Evaluation of nonlinear models for precipitation forecasting

Prediction of factors affecting water resources systems is important for their design and operation. In hydrology, wavelet analysis (WA) is known as a new method for time series analysis. In this study, WA was combined with an artificial neural network (ANN) for prediction of precipitation at Varayeneh station, western Iran. The results obtained were compared with the adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and ANN. Moreover, data on relative humidity and temperature were employed in addition to rainfall data to examine their influence on precipitation forecasting. Overall, this study concluded that the hybrid WANN model outperformed the other models in the estimation of maxima and minima, and is the best at forecasting precipitation. Furthermore, training and transfer functions are recommended for similar studies of precipitation forecasting.     

Efficient Bayesian sensor placement algorithm for structural identification: a general approach for multi‐type sensory systems

In this paper, a Bayesian sequential sensor placement algorithm, based on the robust information entropy, is proposed for multi‐type of sensors. The presented methodology has two salient features. It is a holistic approach such that the overall performance of various types of sensors at different locations is assessed. Therefore, it provides a rational and effective strategy to design the sensor configuration, which optimizes the use of various available resources. This sequential algorithm is very efficient due to its Bayesian nature, in which prior distribution can be incorporated. Therefore, it avoids the possible unidentifiability problem encountered in a sequential process, which starts with small number of sensors. The proposed algorithm is demonstrated using a shear building and a lattice tower with consideration of up to four types of sensors. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Copula models for frequency analysis what can be learned from a Bayesian perspective?

Large spring floods in the Québec region exhibit correlated peakflow, duration and volume. Consequently, traditional univariate hydrological frequency analyses must be complemented by multivariate probabilistic assessment to provide a meaningful design flood level as requested in hydrological engineering (based on return period evaluation of a single quantity of interest). In this paper we study 47 years of a peak/volume dataset for the Romaine River with a parametric copula model. The margins are modeled with a normal or gamma distribution and the dependence is depicted through a parametric family of copulas (Arch 12 or Arch 14). Parameter joint inference and model selection are performed under the Bayesian paradigm. This approach enlightens specific features of interest for hydrological engineering: (i) cross correlation between margin parameters are stronger than expected , (ii) marginal distributions cannot be forgotten in the model selection process and (iii) special attention must be addressed to model validation as far as extreme values are of concern.     

基于人工神经元网络的空间知识表达与推理方法研究

分析了智能决策支持系统的结构,通过比较指出了基于符号的知识表达与推理方法的不足,阐述了基于神经网络的知识表达与推理的方法,并认为神经网络方法可作为智能空间决策支持系统中符号方法的替代或补充,并通过实例验证了基于神经网络的不确定空间知识表达与推理的有效性.     

Geotechnical Aspects of Clayey Sediments Off Badagara on the Kerala Coast,India

Offshore geotechnical surveys form part of an integrated investigation to rejuvenate a decrepit minor port at Badagara, Kerala on the southwestern coast of India. The sediments typify a fluvio-marine milieu ranging from silty clay, sand, silty sand, sandy silt and clayey silt. Geotechnical and sedimentological studies of shallow cores reveal the geotechnical aspects besides the depositional history of the sediments. Downcore geotechnical variations and regressive coefficients based on their inter-relationships highlight diverse factorial inferences. X-Ray Diffraction data indicate the prominent clay type.

A comparative evaluation of the geotechnical characteristics of clayey sediments off Badagara, with similar studies along various sectors of the Kerala coast, both on land as well as in the near shore, is broadly attempted. Geotechnical studies carried out earlier on the uplifted Cochin marine clays provide comparative data for evaluating the possible variations between present day marine clayey sediments occurring along the Kerala coast and uplifted marine clays which, besides their gross variations in levels with respect to the present sea-level, also obviously relate to a much older depositional environment and provenance during probable Holocene times.     

Modeling of environmental influence in structural health assessment for reinforced concrete buildings

One branch of structural health monitoring (SHM) utilizes dynamic response measurements to assess the structural integrity of civil infrastructures. In particular,modal frequency is a widely adopted indicator for structural damage since its square is proportional to structural stiffness. However,it has been demonstrated in various SHM projects that this indicator is substantially affected by fluctuating environmental conditions. In order to provide reliable and consistent information on the health status of the monitored structures,it is necessary to develop a method to filter this interference. This study attempts to model and quantify the environmental influence on the modal frequencies of reinforced concrete buildings. Daily structural response measurements of a twenty-two story reinforced concrete building were collected and analyzed over a one-year period. The Bayesian spectral density approach was utilized to identify the modal frequencies of this building and it was clearly seen that the temperature and humidity fluctuation induced notable variations. A mathematical model was developed to quantify the environmental effects and model complexity was taken into consideration. Based on a Timoshenko beam model,the full model class was constructed and other reduced-order model class candidates were obtained. Then,the Bayesian modal class selection approach was employed to select the one with the most suitable complexity. The proposed model successfully characterizes the environmental influence on the modal frequencies. Furthermore,the estimated uncertainty of the model parameters allows for assessment of the reliability of the prediction. This study not only improves the understanding about the monitored structure,but also establishes a systematic approach for reliable health assessment of reinforced concrete buildings.     

COUNCIL MEETING,CHICAGO, ILLINOIS November 3-4, 1972

This paper questions the validity and relevance of the application of procedures of classical statistical inference to population data in geography. Arguments for such procedures include the notions of temporal and spatial samples, measurement error, modifiable areal units, data vetting and stochastic processes. It is concluded that such arguments cannot be justified in terms of statistical theory.     

Data structures for three-dimensional spatial information systems in geology

Abstract

The accumulation of geological information in digital form, due to modern exploration methods, has introduced the possibility of applying geographical information system technology to the field of geology. To achieve the benefits in information management and in data analysis and interpretation, however, it will be necessary to develop spatial models and associated data structures which are specifically designed for working in three dimensions. Some progress in this direction has already been demonstrated, with the application of octree spatial subdivision techniques to the storage of uniform volume elements representing mineral properties. By imposing octree tessellations on more precisely-defined geometric data, such as triangulated surfaces and polygon line segments, it may now be possible to combine efficient spatial addressing with topologically-coded boundary representations of geological strata. The development of storage schemes capable of representing such geological boundary models at different scales poses a particular problem, a possible solution to which may be by means of hierarchical classification of the vertices of triangulated surfaces according to shape contribution.