ArcGIS Model Builder在历史数据处理中的应用

在智慧潍坊时空大数据与云平台的建设中,需要将历史地形图数据进行数据入库。与传统的地形图人工内业数据入库处理方法相比,基于ArcGISModelBuilder技术对数据处理过程建模,对数据进行自动化处理的做法在作业中具有极大的优势。利用该工具创建了房屋、高程点、控制点等几种地物的自动化处理模型,实现了多种地形图要素的自动化处理,简化了传统的地形图入库作业流程,提高了数据处理效率。该文以潍坊市历史地形图为例,验证了该方法在保证数据质量的同时,能够有效提高数据的生产效率,为历史地形图数据的生产入库提供了切实可行的操作思路和实现工具,同时可为其他地区历史地形图数据入库工作提供参考。     

中美县级土地整治政策对比研究

通过对比分析美国洛杉矶县住房供应规划中空闲地和低效利用地整治与我国县级城乡建设用地增减挂钩规划中农村空闲地和低效利用地整治在目的、空闲地和低效利用地确定、公共参与、与总体规划关系方面的差异,分析了我国目前县级城乡建设用地增减挂钩规划存在的不足,并进行了讨论。     

“双碳”目标下长江中游城市群生态福利绩效演变及驱动机制研究

生态福利绩效是探析自然生态与人类福利关系、衡量生态文明建设的重要工具。论文运用Super-SBM模型测度2005—2020年长江中游城市群市域尺度生态福利绩效,在识别其时空演变特征的基础上,运用面板Tobit模型探讨驱动生态福利绩效演变的因子,最后在“碳达峰、碳中和”目标下揭示其演变的驱动机制。研究发现： ① 2005—2020年长江中游城市群生态福利绩效呈现出“缓慢衰退→波动→快速发展”的演变特征;② 长江中游城市群生态福利绩效总体上呈“核心—外围”态势,武汉城市圈、环长株潭城市群、环鄱阳湖城市群交界处“中部塌陷”特征明显;③ 长江中游城市群生态福利绩效时空演变是在技术进步、环境规制、产业结构、人口集聚、发展共享、对外开放等多因子循环累积和共同推动下形成的,存在内源转化与外源驱动双重作用路径,并且与碳排放强度密切相关。在“双碳”目标下揭示生态福利绩效时空演变及驱动机制,有助于厘清自然生态与人类福利的转化机理以及生态福利绩效与碳排放的作用关系,可为城市群高质量发展和生态文明建设提供参考。     

A global review of the impact of forest property rights interventions on poverty

Secure property rights are widely understood as critical for socio-economic development and sustainable land management in forested areas. Policies and programs, ranging from devolution of specific resource rights to formal land titling, have therefore been implemented to strengthen forest tenure and property rights in countries around the world. Despite the prevalence and importance of these efforts, however, systematic understanding of their effects on poverty remains lacking. We address this gap by systematically reviewing evidence on the impact of forest property rights interventions on poverty worldwide. We drew from a systematic map of evidence on forest-poverty links (Cheng et al., 2019) and used a population-intervention-comparator-outcome (PICO) framework to identify relevant studies. Our final dataset included 61 articles published from 2002 to 2016 comprising 91 case studies across 24 countries. Of these, only 11 articles (22 cases) used quasi-experimental methods to control for confounders. We find that almost all studied interventions (n = 88; 97%) focused on rights to access a forest area or withdraw resources from it. Relatively few studied interventions supported the more extensive property rights of exclusion (32%) and alienation (10%). Overall, reported impacts on both income/consumption and capital/assets dimensions of poverty were generally positive or mixed. Results from more robust quasi-experimental assessments showed greater variation, with case studies as likely to report negative as positive impacts on both poverty dimensions. We find tentative support for the economic theory that more secure property rights yield positive welfare effects. However, the paucity of evidence from more robust impact assessments constrains our ability to draw generalizable conclusions about the poverty impacts of different kinds of forest property rights interventions.     

Geochemical Characteristics and Genetic Significance of Datangpo‐Type Manganese Ore Deposits during the Cryogenian Period

The Datangpo‐type manganese ore deposits, which formed during the Nanhuan (Cryogenian) period and are located in northeastern Guizhou and adjacent areas, are one of the most important manganese resources in China, showing good prospecting potential. Many middle‐to‐large deposits, and even super‐large mineral deposits, have been discovered. However, the genesis of manganese ore deposits is still controversial and remains a long‐standing source of debate; there are several viewpoints including biogenesis, hydrothermal sedimentation, gravity flows, cold‐spring carbonates, etc. Geochemical data from several manganese ore deposits show that there are positive correlations between Al₂O₃ and TiO₂, SiO₂, K₂O, and Na₂O, and strong negative correlations between Al₂O₃ and CaO, MgO, and MnO in black shales and manganese ores. U, Mo, and V show distinct enrichment in black shales and inconspicuous enrichment in Mn ores. Ba and Rb show strong positive correlations with K₂O in manganese ores. Cu, Ni, and Zn show clear correlations with total iron in both manganese ores and black shales. ∑REE of manganese ores has a large range with evident positive Ce anomalies and positive Eu anomalies. The Post Archean Australian Shale (PAAS) normalized rare earth element (REE) distribution patterns of manganese ores present pronounced middle rare earth element (MREE) enrichment, producing “hat‐shaped” REE plots. ∑REE of black shales is more variable compared with PAAS, and the PAAS‐normalized REE distribution patterns appear as “flat‐shaped” REE plots, lacking evident anomaly characteristics. δ¹³C values of carbonate in both manganese ores and the black shales show observable negative excursions. The comprehensive analysis suggests that the black shales formed in a reducing and quiet water column, while the manganese ores formed in oxic muddy seawater, which resulted from periodic transgressions. There was an oxidation–reduction cycle of manganese between the top water body and the bottom water body caused by the transgressions during the early Datangpo, which resulted in the dissolution of manganese. Through the exchange of the euphotic zone water and the bottom water, and episodic inflow of oxygenated water, the manganese in the bottom water was oxidized to Mn‐oxyhydroxides and rapidly buried along with algae. In the early diagenetic stage, Mn‐oxyhydroxides were reduced and dissolved in the anoxic pore water and then transformed into Mn‐carbonates by reacting with HCO₃^? from the degradation of organic matter or from seawater. In the intervals between transgressions, continuous supplies of terrigenous clastics and the high productive rates of organic matter in the euphotic zone resulted in the deposition of the black shales enriched in organic matter.     

基于“灰箱”模型的海洋公共治理责任结构论证分析

海洋公共治理是我国政府治理现代化体系建设的重要组成内容。作为适应新时期"海洋强国"战略实施的海洋公共治理被认作一种异于传统陆地政府治理的新型地公共治理活动,存在着自身一定的责任结构体系。收集了2012-2016年的六大类海洋责任案例(主要是海洋执法案例),以时间(t)、案例数量(q)、制度(I)、人(H)来构建"灰箱"模型,通过考察问责复发率(P)分析海洋公共责任(R)的问题及原因。研究结果表明:(1)我国海洋公共治理过程中应亟须重视"海洋政府"理念,问责事件也从样本数量上得到了体现;(2)海洋公共治理的目标应是防范于未然,确保责任事件的可预期化,推进政府治理能力现代化,应当基于法治的导向来重新塑造海洋政府的责任体系;(3)我国未来海洋公共治理的责任体系建构应通过立法的方式实现责任人和责任形式的可预期化,最终实现对海洋公共治理责任法治监督的应有之义。     

基于多模型的西宁市人口规模预测

人口是反映国情、国力基本情况的重要指标,是区域研究所必须考虑的重要因素之一。合理、准确地预测城市人口规模,是城市与区域规划中首先要考虑的基本问题,也是保证规划科学性与可实施性的关键性前提。以西宁市2000-2011年历年总人口为样本数据,分别构建了一元线性回归模型、马尔萨斯模型、logistic模型及GM（1,1）模型,并进行模型检验。结果表明：（1）模型均通过模型精度检验且精度较高,GM（1,1）模型拟合度最高,均误差达到0.004%,马尔萨斯模型拟合度最低,为-1.440 8%;（2）分析模型预测精度差异产生原因及适用性,表明深入、准确地分析样本数据特征,恰当选择分析方法对于控制人口预测精度尤为重要。由于西宁市2000-2011年人口样本数据在2005及2009年数据存在波动性,破坏了其与一元线性回归模型及马尔萨斯模型的拟合度,导致在4种模型中,Logistic及GM（1,1）模型预测精度较高,而GM（1,1）模预测精度最高,所以采用GM（1,1）模型进行西宁市人口预测,得到西宁市人口预测的最终结果：2012年西宁市总人口将达到225.89×10⁴人,2015年将达到233.39×10⁴人,2020年将达到246.37×10⁴人。从结果看,未来9 a西宁市人口将呈现持续平稳增长的态势,但随着时间推进人口增长速度将逐渐下降。     

球面小波分析技术及在全球重力模型中的应用

在介绍球面小波理论的基础上,推导和比较了几种球面小波,分析了最新地球重力模型——EGM96,以此为依据,把球面小波多分辨分析用于计算全球自由空气异常及重力大地水准面,并对处理结果做出解释。     

Land degradation in the source region of the Yellow River, northeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau: classification and evaluation

Land degradation imposes a great threat to the world. It is not merely an environmental issue, but also a social and economic problem. Land desertification is among the main aspects of environment changes in the source region of the Yellow River. Previous studies focused on water resource utilization and soil erosion, but land degradation in the source region of the Yellow River even the whole Qinghai-Xizang Plateau received little attention. Based on the data obtained by field investigation and TM satellite images of 2000, this study provides the classification and evaluation information of the land degradation in the source region of the Yellow River. There are six types of land degradation in this region: water erosion in the northern mountains around the Gonghe Basin, sandy desertification in the Gonghe Basin and Upland Plain Area, aridization in the lower reaches, salinization in the Gonghe Basin, vegetation degradation in the intramontance basin and freezing and thawing erosion in the high mountains. The total degraded area is 34,429.6 km², making up 37.5% of the land in the study area. Finally, land degradation in the source region of the Yellow River was evaluated according to changes in the physical structure and chemical component of soils, land productivity, secondary soil salt and water conditions.     

天津滨海新区地面沉降趋势预测

地面沉降是我国主要的地质灾害之一,评价和预测地面沉降的发展趋势十分必要。本文引入实测沉降数学模型中的双曲线型沉降模型、指数型沉降模型和成长曲线型沉降模型,结合钻孔全断面分布式精细化监测系统获取地表以下不同层位连续的变形情况,建立了基于分布式光纤监测地层变形数据的地面沉降预测模型,可精细化实现地面沉降潜力评价。以天津市滨海新区G06光纤监测钻孔结果为例,对比了3种沉降模型的预测效果,结果表明：天津滨海地区地面沉降曲线呈现非线性衰减特征,2017年10月至2019年12月,累计沉降量已达52.4 mm,预计极限沉降量约为92.6 mm,仍有约43.4%的沉降潜力,沉降空间较大,并预计将于2050年进入沉降稳定阶段。该地区3.4~18.4 m的黏土质粉砂和粉细砂层当前沉降量较大,是目前地面沉降的主要层位,即“优势层”;18.4~38.4 m的粉质黏土和黏土质粉砂层虽当前沉降量较小但其剩余沉降量较大且沉降持续时间较长,需长期重点关注其沉降变形情况,是后期监测的“优先层”。