川东北地区埋藏–剥露历史分析——来自盆地模拟和热年代的制约

构造热演化是沉积盆地基础地质研究的重要内容,更是油气勘探中不可或缺的部分,多种古地温方法的综合对比研究是目前热史研究主要发展趋势。本文将裂变径迹(FT)和(U-Th)/He热年代学、镜质体反射率法(Ro)和盆地模拟等技术相结合,运用正演和反演的方法重建了川东北地区埋藏–剥露热演化历史。研究表明川东北地区自晚白垩世埋深达到最大后进入剥蚀阶段,大约从92 Ma开始隆升,经历了快速隆升–缓慢隆升–加速隆升三个阶段,整个过程的剥蚀量大约3~4 km,且两次大的剥露过程分别受控于雪峰山的隆起造山以及大巴山的推覆和青藏高原的隆升作用。研究还建立了综合热年代学、Ro和盆地模拟技术恢复复杂构造–热演化历史的方法,这对于复杂环境下的构造热演化历史的恢复以及海相油气勘探具有重要的意义。     

全球价值链下区域分工地位与产业升级对策研究——以东北三省为例

利用投入产出分析法,在测算出国家层面的各产业GVC分工地位指数的基础上,引入东北三省内的地区和产业差异因素,估算出东北三省工业产业的全球价值链分工地位。研究发现,整体上东北三省采矿业等基础工业贸易增值量较大,但存在严重的产能过剩和低端锁定威胁;而其制造工业在全球价值链中的分工地位较低,对外贸易中表现出较为明显的比较劣势,并且这一劣势还存在恶化倾向。就各省来看,基础工业方面,辽宁省在采矿业上的比较劣势相对较小,黑龙江省在采矿业上存在更为严重的产能过剩和低端锁定风险,而在制造业上吉林省的比较劣势较大。因此,东北三省要实现全球价值链分工地位提升和产业结构升级,就需要转变传统的产业发展和外贸理念,加强创新能力建设,将高新信息技术与传统工业生产相结合,发展新型工业化模式,在借鉴国外有益经验的基础上,走创新驱动的集约化发展道路。     

东北地区城镇化与生态环境的脱钩分析

以2003~2012年东北地区34个地级市数据为基础^①(① 本文提及的地级市包括哈尔滨、长春、沈阳和大连4个副省级城市。),通过构建城镇化指数、生态环境压力指数,分析东北地区的城镇化发展及生态环境压力发展的时空演变特征,测度东北地区城镇化与生态环境的脱钩指数,判断其城镇化与生态环境的脱钩关系并探讨其发生变化的影响因素。结果表明：① 生态环境压力是城镇化累积作用的结果,呈现出一定的时空滞后效应;② 近10 a来,东北地区的城市发展经历了城镇化与生态环境由脱钩状态为主体向脱钩状态与负脱钩状态并举的演变过程,城市个体城镇化对生态环境效应的稳定性差;③ 投资驱动、资源型经济、生态环境倒逼和创新转型驱动等是东北地区城镇化对生态环境产生脱钩差异的根本原因。资源型经济和投资驱动是城镇化对生态环境产生压力的主要动因;生态环境倒逼和创新转型发展是摆脱城镇化对生态环境压力的关键动力。     

Does hostility affect public support for the provision of global public goods among competing neighboring countries? A survey experiment in Northeast Asia

Cooperation beyond the borders of sovereign states and investment in global public goods (GPGs) are essential for tackling transboundary challenges, such as climate change, marine pollution, and health security. However, little is known about how regional tension or isolationism might affect cooperation with neighboring countries on transboundary issues. Thus, in this study, using a conjoint experiment of representative samples from members of the public in Japan, China, and South Korea, we investigated: 1) public support for GPGs using the case of trilateral cooperation for the establishment of common global funds among Japan, China, and South Korea; and 2) the extent to which hostility toward neighboring countries affects such public support. The results showed that Chinese people had lower hostility toward neighboring countries and higher public support. Both Japanese and South Koreans had higher hostility. Meanwhile, public support was lower in Japan but moderate in South Korea. These results suggest that hostility toward neighboring countries affects public support for GPGs. The stronger the hostility toward neighboring countries is, the lower the public support for international cooperation becomes. However, the mechanisms of these effects are complex. Generally, hostility toward a government has more negative effects than hostility toward people of the same country. Furthermore, the present study provides important insights based on the findings that Chinese strongly supported building GPGs with neighboring countries, and people in all three countries somewhat supported equal sharing of the financial burden. However, authorization mechanisms for GPGs are essential, because citizens most supported GPGs managed by their home country. Thus, adopting authorization mechanisms to mutually manage funds is essential for widening public support for GPGs.     

东北夏季气温的大尺度环流影响因子分析

利用1961—2010年东北地区3省53站月平均气温资料及分辨率为2.5°×2.5°的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用统计分析方法,分析了东北夏季气温的大尺度环流影响因子。利用200hPa风场要素定义了一个适于描述东北夏季气温的200hPa纬向风切变指数,并给出了该指数的预测方法,以期为东北夏季气温的预测提供一个诊断工具。结果表明:鄂霍次克海和北太平洋中部海平面气压场偶极子,与东北夏季气温关系密切;同期东北地区上空500hPa位势高度场与东北夏季气温呈正相关关系;同期850hPa、200hPa矢量风场和整层水汽通量场在东北及其以西地区上空呈气旋式环流,对应东北夏季气温偏低,反之则偏高,同时来自孟加拉湾的水汽也是造成东北夏季气温异常的因素之一;200hPa纬向风切变指数与东北全区气温呈显著正相关,该指数偏大对应东北夏季气温偏高,反之东北夏季气温偏低。4月和5月热带印度洋和太平洋海温与夏季200hPa纬向风切变指数关系密切。     

东北夏季降水分型及其大气环流特征

利用1961—2010年中国东北122站逐日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及中国国家气候中心整理的160站月平均温度资料,对东北6月、7月、8月的降水进行分型,在此基础上分析各类降水型对应的环流形势。结果表明:东北6月、7月、8月降水均可划分为两大类四小类,6月与8月的分型结果相同,为全区一致型(同多型、同少型)和南北反位相型(南部型、北部型),7月可分为全区一致型(同多型、同少型)和东西反位相型(东部型、西部型)。6月东北降水主要受东北冷涡影响,冷涡越强,降水越多,且当鄂霍次克海阻塞高压出现明显异常时,6月东北降水将呈现南北反位相特征;7月、8月降水主要受东亚夏季风影响,其中东北降水全区一致型与西太平洋副热带高压的位置以及沿亚洲西风急流东传的波列有关,而降水南北(东西)反位相型则与西太平洋副热带高压的强度有关。     

Geochronology and geochemistry of the major host rock of the Dong’an gold deposit,Lesser Khingan Range: Implications for petrogenesis and metallogenic setting during the Early–Middle Jurassic in northeast China

The Dong’an gold deposit is a large-sized epithermal gold deposit recently discovered in the Lesser Khingan Range, NE China. Here, we present a detailed study of the petrogenesis, magma source, and tectonic setting of a medium–coarse grained alkali-feldspar granite, the major host rock of the Dong’an gold deposit. The LA–ICP–MS zircon U–Pb dating of the medium–coarse grained alkali-feldspar granite yields an early Jurassic age of 176.3 ± 1.1 Ma (MSWD = 0.62). The whole-rock geochemical data indicate that the samples are felsic, ferroan, alkali-calcic and peraluminous with relatively high alkali (K₂O + Na₂O) content. They are enriched in LREEs and LILEs (e.g., Rb, Ba, K), but are depleted in HFSEs (e.g., Nb, Ta, P, Ti), especially in P and Ti, showing characteristics of volcanic arc magmas and similarities with the Early–Middle Jurassic granitic rocks in Xing’an Mongolian orogenic belt. Meanwhile, the negative Eu, Nb, Ta, Ti, and P anomalies are consistent with fractional crystallization of plagioclase, Ti-bearing phases (rutile, ilmenite, titanite, etc.) and apatite during magma evolution. The samples have low Nb/Ta ratios (8.65–14.91) and low Mg^# values (18–36), which are indicative of crustal derived magmas and no interaction between source magmas and the mantle. In-situ Hf isotopic analyses of the zircons from the medium–coarse grained alkali-feldspar granite yield εHf(t) values of +3.38–+5.68 and two-stage model ages (T_DM2) of 772–900 Ma, indicating the magmas formed this intrusion were generated by partial melting of Neoproterozoic basaltic materials in the young lower crust, and the magma source could be derived from a depleted mantle. The medium–coarse grained alkali-feldspar granite most likely formed in the late stage of Toarcian subduction of the Pacific plate, which can be identified on the tectonic setting discrimination diagrams, and the formation of this intrusion was associated with underplating of mantle-derived magmas, which provided heat for crustal partial melting. Similar to the medium–coarse grained alkali-feldspar granite, large amounts of granitic rocks and a series of nonferrous metal hydrothermal deposits (Mo, Cu, Au) formed in northeast China as results of magmatic activities triggered by subduction of the Pacific plate during the Early–Middle Jurassic.     

2010年7~8月东北地区暴雨过程的水汽输送特征分析

本文根据影响天气系统和雨带位置的不同将2010年7~8月东北地区出现的22个暴雨日划分成了三类暴雨,在以欧拉方法分析了各类暴雨的水汽输送和收支的基础上,利用基于拉格朗日方法的轨迹模式(HYSPLIT v4.9),模拟计算了各类暴雨的水汽输送轨迹、主要通道以及不同源地的水汽贡献。结果表明,影响暴雨的水汽输送通道有三支,一支是沿西太平洋副高边缘东南气流的水汽输送,另一支是起源于南海北部向北偏东气流的水汽输送,第三支是西风带西北气流的水汽输送。第一类暴雨中,来自于西太平洋通道和南海通道的水汽输送大体相当,均很重要,两者可以占总水汽输送的87.4%。第二类暴雨中,水汽输送路径偏东,西太平洋通道的水汽输送贡献可达近70%。第三类暴雨中,虽然西太平洋通道水汽输送仍占主导地位,但北方通道的水汽输送也变得不可忽视。西太平洋通道的水汽沿途损失较小,并主要被输送到东北地区850 hPa及以下的大气之中,而南海通道的水汽沿途损失较多,与北方通道的水汽一样,主要被输送到东北地区850 hPa以上的大气之中。     

1990年代初夏季东北亚低压的年代际转变

夏季东亚地区对流层低层受到一个陆地低压系统控制;该低压中心位于东亚的北部地区,文中称之为东北亚低压。基于NCEP/DOE、NCEP/NCAR、ERA-40和ERA-Interim四种不同的再分析数据,本文分析了夏季东北亚低压的年代际变化特征,并进一步探讨了其转变的可能物理机理。研究结果表明夏季东北亚低压在1990年代初期存在一次显著的年代际转变, 之后低压强度减弱。对应此次年代际转变,东北亚地区对流层位势高度呈现为正压结构的正异常,其南侧的高空西风急流中心强度减弱。进一步,基于观测和简单线性斜压模式模拟结果,我们提出环贝加尔湖地区夏季气温增加可能是导致1990年代初期之后夏季东北亚低压减弱的原因。