Modelling the effects of land use and climate changes on hydrology in the Ursern Valley,Switzerland

While many studies have been conducted in mountainous catchments to examine the impact of climate change on hydrology, the interactions between climate changes and land use components have largely unknown impacts on hydrology in alpine regions. They need to be given special attention in order to devise possible strategies concerning general development in these regions. Thus, the main aim was to examine the impact of land use (i.e. bushland expansion) and climate changes (i.e. increase of temperature) on hydrology by model simulations. For this purpose, the physically based WaSiM‐ETH model was applied to the catchment of Ursern Valley in the central Alps (191 km²) over the period of 1983?2005. Modelling results showed that the reduction of the mean monthly discharge during the summer period is due primarily to the retreat of snow discharge in time and secondarily to the reduction in the glacier surface area together with its retreat in time, rather than the increase in the evapotranspiration due to the expansion of the “green alder” on the expense of grassland. The significant decrease in summer discharge during July, August and September shows a change in the regime from b‐glacio‐nival to nivo‐glacial. These changes are confirmed by the modeling results that attest to a temporal shift in snowmelt and glacier discharge towards earlier in the year: March, April and May for snowmelt and May and June for glacier discharge. It is expected that the yearly total discharge due to the land use changes will be reduced by 0.6% in the near future, whereas, it will be reduced by about 5% if climate change is also taken into account. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of climate change on diffuse pollutant fluxes at the watershed scale

This study aims to assess watershed‐scale impacts of changing climate on sediment, phosphorus, nitrogen and pesticide (atrazine) fluxes over the 21st century at the watershed scale. In particular, changes in dissolved and particulate forms of water quality constituents in response to climate change are investigated. The hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated and evaluated in a primarily agricultural watershed in the Midwestern United States to simulate hydrologic and water quality processes on a daily basis over the 2015–2099 time horizon. The model was then driven with 112 distinct statistically downscaled climate projections representing Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) low, moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Projected hydrologic and water quality responses were categorized according to the three IPCC SRES emission scenarios for summarizing and synthesizing results over early‐century (2015–2034), mid‐century (2045–2064) and late‐century (2080–2099) assessment. Results revealed clear warming trends in the study area, whereas small increases in precipitation were predicted. Streamflow, sediment and total nutrient loads did not differ noticeably between assessment periods. However, the proportion of dissolved to total nutrients increased significantly from early‐century to late‐century periods. With the exception of total atrazine in the mid‐century period, predicted pollutant loads for a given assessment period did not differ between emission pathways for a given assessment period. Changes in pollutant fluxes showed pronounced monthly variability. The projected increase in readily available forms of nutrients has important implications for the ecological health of water systems and management of drinking water supplies. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implications of decadal to century scale glacio‐hydrological change for water resources of the Hood River basin,OR, USA

In glacier‐fed rivers, melting of glacier ice sustains streamflow during the driest times of the year, especially during drought years. Anthropogenic and ecologic systems that rely on this glacial buffering of low flows are vulnerable to glacier recession as temperatures rise. We demonstrate the evolution of glacier melt contribution in watershed hydrology over the course of a 184‐year period from 1916 to 2099 through the application of a coupled hydrological and glacier dynamics model to the Hood River basin in Northwest Oregon, USA. We performed continuous simulations of glaciological processes (mass accumulation and ablation, lateral flow of ice and heat conduction through supra‐glacial debris), which are directly linked with seasonal snow dynamics as well as other key hydrologic processes (e.g. evapotranspiration and subsurface flow). Our simulations show that historically, the contribution of glacier melt to basin water supply was up to 79% at upland water management locations. We also show that supraglacial debris cover on the Hood River glaciers modulates the rate of glacier recession and progression of dry season flow at upland stream locations with debris‐covered glaciers. Our model results indicate that dry season (July to September) discharge sourced from glacier melt started to decline early in the 21st century following glacier recession that started early in the 20th century. Changes in climate over the course of the current century will lead to 14–63% (18–78%) reductions in dry season discharge across the basin for IPCC emission pathway RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). The largest losses will be at upland drainage locations of water diversions that were dominated historically by glacier melt and seasonal snowmelt. The contribution of glacier melt varies greatly not only in space but also in time. It displays a strong decadal scale fluctuations that are super‐imposed on the effects of a long‐term climatic warming trend. This decadal variability results in reversals in trends in glacier melt, which underscore the importance of long‐time series of glacio‐hydrologic analyses for evaluating the hydrological response to glacier recession. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of drone‐based surface flow observations

Remote surface flow observations are crucial for improving the comprehension of hydrological phenomena. A recent advancement in remote hydrological measurements involves the use of drones for generating surface flow‐velocity field maps through large‐scale particle image velocimetry (LSPIV). In this work, we perform a comparative analysis of drone‐based LSPIV with fixed implementations. Quantitative indices are introduced to test the efficiency of the techniques with regards to measurement accuracy, sensitivity to the transit of tracers, and platform mobility. Experimental findings support drone‐based observations in outdoor settings. Specifically, measurements from the aerial platform are more sensitive to the transit of tracers and closer to benchmark values than traditional LSPIV implementations. Future work should aim at improving the stability of the aerial platform and mitigating the effects of tracer scarcity. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Streamflow regime of a lake-stream system based on long-term data from a high-density hydrometric network

Northern landscapes are dominated by a mosaic of lakes and streams, yet only a limited number of studies have explored how these lake-stream networks influence streamflow regimes. In order to gain further insight into the hydrologic behaviour of lake-stream systems, we conducted a study using long-term streamflow data to investigate the annual-, seasonal- and event-scale streamflow regimes of a lake-stream network at the Turkey Lakes Watershed (TLW) in central Ontario, Canada. Streamflow metrics were compared for seven lake and 12 no-lake catchments within the TLW, in addition to 14 no-lake catchments from other forested landscapes. It was difficult to attribute patterns in annual streamflow regimes to the influence of lakes due to the confounding influence of catchment size; however, streamflow regimes appeared to be less flashy at locations with more lake influence. In addition, lake catchments showed high similarity in streamflow regimes across seasons, whereas no-lake catchments showed more similarity to lake catchments during wet seasons but less similarity during dry seasons. Event-scale streamflow regimes further downstream from lake outlets were associated with greater increases in peakflow response and hydrograph rise rate following rain events than locations closer to lake outlets. Antecedent conditions were also important for both the peakflow response and rise rate, but less so than the amount of rainfall during the event. Variability in streamflow across lake-stream networks appears to be driven by interactions between delayed contributions from lakes and relatively rapid runoff contributions from hillslopes and tributaries without lakes. In addition, streamflow regimes are influenced by temporal changes in lake storage deficits, which are a function of lake and catchment properties, as well as hydrometeorological conditions. Our results highlight that a network-scale perspective that incorporates lakes and streams is needed to understand how these landscapes will hydrologically respond to environmental change.     

Modified sediments and subsurface hydrology in natural and recreated salt marshes and implications for delivery of ecosystem services

Recreation or restoration of salt marsh through the deliberate removal of flood defences (managed realignment or de‐embankment) is a common practice across Europe and the USA, with potential to enhance delivery of ecosystem services. However, recent research suggests that physical, chemical and ecological processes may be impaired in recreated sites as a result of the modified morphology, sediment structure and hydrology associated with both the restoration process and historic land use. This paper compares physical sediment properties and subsurface water levels recorded in paired natural and de‐embanked (recreated) salt marshes in SE England. Using a combination of statistical and time‐series modelling, significant differences between the natural and recreated marshes are identified. Sediment properties (bulk density, moisture content and organic content) within each marsh were statistically different and imply that de‐embanked sediments are compacted, which may affect subsurface water movement. Analysis of hydrological time series reveals that the de‐embanked salt marsh is characterized by a damped response to tidal flooding with elevated and less variable water levels. This, combined with analysis of hydrographs and hysteresis patterns over individual tidal cycles, suggests that fast, horizontal near‐surface flows enhanced by the relict land surface may play a greater role in drainage of the de‐embanked salt marsh. The importance of hydrological functioning in governing many important physical and biogeochemical processes in salt marshes suggests any modifications would have significant implications for the delivery of ecosystem services. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bedrock infiltration and mountain block recharge accounting using chloride mass balance

Mountain front catchment net groundwater recharge (NR) represents the upper end of mountain block recharge (MBR) groundwater flow paths. Using environmental chloride in precipitation, streamflow and groundwater, we apply chloride mass balance (CMB) to estimate NR at multiple catchment scales within the 27 km² Dry Creek Experimental Watershed (DCEW) on the Boise Front, southwestern Idaho. The estimate for average annual precipitation partitioning to NR is approximately 14% for DCEW. In contrast, as much as 44% of annual precipitation routes to NR in ephemeral headwater catchments. NR in headwater catchments is likely routed to downgradient springs, baseflow, and MBR, while downgradient streamflow losses contribute further to MBR. A key assumption in the CMB approach is that the change in stored chloride during the study period is zero. We found that this assumption is violated in some individual years, but that a 5‐year integration period is sufficient. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Patterns,puzzles and people: implementing hydrologic synthesis

There have been several calls made for hydrologic synthesis research: namely activities which unify diverse data sources across sites, scales and disciplines to uncover new connections and to promote a holistic understanding of water science. This paper draws on the NSF‐funded Hydrological Synthesis Project (HSP) run by the University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign to elucidate mechanisms, benefits and challenges of implementing hydrologic synthesis research from the perspectives of participants in a pilot research study. Two broadly different mechanisms of implementing synthesis were adopted in the HSP: 6‐week Summer Institutes in which Ph.D. students conducted team‐based research under the guidance of faculty mentors, and focused workshops which disseminated knowledge and shared experiences between scientists at many different career levels. The Summer Institutes were a test bed in which new ideas could be explored, assisted students in developing a wide range of skills, and were highly productive, but posed challenges for mentors and students because the ‘new’ research topics initiated during the Institutes' programmes needed to be completed in competition with students' ongoing Ph.D. research or mentor's existing research programs. The workshop‐based model circumvented this conflict and was also highly productive, but did not offer the same opportunity to experiment with new ideas as part of the synthesis research. Leadership, trust, flexibility and long gestation times were all important to bringing synthesis research to a positive resolution. Funding models that embrace the exploratory aspects of synthesis and provide adequate support to mentors and students over these long timescales would facilitate future hydrologic synthesis research. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

POD-based Monte Carlo approach for the solution of regional scale groundwater flow driven by randomly distributed recharge

We present a methodology conducive to the application of a Galerkin model order reduction technique, Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD), to solve a groundwater flow problem driven by spatially distributed stochastic forcing terms. Typical applications of POD to reducing time-dependent deterministic partial differential equations (PDEs) involve solving the governing PDE at some observation times (termed snapshots), which are then used in the order reduction of the problem. Here, the application of POD to solve the stochastic flow problem relies on selecting the snapshots in the probability space of the random quantity of interest. This allows casting a standard Monte Carlo (MC) solution of the groundwater flow field into a Reduced Order Monte Carlo (ROMC) framework. We explore the robustness of the ROMC methodology by way of a set of numerical examples involving two-dimensional steady-state groundwater flow taking place within an aquifer of uniform hydraulic properties and subject to a randomly distributed recharge. We analyze the impact of (i) the number of snapshots selected from the hydraulic heads probability space, (ii) the associated number of principal components, and (iii) the key geostatistical parameters describing the heterogeneity of the distributed recharge on the performance of the method. We find that our ROMC scheme can improve significantly the computational efficiency of a standard MC framework while keeping the same degree of accuracy in providing the leading statistical moments (i.e. mean and covariance) as well as the sample probability density of the state variable of interest.