新疆地震预报研究

新疆的地震预报是1970年开始的。二十多年来在“边观测、边研究、边预报”、“多路探索、多兵种联合作战”、“走综合预报之路”的方针指导下取得了长足的进展。建设了43个地震台站,投入189套仪器,建成了遍布全疆的地震无线通讯网,开展了历史地震调查和地震烈度区划工作,建立健全了地震会商预报制度,进行了多方面的地震预报研究。实际地震预报统计分析表明,扣除自然发震概率之后,趋势预报的成功率约0.3,短临预报的成功率约0.1。在前兆台网控制范围内取得了一些震例,说明地震确实是有前兆的,但又是非常复杂的。地震预报作为科学难题还有漫长的路要走。作者简要地讨论了地震观测的间接性和地震异常的离散性、难以区别的地震异常和地壳变动异常、建立在复杂现象基础上的地震前兆以及地震的混沌性对地震预报的影响等科学问题。     

新疆第四纪盐类矿产的形成和控制因素——兼论“高山深盆”成盐模式

根据袁见齐教授“高山深盆”成盐模式,探讨新疆天山对第四纪盐类矿床的形成和控制作用,阐述了天山地貌、气候、水文特征与盐类矿产的分布规律和特征。认为“高山深盆”并非一定是四周环山的深盆,可以是某一高山与其间深盆或两侧盆地的有机组合。高山的屏障作用造成了垂直的气候分带,在潮湿多雨的山区利于成盐组份的析出并迁移到干旱少雨的闭流深盆中,形成盐类矿床。     

北大别饶拔寨石榴辉石岩P-T-t轨迹及其构造意义

P-T-t轨迹作为变质岩的重要研究方法之一，对揭示岩石的构造演化过程具有重要意义。北大别饶拔寨镁铁-超镁铁岩形成的构造环境和就位过程长期以来尚存争议。本文通过岩相学观察、矿物化学研究和温压计计算，揭示出饶拔寨石榴辉石岩经历了四个变质演化阶段：1）超高压变质阶段（M1）：主要根据石榴子石中金红石的出溶，单斜辉石中石英的出溶和磷灰石中不透明矿物的出溶，结合前人研究，认为饶拔寨石榴辉石岩经历过超高压变质阶段（≥2.5GPa）；2）高压麻粒岩相阶段（M2）：矿物组合为石榴子石（变斑晶）和单斜辉石（基质）+斜长石（基质），记录的温压条件为T=648~700℃，P=1.47~1.94GPa；3）中压麻粒岩相阶段（M3）：以石榴子石外围发育的主要由斜方辉石+斜长石组成的内圈"白眼圈"为特征，形成的温压条件为T=781~796℃，P=0.92~0.98GPa；4）角闪岩相阶段（M4）：以石榴子石变斑晶周围发育的外圈"白眼圈"为特征，其矿物组合为角闪石+斜长石的后成合晶，形成的温压条件为T=663~685℃，P=0.50~0.58GPa。石榴辉石岩的锆石SIMS U-Pb定年得到了3组不同的交点年龄，分别为208.1~202.1Ma、227.6Ma和817.7Ma。根据锆石包裹体中角闪石+斜长石的组合，推断208.1~202.1Ma代表了角闪岩相变质年龄的下限，227.6Ma则是高压麻粒岩相的下限年龄，而新元古代年龄（817.7Ma）与区域上的变质岩原岩年龄一致，可能代表了其原岩年龄。结合前人研究，饶拔寨石榴辉石岩记录了顺时针的P-T-t轨迹，揭示了板片俯冲（超高压变质）-碰撞-折返（降压升温过程，~227Ma）-抬升（降压降温过程，208~202Ma）的完整过程。     

地震短临综合预报方法的研究

本文在《中国震例》资料基础上,详细分析了华北地区１７次中强以上地震前的短临异常,得到华北地区中强以上地震短临异常的三个综合特征,在归纳出短临异常综合特征的基础上,提出了两个判定孕震过程、前兆异常由中期向短期过渡的定量的综合标志。据中期异常的追踪分析和短临异常综合分析相结合的原则,定义并计算了综合预报指标Ｓ值,以此值作为是否发生中强以上地震的判据。本文的重点是在分析短临异常综合特征的基础上,结合实用     

基于区域竞争力对比的新疆旅游资源开发分析

由于资源赋存、区位优势、基础设施、经济发展等方而存在的地域差异,使不同区域在旅游业发展中有不同的业绩和发展潜力。以20纪90年代以来新疆旅游接待量和旅游收入不断增长但旅游目的地地位明显下降为线索,对比研究了新疆的资源禀赋、开发程度、客源市场竞争态等,并调查分析了东南沿海及港澳台地区游客旅游意愿和赴疆游的客源市场潜力。提出区位条件是新疆在现阶段不可抗拒和短期内难以改变的客观因素,必须在现实基础条件下转变思维方式,宏观上以国内远程市场为目标,建立民俗-湖泊-冰川-草原-古迹-沙漠的旅游开发序位；中观上整合近域特殊地理单元内的同构旅游产品以打造品牌；微观上倡导“旅游体验”为核心的管理模式和开发理念。     

Are the South and North Liaohe Groups of North China Craton different exotic terranes? Nd isotope constraints

The Liaohe Group is an important Paleoproterozoic stratigraphic unit in the northeastern part of the North China Craton and is traditionally subdivided into the North and South Liaohe Groups. Associated with both the North and South Liaohe Groups are voluminous Paleoproterozoic granitoid rocks, named the Liaoji granitoids. Different tectonic models, including terrane amalgamation, continent–arc collision and rift closure, have been proposed to interpret the tectonic setting and evolution of the North and South Liaohe Groups and associated Liaoji granitoids. At the centre of the controversy between these models is whether or not the North and South Liaohe Groups developed on the same Archean basement. Nd isotopic geochemistry of the Liaoji granitoids provides important constraints on this controversial issue. The Liaoji granitoids associated with the North and South Liaohe Groups display similar ε_Nd values, restricted to a narrow range from 0 to 2, implying that these granitoid rocks were derived from the same or a similar magma source. Moreover, the Liaoji granitoids associated with the North and South Liaohe Groups have similar Nd model ages (T_DM), ranging from 2.4 to 2.6 Ga, suggesting that the protoliths of the Liaoji granitoids associated with both groups may have formed simultaneously, and that the basement rocks underneath the Liaoji granitoids and associated North and South Liaohe Groups belong to the same continental block rather than two different blocks. Combining lithological, structural and geochronological considerations, we interpret the North and South Liaohe Groups as having developed on a single late Archean basement that underwent Paleoproterozoic rifting associated with the intrusion of the Liaoji granitoids and the formation of the Liaohe Group, and closed upon itself in the Paleoproterozoic.     

Synchronism of Holocene East Asian monsoon variations and North Atlantic drift-ice tracers

Eighteen radiocarbon-dated eolian and paleosol profiles within a 1500-km-long belt along the arid to semi-arid transition zone of north-central China record variations in the extent and strength of the East Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene. Dated paleosols and peat layers represent intervals when the zone was dominated by a mild, moist summer monsoon climate that favored pedogenesis and peat accumulation. Brief intervals of enhanced eolian activity that resulted in the deposition of loess and eolian sand were times when strengthened winter monsoon conditions produced a colder, drier climate. The monsoon variations correlate closely with variations in North Atlantic drift-ice tracers that represent episodic advection of drift ice and cold polar surface water southward and eastward into warmer subpolar water. The correspondence of these records over the full span of Holocene time implies a close relationship between North Atlantic climate and the monsoon climate of central China.     

Spatial and temporal variability of Holocene temperature in the North Atlantic region

The early Holocene climate of the North Atlantic region was influenced by two boundary conditions that were fundamentally different from the present: the presence of the decaying Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) and higher than present summer solar insolation. In order to assess spatial and temporal patterns of Holocene climate evolution across this region, we collated quantitative paleotemperature records at sub-millennial resolution and synthesized their temporal variability using principal components analysis (PCA). The analysis reveals considerable spatial variability, most notably in the time-transgressive expression of the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM). Most of the region, but especially areas peripheral to the Labrador Sea and hence closest to the locus of LIS disintegration, experienced maximum Holocene temperatures that lagged peak summer insolation by 1000-3000 years. Many sites from the northeastern North Atlantic sector, including the Nordic Seas and Scandinavia, either warmed in phase with maximum summer insolation (11,000-9000 years ago) or were less strongly lagged than the Baffin Bay-Labrador Sea region. These spatially complex patterns of Holocene climate development, which are defined by the PCA, resulted from the interplay between final decay of the LIS and solar insolation forcing.     

Late Holocene sea-level changes and isostasy in western Denmark

Cores and exposed cliff sections in salt marshes around Ho Bugt, a tidal embayment in the northernmost part of the Danish Wadden Sea, were subjected to ¹⁴C dating and litho- and biostratigraphical analyses to reconstruct paleoenvironmental changes and to establish a late Holocene relative sea-level history. Four stages in the late Holocene development of Ho Bugt can be identified: (1) groundwater-table rise and growth of basal peat (from at least 2300 BC to AD 0); (2) salt-marsh formation (0 to AD 250); (3) a freshening phase (AD 250 to AD 1600?), culminating in the drying out of the marshes and producing a distinct black horizon followed by an aeolian phase with sand deposition; and (4) renewed salt-marsh deposition (AD 1600? to present). From 16 calibrated AMS radiocarbon ages on fossil plant fragments and 4 calibrated conventional radiocarbon ages on peat, we reconstructed a local relative sea-level history that shows a steady sea-level rise of 4 m since 4000 cal yr BP. Contrary to suggestions made in the literature, the relative sea-level record of Ho Bugt does not contain a late Holocene highstand. Relative sea-level changes at Ho Bugt are controlled by glacio-isostatic subsidence and can be duplicated by a glacial isostatic adjustment model in which no water is added to the world's oceans after ca. 5000 cal yr BP.     

新疆和田河水资源利用与绿色走廊生态建设研究

水是和田河绿色走廊形成与演变最重要的因素。虽然和田河径流量年际变化比较平稳．但年内径流量洪枯季节差异十分悬殊，人工调配水资源的难度较大。随着人类开发利用水资源规模扩大．水资源时空分布格局发生变化，中上游人工绿洲面积扩大，下游绿色走廊植被衰竭，土地荒漠化日趋严重，走廊生态环境持续恶化。文章分析了和田河水资源变化对下游绿色走廊兴衰的影响过程，提出了合理利用水资源、保护绿色走廊生态环境的对策建议。