重庆市都市区人口、资源、环境与经济系统协调发展探析

人口、资源、环境与经济系统的协调是城市经济系统可持续发展的核心．但系统协调度的量化具有高度的复杂性、开放性和不确定性。以重庆市都市区为例，采用协调度模型(公式)计算出1996～2001年各年的协调度值，并结合重庆市实际对协调度进行了等级划分和判识，结果表明：从1996～2001年系统协调度呈现由极不协调到不协调到弱协调的变化趋势，同时也表明系统协调度总体水平尚低。最后提出了促进重庆市都市区系统协调发展的若干对策建议。     

西安地区部分古遗址考古地磁研究

通过对陕西耀州窑遗址内4个古窑,临潼兵马俑一号坑,西铜一级公路经过黄堡工地开挖的两个五代窑,以及耀州窑博物馆仓库工地内开挖的一个金代窑和一个春秋窑遗址的古地磁研究,初步得出了西安地区古地磁场变化的规律,为鉴定从春秋到金代西安地区的古遗址、古文物提供了考古地磁学上的一个粗略的标准。     

Microclimatic characterization of a karstic cave: human impact on microenvironmental parameters of a prehistoric rock art cave (Candamo Cave, northern Spain)

The Candamo Cave contains an important group of paleolithic paintings which have been seriously deteriorated due to mass tourism. In this work, an analysis was carried out of different climatic parameters (CO₂, temperature, humidity, ²²²Rn) during annual cycles with the cave closed to the public and during an experimental period of controlled visits. The effect of visits on the geochemical characteristics of karstic water was also analyzed together with the cave ventilation. The natural variations in the cave air CO₂ were above 3000 ppm, the increase produced through visits was only 100–110 ppm and since the humidity is almost permanently at saturation point, the critical parameter which limits the visitor capacity becomes air temperature. The temperature changes during the annual cycle are of the order of 1  °C in the external part and less than 0.5  °C in the internal part of the cave and a maximum increase of 0.13  °C was observed during the period of the visits. The ²²²Rn and CO₂ concentration minimums in the summer period (July–October) show that this is the most propitious time for visits, since the greatest ventilation is produced in the cave at this time and, therefore, the greatest capacity for recovery. The geochemistry of the water, on the other hand, indicated that this is the period of the year in which processes of wall corrosion can be most easily introduced, although this would be of limited magnitude. The visitor capacity calculated was 29 visitors/day. Received: 29 August 1996 · Accepted: 23 June 1997     

自然灾害复杂性研究

从自然灾害系统的观点出发,阐述了自然灾害系统的特点,提出了自然灾害复杂性的概念。基于前人研究的一些成果,讨论了分形,混沌,人工神经网络等非线性理论以及定性与定量综合集成技术在自然灾复杂性研究中的应用。     

中国传统民居建筑文化的自然地理背景

讨论了气候、地貌与水文、地质与植被等自然地理要素对中国传统民居建筑的格局、型式、风格、特色等方面的影响。在此基础上分析了以功利观、审美观和生态观为内涵的中国传统民居建筑文化的自然观。     

自然类比法对张北──尚义6.2级地震序列类型和震后趋势早期判断实例

用自然类比法对1998年1月10日张北─尚义6．2级地震序列类型和震后趋势进行了早期判断,找出了与之最相似的四个序列是1976年9月23日巴音木仁6．2级地震（S17）、1996年5月3日包头6．4级地震（558）、1985年4月18日禄劝6．3级地震（S34）和1984年5月21日南黄海6．0级地震（S33）。由此判断张北地震序列为主震余震型,推算最大余震震级应在4．3～4．7之间,一个月内4级以上余震数可能在11～22次之间。实测结果张北地震最大余震震级4．6,一个月内4级以上余震数18次,均在预测范围内。     

贵金属资源的应用及开发

将贵金属的应用,资源分布,生产和贵金属的分析化学结合在一起进行了综述,由于贵金属资源的短缺性及考虑可持续发展战略,特别介绍了贵金属资源的二次回收问题,并对其将来的发展作了一定的评价和展望。     

计算机技术与地矿工作信息化

地矿工作信息化已经成为时代的潮流。地矿工作信息化水平,也已经成为衡量地矿工作现代化程度的主要标志。地矿工作信息化工程的核心,是地质矿产信息系统建设,而主要技术手段是计算机应用。当前,计算机应用已经渗透到地质工作的全过程,成为地质工作新技术、新方法应用的主流,极大地推动了地矿工作的前进。地矿工作信息化领域的计算机应用涉及计算机技术领域的多个分支前缘。本文根据所掌握的几个主要方面的资料,评介了国内外计算机技术在地矿工作信息化领域的应用现状与发展趋势。     

Monitoring,causality, and uncertainty in a stratospheric context

Our increasingly complex understanding of stratospheric chemistry and transport processes leaves us with various theoretical possibilities of appreciable and perhaps serious environmental impact due to human activities. These possibilities raise policy questions in which the economic and other costs of regulating human activities must be weighed against the possible consequences of no such regulation. The natural variability of the atmosphere, the physical and other limitations on our global sampling and monitoring abilities, and the difficulties in establishing causal connections leave us in a state of uncertainty as to the reality and magnitude of at least some of these theoretical environmental impacts. Policy-makers must make decisions in the face of these uncertainties.The proper role of scientists as such in narrowing and quantifying the uncertainties is discussed, with particular regard to the evidence that cultural and other biases often affect individual scientists' conclusions. Conscious efforts are needed to minimize bias, quantify uncertainties, and speed up the process of scientific consensus-building. A careful distinction should be drawn between scientifically determined probabilities, and cost-benefit analyses which necessarily involve value judgments.     

The role of social norms in climate adaptation: Mediating risk perception and flood insurance purchase

Flood insurance plays an important role in climate adaptation by recovering insured losses in the event of catastrophic flooding. Voluntary adoption of flood insurance has been seen as a function of risk perception that is shaped by social norms. This paper attempts to clarify the relationship between these factors. It is based on a household survey conducted in the eastern cities of Australia and involving a total of 501 randomly selected residents. Results of a path analysis show that the likelihood of having flood insurance cover was associated with perceived social norms, but not perceived flood risk. In addition, perceived norms and risk were statistically related to each other. It is concluded that social norms played a mediating role between insuring decision and risk perception. Risk perception might influence the insuring decision indirectly through shaping perception of social norms. This implies that adaptive behaviour is not necessarily a function of risk perception, but an outcome of its impacts upon the ways in which the individuals situate themselves in their social circles or the society. There is a feedback process in which individual perceptions of risk manifest as both a cause and effect, shaping and being shaped by the socio-cultural context.