modified-PI forecast can be statistically the same as the real earthquake sequence so that the forecast is acceptable. The main and innovative science in this paper is the modification of the PI method and the demonstration of its applicability, showing a considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting tool.     

Temporal patterns of arid-humid transitions in the south-eastern Arabian Peninsula based on optical dating

The Rub Al Khali aeolian system of the Arabian Peninsula is the world's largest erg. While the region is presently hyper-arid, evidence for multiple past humid periods has been documented in previous studies. Radiocarbon dating of lacustrine, travertine and palaeogroundwater deposits suggests that the climate was humid at 10–6 and 35–25 ka. These phases have been associated with summer rainfall increases occurring in tandem with an intensification and northward migration of the monsoon system during Northern hemisphere precessional maxima. Published optical dating studies have focused on preserved sand dune and aeolianite deposits to establish ages for the intervening arid phases. Here we present a summary of this work and additional optical dating results for samples of aeolian sediment from a deep drill core, which provides insights into the style of barchan dune accretion in the Liwa region of the United Arab Emirates. The large dune accreted rapidly during the mid-late Holocene. The results suggest that the transitions from humid to arid conditions and resulting accumulation of aeolian sediment in the form of large bedforms occurred abruptly at around 6 ka. Further aeolian sedimentation has not been constant since that time, with initial gradual dune growth followed by rapid vertical accretion, and possible termination of accumulation around c. 2 ka.     

Dynamic analysis of stacked rigid blocks

The dynamic behavior of a structural model of two stacked rigid blocks subjected to ground excitation is examined. Assuming no sliding, the rocking response of the system standing free on a rigid foundation is investigated. The derivation of the equations of motion accounts for the consecutive transition from one pattern of motion to another, each being governed by a set of highly nonlinear differential equations. The system behavior is described in terms of four possible patterns of response and impact between either the two blocks or the base block and the ground. The equations governing the rocking response of the system to horizontal and vertical ground accelerations are derived for each pattern, and an impact model is developed by conservation of angular momentum considerations. Numerical results are obtained by developing an ad hoc computational scheme that is capable of determining the response of the system under an arbitrary base excitation. This feature is demonstrated by using accelerograms from the Northridge, CA, 1994, earthquake. It is hoped that the two-blocks model used herein can facilitate the development of more sophisticated multi-block structural models.     

洞庭湖区移民安置模式案例研究——以汉寿县为例

汉寿县是国家、湖南省确定的移民安置重点地区和示范地区，以移民问卷调查作为研究基础，对移民安置模式及移民出向等特征进行分析评价。汉寿县基本移民安置模式为：（1）从退田还湖角度，为利于农业生产，实施单退和双退安置；（2）从移民建镇角度，采取集中安置和分散安置；（3）转垸建镇和筑台建镇等模式。目前移民安置中存在的主要问题是耕地不足，人地矛盾突出，移民就业难，地方工业吸纳移民少等。认为移民安置要与展生态农业、发展农村工业和推动城镇化相互作用，切实做好移民生产、生计安置，综合考虑移民长远发展，并为洞庭湖区移民安置的长远规划提供战略参考。     

Multivariate Analysis of Species Distribution: A Survey on Occurence of Mangrove Molluscs in the Bonny and New Calabar Rivers of the Niger Delta Multivariate Analyse von Verbreitungsmustern: Ein Überblick über das Vorkommen von Mangroven-Mollusken im Bonny River und New Calabar River des Niger-Deltas

Studies on distribution and habitats of mangrove molluscs of the Bonny and New Calabar rivers (Niger Delta) were made at ten shore stations from the river mouth to the tidal fresh water zone. Forty-three species were collected and thirty-nine were identified. Investigations into tidal zonation patterns showed that molluscs inhabited the high, mid and low intertidal stretches of the shore. In the tidal fresh water and low-salinity brackish water zone, the low intertidal is poor in molluscs. Many species have restricted salinity ranges occuring either in the high or low salinity limits. The collected data on occurence of species were analyzed by different methods from multivariate data analysis, namely cluster analysis, principal component analysis and partial least squares. These allowed to visualize structures among mollusc species and stations according to distribution patterns and to estimate the degree of relation between these patterns and salinity.