Planning and development regulation amid rapid urban growth: Explaining divergent trajectories in Africa

Why are urban plans, land use regulations and construction codes implemented effectively in some African states but not others? This constitutes an increasingly urgent development concern with major implications for the environment and the urban poor. Rather than being explained by economic factors, bureaucratic capacity or the nature of the urban policies and regulations in place, this paper argues that divergent outcomes are largely rooted in differing political bargaining environments. Comparing Uganda and Rwanda, it presents an empirical study that analyses contrasting planning and regulation trajectories in contexts of similarly low levels of socioeconomic development and soaring rates of urban growth. It argues that the divergent outcomes can be explained in relation to the political resources and incentives confronted by governing elites, which in Rwanda impel state actors to implement plans and regulations while in Uganda incentivize overriding them in the interests of political or economic gain. In highlighting political bargaining contexts and how these change over time, the paper illustrates the critical importance of historically informed city-level political economy analysis for understanding divergent urban development outcomes.     

Deciphering late Quaternary land snail shell δO and δC from Franchthi Cave (Argolid,Greece)

This paper investigates the stable isotopic composition from late Pleistocene–Holocene (~ 13 to ~ 10.5 cal ka BP) shells of the land snail Helix figulina, from Franchthi Cave (Greece). It explores the palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental implications of the isotope palaeoecology of archaeological shells at the time of human occupation of the cave. Modern shells from around the cave were also analysed and their isotopic signatures compared with those of the archaeological shells. The carbon isotope composition of modern shells depicts the consumption of C₃ vegetation. Shell oxygen isotopic values are consistent with other Mediterranean snail shells from coastal areas. Combining empirical linear regression and an evaporative model, the δ¹⁸Os suggest that modern snails in the study area are active during periods of higher relative humidity and lower rainfall δ¹⁸O, probably at night. Late glacial and early Holocene δ¹⁸Os show lower values compared to modern ones. Early Holocene δ¹⁸Os values likely track enhanced moisture and isotopic changes in the precipitation source. By contrast, lower late glacial δ¹⁸O could reflect lower temperatures and δ¹⁸Op, compared to the present day. Shell carbon isotope values indicate the presence of C₃ vegetation as main source of carbon to late glacial and early Holocene snails.     

Strain rate of the South American lithospheric plate by SIRGAS-CON geodetic observations

A multiyear solution of the SIRGAS-CON network was used to estimate the strain rates of the earth surface from the changing directions of the velocity vectors of 140 geodetic points located in the South American plate. The strain rate was determined by the finite element method using Delaunay triangulation points that formed sub-networks; each sub-network was considered a solid and homogeneous body. The results showed that strain rates vary along the South American plate and are more significant on the western portion of the plate, as expected, since this region is close to the subduction zone of the Nazca plate beneath the South American plate. After using Euler vectors to infer Nazca plate movement and to orient the velocity vectors of the South American plate, it was possible to estimate the convergence and accommodation rates of the Nazca and South American plates, respectively. Strain rate estimates permitted determination of predominant contraction and/or extension regions and to establish that contraction regions coincide with locations with most of the high magnitude seismic events. Some areas with extension and contraction strains were found to the east within the stable South American plate, which may result from different stresses associated with different geological characteristics. These results suggest that major movements detected on the surface near the Nazca plate occur in regions with more heterogeneous geological structures and multiple rupture events. Most seismic events in the South American plate are concentrated in areas with predominant contraction strain rates oriented northeast-southwest; significant amounts of elastic strain can be accumulated on geological structures away from the plate boundary faults; and, behavior of contractions and extensions is similar to what has been found in seismological studies.     

L’analyse des surfaces enveloppes appliquée à l’étude morpho-structurale de l’est de la France

Résumén

Dans certaines régions où les sédiments récents (plio-quaternaires) sont rares ou inutilisables comme enregistreurs de déformations, seule l’analyse morpho-strcturale peut mettre en évidence des indices de néotectonique. Deux types d’objets morphologiques se révèlent particulièrement utiles : les surfaces (d’érosion et de comblement) et le réseau hydrographique. Leur prise en compte et leur analyse s’effectuent essentiellement à partir des cartes topographiques à différentes échelles (de 1/50 000 à 1/500 000).

* La démarche est la suivante: 1 – Des traitements appropriés sont développés, mettant en évidence des discontinuités et des anomalies au sein des surfaces enveloppes et du réseau hydrographiques;

2 – Ces discontinuités sont analysées puis interprétées afin de déterminer les causes de leur existence dans le cadre d’un modèle d’évolution du relief qui tient compte de facteurs internes (la lithologie, la structure), et de facteurs externes (le climat, la végétation et les actions humaines);

3 – Des travaux de terrain confirment et précisent les caractéristiques de ces facteurs (nature et quantification de la déformation : âge. amplitude, sens des mouvements).

* Les principaux résultats de cette démarche appliquée à l’Kst du Bassin parisien sont les suivants: 1 – Les cuestas orientales du Bassin parisien apparaissent structurées par des accidents NK-SW (prolongement du fossé de Sarre Nahe) et NNW-SSK ( Argonne-Bar-le-Due);

2 – Les discontinuités morpho-structurales sont localisées et caractérisées par des mouvements récents.

     

Population growth and loss of arable land

I discuss the loss of cropland in developing countries in connection with the ongoing land conversion caused by the growing population and socio-economic development, resulting in an increased demand for housing, industry, infrastructure, etc.Based on assumptions about the required space per capita for other purposes than agriculture, the portion of this area that is removed from presently used cropland, and the quality of the available land reserves, the required demand for land reserves has been calculated.The main conclusions are that during the next three decades (i) the loss of cropland is likely to be within the range 30–60 Mha, (ii) the reserve land utilized will be about 100–200 Mha, and (iii) the reserve land still in use after 30 years, about 50–100 Mha.     

华南海陆风的数值模拟

本文利用Mass和Dempsey的一层σ坐标中尺度模式对华南的海陆风进行数值模拟。模拟结果表明,华南存在着六个中尺度的海陆风系。同时,存在三个与广东省暴雨中心相对应的海风辐合区。最后,利用模式输出的地面气压场计算的日波的振幅和位相,讨论了海陆风转换的时间以及它的动力学机制。     

城市土地利用对植被特征影响的研究

城市土地利用对植被的影响是城市生态学中研究的重要问题。简单综述了国内外在该领域中的研究现状。通过在北京市进行的研究，对城市植被的特点及其与土地利用的关系进行了分析，结论为：①藜科（Chenpodiac eae）和蓼科（Polygonac eae）植物种类数量相对增加，归化植物占的比例大是城市植物区系的特征；②与非城市区域相比，生活型谱中一二年生植物比例增高，属的区系地理成分构成中世界分布属所占比例也明显提高；③城市土地利用类型对生境和植物群落特征的影响明显；④生境多样化对维持城市植物物种多样性而言，比面积大小具有更为显著的作用。     

长江三角洲典型稻作区近地层二氧化碳等湍流通量的观测研究

利用1999年和2000年长江三角洲近地层大气与农田生态系统综合观测试验资料，对常熟地区水稻插秧、拔节、抽穗等不同生长期近地层二氧化碳和感热、潜热、动量等湍流通量特征及变化规律进行了初步研究. 研究结果表明, 平均而言在水稻各生长期，近地面为二氧化碳的汇，白天水稻通过光合作用吸收二氧化碳、夜间则放出二氧化碳，抽穗期消耗的二氧化碳要多于拔节和插秧期；近地面为大气的热源，主要以潜热方式加热大气，尤其是在抽穗期，感热与潜热之比仅为0.058；二氧化碳等湍流通量的变化与辐射平衡各分量及气象要素有显著关系.     

Multistage Deformation in the Northeastern Segment of the Jiangshao Fault (Suture) Belt: Constraints for the Relationship between the Yangtze Plate and the Cathaysia Old Land

Multistage deformation events have occurred in the northeastern Jiangshao Fault (Suture) Belt. The earliest two are ductile deformation events. The first is the ca. 820 Ma top-to-the-northwest ductile thrusting, which directly resulted from the collision between the Cathaysia Old Land and the Chencai Arc (?) during the Late Neoproterozoic, and the Jiangnan Orogenic Belt that formed as the ocean closed between the Yangtze Plate and the jointed Cathaysia Old Land and the Chencai Arc due to continuous compression. The second is the ductile left-lateral strike-slipping that occurred in the latest Early Paleozoic. Since the Jinning period, all deformation events represent the reactivation or inversion of intraplate structures due to the collisions between the North China and Yangtze plates during the Triassic and between the Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates during the Cenozoic. In the Triassic, brittle right-lateral strike-slipping and subsequent top-to-the south thrusting occurred along the whole northeastern Jiangshao Fault Zone because of the collision between the North China and Yangtze plates. In the Late Mesozoic, regional extension took place across southeastern China. In the Cenozoic, the collision between the Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates resulted in brittle thrusts along the whole Jiangnan Old land in the Miocene. The Jiangshao Fault Belt is a weak zone in the crust with long history, and its reactivation is one of important characteristics of the deformation in South China; however, late-stage deformation events did not occur beyond the Jiangnan Old Land and most of them are parallel to the strike of the Old Land, which is similar to the Cenozoic deformation in Central Asia. In addition, the Jiangnan old Land is not a collisional boundary between the Yangtze Plate and Cathaysia Old Land in the Triassic.     

科尔沁沙地土壤水分动态分析及其概率密度函数模拟

基于Laio土壤水分动态随机模型(Laio模型),利用2006-2010年5~9月土壤水分连续监测数据及日降水资料,分析科尔沁沙地固定沙丘和沙质草地生长季根系层土壤水分动态及其与降水格局的关系,研究点尺度土壤水分概率密度函数,并对Laio模型涉及的13个参数进行了敏感性分析。结果表明:① 研究区年降水的季节分配极不均匀,主要集中在4~10月的生长季,占全年降水量的93%;0~5 mm降水事件占全年降水事件的73%,但其降水量只占全年降水量的25%;降水间隔期以0~10 d为主,占全年无降水期的38%,其频数最高,占全年间隔期频数的87%。② 固定沙丘和沙质草地根系层厚度分别为0~100 cm和0~70 cm,沙质草地根系层土壤水分显著高于固定沙丘;两类沙地7月份的土壤水分都显著高于生长季其他月份。③ 两类沙地生长季根系层土壤水分均服从正态分布;通过Laio模型得到了两类沙地生长季根系层土壤水分概率密度函数p(s),其峰值及峰值出现的位置和峰的阔度均与观测结果很接近,说明Laio模型能对科尔沁沙地土壤水分概率密度函数进行较好的模拟。④ Laio模型涉及的13个参数中,对p(s)最为敏感的参数是降水频率λ、平均降水量α、最大蒸散量E_max、水分胁迫点s*和凋萎系数s_w,主要影响p(s)曲线的峰值。