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Earthquake detection probability within a seismically quiet area: application to the Bruchsal geothermal field

In applications such as oil and gas production, deep geothermal energy production, underground storage, and mining, it is common practice to implement local seismic networks to monitor and to mitigate induced seismicity. For this purpose, it is crucial to determine the capability of the network to detect a seismic event of predefined magnitude in the target area. The determination of the magnitude of completeness of a network is particularly required to properly interpret seismic monitoring results. We propose a method to compute the detection probability for existing local seismic networks, which (i) strictly follows the applied detection sequence; (ii) estimates the detection capability where seismicity has not yet occurred; and (iii) delivers the results in terms of probabilities. The procedure includes a calibration of a local magnitude scale using regional earthquakes recorded by the network and located outside the monitored area. It involves pre‐processing of the seismograms recorded at each station as performed during the triggering sequence, which is assumed based on amplitude thresholds. Then, the calibrated magnitude–distance–amplitude relations are extrapolated at short distances and combined to reproduce the network detection sequence. This generates a probability to detect a seismic event of a given magnitude at a specified location. This observation‐based approach is an alternative to a fully theoretical detection capability modelling and includes field conditions. Seismic wave attenuation by geometrical spreading and intrinsic attenuation, site effect, and instrumental responses are partly accounted for by the calibration. We apply this procedure on the seismic network deployed in the Bruchsal geothermal field (Germany). Although the system was in good working order, no induced seismicity was identified in the area between June 2010, when monitoring started, and November 2012. The recording of distant seismicity during this time period, however, allowed the application of the proposed procedure. According to the applied network detection parameters, the results indicate that the absence of seismicity can be interpreted as a 95% probability that no seismic event with M_L ≥ 0.7 occurred below the network at 2.4‐km depth, i.e., in the geothermal reservoir.     

中国地震台网初至P波区域三维走时表的建立

基于LLNL-G3Dv3全球P波三维速度模型,应用FMM软件包计算并建立了中国地震台网990个台站的初至P波区域三维走时表．该走时表覆盖了以台站为中心的水平向20°×20°、 垂直向-5.1—80 km （向下为正）的三维空间. 其水平向间隔为0.2°,垂直向间隔为5 km．这样对于任一深度小于80 km的震源,均可以应用此三维走时表计算其到周围10°范围内台站的走时．中国地震台网初至P波区域三维走时表的建立,对于改善区域初至P波走时预测,提高地震定位精度有一定现实意义．      

Structure of residual oil as a function of wettability using pore-network modelling

In the water flooding of mixed-wet porous media, oil may drain down to relatively low residual oil saturations (S_or). Various studies have indicated that such low saturations can only be reached when oil layers in pore corners are included in the pore-scale modelling. These processes within a macroscopic porous medium can be modelled at the pore-scale by incorporating the fundamental physics of capillary dominated displacement within idealised pore network models. Recently, the authors have developed thermodynamic criteria for oil layer existence in pores with non-uniform wettability which takes as input geometrically and topologically representative networks, to calculate realistic S_or values for mixed-wet and oil-wet sandstones [16, 21]. This previous work is developed in this paper to include (i) the visualisation of the 3D structure of this residual oil, and (ii) a statistical analysis of this “residual/remaining” oil. Both the visualisation and the statistical analysis are done under a wide range of wettability conditions, which is reported for the first time in this paper.The structure of residual oil for strongly water wet systems is well known (where residual = remaining oil) and our model agrees with this but this structure changes radically for mixed wet systems (where residual ≠ remaining) and this has not yet been visualised experimentally. We find that for more water-wet systems high final residual oil saturations are reached at relatively small amounts of water injected and this oil is present in the pores as bulk oil. On the other hand, for more oil-wet systems we find a slow decrease of the amount of remaining oil with increasing amounts of injected water. During the process, the remaining connectivity of the oil phase is increasingly provided by oil layers only, hence the slow drainage. The final residual oil saturation, only reached in the theoretical limit of an infinite amount of injected water, is almost entirely contained in large number of (relatively low volume) oil layers, which are present in pores of most radius sizes.     

北京地区主要活断层活动参数的重力反演

采用1991~1999年首都圈重力测网的重力测量资料,根据地质调查结果确定断层初始运动模型,利用稳健—贝叶斯最小二乘方法反演北京地区4条活断层的活动参数(走滑、倾滑、引张)。反演结果表明:在1991~1999年间,北京地区活断层的运动性质均以走滑和垂直升降为主,兼有伸展特征,但运动速率都不大,约为2 mm/a。北京地区北西走向断层反演的运动特征为左旋走滑正断层,北东走向断层反演的运动特征为右旋走滑正断层。     

临汾市地震台网网内地震震级与山西省地震台网的对比研究

选取2012年3月1日至12月31日临汾市地震台网记录到的ML1.0以上地震,对每个地震进行重新定位,并与山西地震台网的定位结果进行对比分析,找到两台网所定震级的偏差系数,用以修正临汾台网的震级,提高测定结果的精度。     

面向对象的配电GIS系统空间数据模型与组织

GIS在配网自动化系统中的应用越来越深入和广泛,随着配电网络各种设备的复杂性提高,传统的分析设计方式已很难满足现有配电网络的飞速发展。面向对象的分析与设计方法作为一种先进的系统设计方法,能很好地应用于规模较大、层次较复杂的配电网络设备管理。首先简要介绍配电网络的特点和面向对象的分析方法,然后结合面向对象的分析与设计方法对配电网络的对象模型和数据组织进行了详细阐述和分析,最后以一个应用系统作为实例结束本文。     

青岛市数字遥测地震台网的监测能力

介绍青岛市数字遥测地震台网概况、动态范围以及对崂山震群的监测,说明台网的监测能力达到或超过设计目标。     

基于现代信息技术的汉唐时期新疆境内丝绸之路信息发布系统的研究与实现

以西汉、东汉、唐朝三个历史时期为研究时间域,以新疆境内的古丝绸之路为研究空间域;根据搜集的相关历史文献资料并对其进行分析,将得到的西域三十六国域址、人口、军事等信息存入MySQL数据库中;结合地理信息系统（GIS）及遥感（RS）技术,将传统的纸质地图转变成电子地图并发布相应的本地地图服务;最后,利用PHP及Flex网络技术,将前期制作的电子地图发布到Internet上,供公众浏览、查询、学习交流等之用。本研究将传统的考古学与现代信息技术进行结合,实现了两者的完美融合,弥补了传统考古学过于专注学术研究而忽略应用的缺陷,为公众免费提供服务的同时,也为丝绸之路的进一步研究提供参考资料,同时为丝绸之路的申遗工作奠定基础。     

基于粗糙集的BP神经网络在震例中的应用研究

采用《中国震例》作为数据源,通过初步整理分析和预处理,构建了较完备的震例研究样本集。尝试将粗糙集与BP神经网络相结合的方法引入到震例研究中,用基于粗糙集的属性约简算法从众多复杂的地震异常指标中筛选出对最终分类起决定作用的核心异常作为输入,震级作为输出,构建了泛化能力强的BP神经网络模型来模拟异常与地震之间的不确定关系。仿真测试结果表明:地震震级预测精度误差基本控制在-0.5～0.5级之间。