Quantifying local flow direction uncertainty

Absolute elevation error in digital elevation models (DEMs) can be within acceptable National Map Accuracy standards, but still have dramatic impacts on field-level estimates of surface water flow direction, particularly in level regions. We introduce and evaluate a new method for quantifying uncertainty in flow direction rasters derived from DEMs. The method utilizes flow direction values derived from finer resolution digital elevation data to estimate uncertainty, on a cell-by-cell basis, in flow directions derived from coarser digital elevation data. The result is a quantification and spatial distribution of flow direction uncertainty at both local and regional scales. We present an implementation of the method using a 10-m DEM and a reference 1-m lidar DEM. The method contributes to scientific understanding of DEM uncertainty propagation and modeling and can inform hydrological analyses in engineering, agriculture, and other disciplines that rely on simulations of surface water flow.     

Sediment Transport in a Proglacial Valley,Sermilik, East Greenland

Hasholt, Bent: Sediment Transport in a Proglacial Valley, Sermilik, East Greenland, Geografisk Tidsskrift 92:105–110, Copenhagen 1992.

Detailed investigations of sediment transport have been carried out in a proglacial valley at the Mitdluagkat Glacier in East Greenland. The results from 1989, 1990 and 1991 have been compared with earlier measurements of sediment transport. The hydrologie regime will be described and the effect of the development of an icing on the fluvial transport will be discussed.     

Least squares fitting of the stage–discharge relationship using smooth models with curvilinear asymptotes

Abstract

In this paper we consider the problem of modelling the stage–discharge relationship by curve fitting using the least squares method. Our basic idea is to present new models which are more flexible and have the ability to model phenomena with increasing or unchanging carrying capacity. The new models present a generalization of some sigmoid smooth models commonly used in practice. They are characterized by a curvilinear asymptote and may have several inflection points. The use of these models on six real datasets collected from the US Geological Survey’s website proves their performance and their ability to model hydrological phenomena.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Yue     

Water regime of Vrana Lake in Dalmatia (Croatia): changes,risks and problems

Abstract

Vrana Lake in Dalmatia is a karstic kryptodepression connected to the nearby sea through the karstic subsoil and a canal. Due to interactions with the sea, lake water salinity increases greatly during severe dry periods, seriously endangering the ecosystem. Trend analysis (1961–2010) reveals a decrease in precipitation and surface inflow, but an increase in air temperature, and in sea and lake water levels. Lake inflow and water losses are only partially monitored. Average annual inflow from the monitored part of the catchment is 1722 m³ s^-1, but total inflow is significantly greater; the average difference between total inflow and cumulative water losses is 3072 m³ s^-1. The paper uses modelling to evaluate total inflow into the lake system, taking into consideration projected climate changes/variations till 2100 from the RegCM3 and ALADIN climate models. The analysis indicates marked decrease in discharge values by the end of this century, by as much as 60%.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Potential of the LASH model for water resources management in data-scarce basins: a case study of the Fragata River basin,southern Brazil

ABSTRACT

The objective of this study was to evaluate, based on a data-scarce basin in southern Brazil, the potential of the Lavras Simulation of Hydrology (LASH) model for estimating daily streamflows, annual streamflow indicators and the flow–duration curve. It was also used to simulate the different runoff components and their consistency with the basin physiographical characteristics. The statistical measures indicated that LASH can be considered suitable according to widely used classifications and when compared with other studies involving hydrological models. LASH also showed satisfactory results for annual indicators, especially for maximum and average annual streamflows, as well as for the flow–duration curve. It was found that the model was consistent with the basin characteristics when simulating runoff components. The results obtained in this study allowed us to conclude that the LASH model has the potential to aid practitioners in water resources management of basins with scarce data and similar soil and land-use conditions.

Editor A. Castellarin; Associate editor Y. Gyasi-Agyei     

Updating estimates of low-streamflow statistics to account for possible trends

ABSTRACT

Accurate estimators of streamflow statistics are critical to the design, planning, and management of water resources. Given increasing evidence of trends in low-streamflow, new approaches to estimating low-streamflow statistics are needed. Here we investigate simple approaches to select a recent subset of the low-flow record to update the commonly used statistic of 7Q10, the annual minimum 7-day streamflow exceeded in 9 out of 10 years on average. Informed by low-streamflow records at 174 US Geological Survey streamgages, Monte Carlo simulation experiments evaluate competing approaches. We find that a strategy which estimates 7Q10 using the most recent 30 years of record when a trend is detected, reduces error and bias in 7Q10 estimators compared to use of the full record. This simple rule-based approach has potential as the basis for a framework for updating frequency-based statistics in the context of possible trends.     

Comparison of land surface scheme simulations with field observations versus atmospheric model output as forcing

ABSTRACT

The low density of meteorological stations in parts of Canada necessitates using numerical weather prediction (NWP)/assimilation output for hydrological modelling. In this study, comparisons are made of simulated land surface variables when using field observations versus NWP output as forcing for two well-instrumented sites: the mountainous and forested Marmot Creek Basin (MCRB) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, and a prairie cropland/grassland site (Kenaston). The Canadian Land Surface Scheme 3.6 (CLASS) was used for modelling. The Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model with Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) was also used as forcing. There was good agreement between observed meteorology and GEM/CaPA, though some deficiencies in GEM/CaPA were identified: the effects of sub-grid topography on incoming radiation and wind speed were not accounted for at MCRB, and CaPA did not capture some convective rainfall events at Kenaston. CLASS simulations using both sets of forcing showed difficulties in simulating snow depth, soil moisture and evapotranspiration; certain difficulties were linked to GEM/CaPA deficiencies and/or CLASS. Both sets of forcing tended to overestimate the duration of snow cover at MCRB, but during different years. With GEM/CaPA as forcing, CLASS overestimated the duration of frozen soils. The GEM/CaPA precipitation difficulties at Kenaston degraded soil moisture simulations.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR E. Volpi     

Ecohydrology and water resources management: a pilot study in Trinidad

Abstract

An area of rainforest in Trinidad (10°N, 61°W) is remarkably rich in biodiversity, and receives the highest amount of rainfall in the island due to its orography and the dominant northeast trade winds. However, a year-round transfer of water from its pristine rivers is likely in the future, with ecological consequences. The results of a pilot study are presented, based on a simple, and graphical, segment-scale multi-objective methodology for the estimation of the optimal instream flow of the 13 rivers in this area. This methodology is based on a dimensionless ecohydrological factor, Δ, which enables the required hydraulic mean depth at a river cross-section to be expressed in terms of the average species length at maturity for a target group of amphibians, birds, fish, mammals and reptiles. Moreover, the methodology considers the socio-economic cost of ecological degradation brought about by streamflow abstraction, as well as the economic benefit of the same. An example illustrates the estimation of optimal instream flow for a value of Δ and, thereby, the corresponding optimal river intake operating rule, based on the hydraulic characteristics of a 0.1 km segment of one of the rivers, for the 20-year average dry (January—May) and wet (June–December) seasons. The limitations of the pilot study, and areas for further research, are also highlighted with a hope that it will ultimately evolve into a decision-making tool for water resources management.     

Hydrology and change

Abstract

Since “panta rhei” was pronounced by Heraclitus, hydrology and the objects it studies, such as rivers and lakes, have offered grounds to observe and understand change and flux. Change occurs on all time scales, from minute to geological, but our limited senses and life span, as well as the short time window of instrumental observations, restrict our perception to the most apparent daily to yearly variations. As a result, our typical modelling practices assume that natural changes are just a short-term “noise” superimposed on the daily and annual cycles in a scene that is static and invariant in the long run. According to this perception, only an exceptional and extraordinary forcing can produce a long-term change. The hydrologist H.E. Hurst, studying the long flow records of the Nile and other geophysical time series, was the first to observe a natural behaviour, named after him, related to multi-scale change, as well as its implications in engineering designs. Essentially, this behaviour manifests that long-term changes are much more frequent and intense than commonly perceived and, simultaneously, that the future states are much more uncertain and unpredictable on long time horizons than implied by standard approaches. Surprisingly, however, the implications of multi-scale change have not been assimilated in geophysical sciences. A change of perspective is thus needed, in which change and uncertainty are essential parts.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Koutsoyiannis, D., 2013. Hydrology and change. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1177–1197.     

Identifiability analysis: towards constrained equifinality and reduced uncertainty in a conceptual model

Abstract

Different sets of parameters and conceptualizations of a basin can give equally good results in terms of predefined objective functions. Therefore, a need exists to tackle equifinality and quantify the uncertainty bands of a model. In this paper we use the concepts of equifinality, identifiability and uncertainty to propose a simple method aimed at constraining the equifinal parameters and reducing the uncertainty bands of model outputs, and obtaining physically possible and reasonable models. Additionally, the uncertainty of equifinal solutions is quantified to estimate the amount by which output uncertainty can be reduced by knowing how to discard most of the equifinal solutions of a model. As a study case, a conceptual model of the Chillán basin in Chile is carried out. From the study it is concluded that using identifiability analysis makes it possible to constrain equifinal solutions with reduced uncertainty and realistic models, resulting in a framework that can be recommended to practitioners, especially due to the simplicity of the method.