基于新型城镇化视角的区域PRED系统综合评价——以大连为例

基于中国在推进以“人”为核心的新型城镇化过程中人口、资源、环境与经济、社会发展诸要素相互促进或相互制约的复杂关系视角,借鉴人口承载力思想,提出区域PRED系统承载力概念及其表征方法,参考压力—状态—响应模型（PSR）,构建了区域PRED系统的承载力—压力—状态—响应评价指标体系（CPSR 模型）,在此基础上提出区域PRED系统综合响应度与应急响应级别划分标准,通过多目标规划与决策方法对区域PRED系统进行综合评价。以2000-2012 年大连市PRED系统为例进行实证分析,结果显示：① 研究时段内大连市PRED系统一直处于超载状态,人口承载力由363 万人降至291 万人;② 大连市PRED系统压力低于全国平均水平,区域PRED系统负荷指数由0.97 降至0.85,区域PRED系统综合响应级别始终处于Ⅱ级橙色预警或Ⅲ级黄色预警状态。评价结果基本符合近年来大连市有关资源、环境及经济、社会发展的客观实际,评价结果可视性较强、可靠性较高。区域PRED系统承载力概念以及基于CPSR模型的区域PRED系统综合评价指标体系、多目标决策评价方法,为定量评价区域可持续发展提供了一种新的思路和方法,对新型城镇化背景下的相关政策制定具有一定参考价值。     

Coordinative Development Between Land Use Change and Regional Population-Resources-Environment- Development System-A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

Land use change has significant influence on the operation of the PopulationResources-Environment-De-velopment (PRED) System. Moderate land use is the key factor to ensure the coordinative and sustainable development between land use and PRED system. Based on the internal relationship between land use and PRED system, a PRED evaluation index system and a Press-Status-Response (PSR) model were established in this study. According to the expounding on the mechanism of the PSR model, we investigated the coordinative development between the changes of regional land use and PRED system taking Jiangsu Province as an example. The results showed that the orders of the Synthetic Index of Land Use (SILU) and the Variation of PRED Index (VPI) in Jiangsu are both the southern Jiangsu>the central Jiangsu>the northern Jiangsu. A cubic curve model was used to fit the relationship between the VPI and SILU. The inflection point of VPI was situated in 5.0 of SILU. When SILU was below 5.0, VPI increased with SILU, which will be helpful to the coordinative development between land use and PRED system. Based on those results, it is suggested that the land use degree of the southern Jiangsu, especially that of Nanjing City, should be moderately controlled at present, while land resources of the central Jiangsu and the northern Jiangsu should be further exploited.     

A new method for comprehensive division of mountainous area: taking Huaihua City as an example

1 IntroductionAs human society has entered the 21st century, knowledge-based economy and "Digital Earth" project are paid much attention to. Studies on regional sustainable development come into the manipulating stage. Thus, traditional division needs to be reconsidered[1]. In new era, division work should be both in conformity with rationality of eco-environment, and be beneficial to socio-economic development, i.e., eco-economic comprehensive division should be taken into account[2,3]. As …     

水资源调配中PRED综合论证的初步研究

水资源调配是解决水资源利用问题的一项开源措施,必须考虑人口、资源、环境、发展的综合协调（简称ＰＲＥＤ）,分析水资源中的调配问题与ＰＲＥＤ之间的关系,指出ＰＲＥＤ综合分析是水资源调配与利用的一个重要基础。提出ＰＲＥＤ论证的基本思想、指标体系、论证模式、论证流程,并对南水北调河南省境内地级市进行水资源利用的ＰＲＥＤ综合论证,给出诊断结果与利用方略。