扎龙湿地土地利用类型评价研究

扎龙湿地属于典型的芦苇沼泽湿地,由于扎龙湿地水环境的变化,扎龙湿地土地利用类型的变化为:耕地、居民地、盐碱地总体上略呈增加趋势,草地呈减少趋势,湖泊和水库、明水沼泽、芦苇沼泽等湿地面积变化与来水量的丰枯变化相关,明水沼泽和芦苇沼泽的变化趋势呈反相关.土地利用类型对湿地面积的影响程度最大的是居民地面积,其次是耕地、盐碱地、草地面积的变化.     

美国国家科学基金会(NSF)地学学部(GEO)基金资助战略分析

美国国家科学基金会（NSF）是国际上具有重要影响的资助基础科学研究的政府基金机构，对促进美国基础科学研究的发展和保持世界领先地位做出了重要贡献。其对基础研究的资助政策、方向遴选、评审程序、经费分配、管理机制等，形成了一套行之有效的模式，对其它国家的基础研究政府资助机构具有借鉴和示范意义。在分析美国NSF近3年经费状况及其领域分配情况、近5年项目受理与批准情况、近12年项目评议情况的基础上，重点分析了地学学部（GEO）的近期重点资助领域、近3年按照NSF的整体优先领域和战略产出目标的经费分配情况、近10年按科学处的经费分配情况及变化趋势、各科学处2004—2006财政年度经费状况与重点资助领域、近10年项目的资助率与资助强度变化情况等。NSF地学学部是美国政府资助以大学为主的地学基础研究的主要渠道，其经费约占美国政府资助地学基础研究经费的62%。对NSF的基金项目资助战略，特别是对其地学学部项目的资助情况予以全面分析，对我国相关部门的管理工作有重要参考价值和借鉴意义。     

Multi‐basin depositional framework for moisture‐balance reconstruction during the last 1300 years at Lake Bogoria,central Kenya Rift Valley

Multi‐proxy analysis of sediment cores from five key locations in hypersaline, alkaline Lake Bogoria (central Kenya Rift Valley) has allowed reconstruction of its history of depositional and hydrological change during the past 1300 years. Analyses including organic matter and carbonate content, granulometry, mineralogical composition, charcoal counting and high‐resolution scanning of magnetic susceptibility and elemental geochemistry resulted in a detailed sedimentological and compositional characterization of lacustrine deposits in the three lake basins and on the two sills separating them. These palaeolimnological data were supplemented with information on present‐day sedimentation conditions based on seasonal sampling of settling particles and on measurement of physicochemical profiles through the water column. A new age model based on ²¹⁰Pb, ¹³⁷Cs and ¹⁴C dating captures the sediment chronology of this hydrochemically complex and geothermally fed lake. An extensive set of chronological tie points between the equivalent high‐resolution proxy time series of the five sediment sequences allowed transfer of radiometric dates between the basins, enabling interbasin comparison of sedimentation dynamics through time. The resulting reconstruction demonstrates considerable moisture‐balance variability through time, reflecting regional hydroclimate dynamics over the past 1300 years. Between ca 690 and 950 AD , the central and southern basins of Lake Bogoria were reduced to shallow and separated brine pools. In the former, occasional near‐complete desiccation triggered massive trona precipitation. Between ca 950 and 1100 AD , slightly higher water levels allowed the build‐up of high pCO ₂ leading to precipitation of nahcolite still under strongly evaporative conditions. Lake Bogoria experienced a pronounced highstand between ca 1100 and 1350 AD , only to recede again afterwards. For a substantial part of the time between ca 1350 and 1800 AD , the northern basin was probably disconnected from the united central and southern basins. Throughout the last two centuries, lake level has been relatively high compared to the rest of the past millennium. Evidence for increased terrestrial sediment supply in recent decades, due to anthropogenic soil erosion in the wider Bogoria catchment, is a reason for concern about possible adverse impacts on the unique ecosystem of Lake Bogoria.     

托木尔峰国家级自然保护区土地利用/覆被变化及驱动力分析

利用保护区的3期Landsat TM遥感影像数据,运用GIS技术并结合区域生态环境质量指数,对托木尔峰自然保护区土地利用/覆被变化及其驱动力进行分析。结果表明:近27 a来,冰川和草地面积持续增长,增幅分别为12.37%和99.36%;水体和荒地面积持续减少,减幅为23.07%和12.15%;林地前阶段(1989-2003年)减少16.77%,后阶段(2003-2016年)增加57.91%。区域土地利用/覆被综合动态度,前阶段为0.39%,后阶段为0.36%;前阶段转化率为21.95%,后阶段转化率为18.91%。水体、草地和林地的转化率较高,冰川和荒地的转化率较低;尽管土地利用/覆被类型内部结构变化较复杂、频繁,但各类型之间相互转换的活跃程度逐渐趋于平缓。研究区生态环境质量指数呈增长趋势,年均增长率为0.31%,生态环境逐年改善。致使研究区生态环境质量改善的主要驱动力为气候的变暖湿和土地利用政策的改变。近27 a来,研究区中高山带降水量的增加,扩大了保护区冰川雪地的面积;晋升为国家级自然保护区后的土地利用政策,有效遏制了人类活动对保护区土地利用/覆被的影响,进而使生态贡献率较低的荒地转化为生态贡献率高的林草地,提高了区域生态环境的质量。     

The Piltdown Skull Site: the rise and fall of Britain's first geological National Nature Reserve and its place in the history of nature conservation

The Piltdown hoax is one of the best known cases of scientific forgery in the world and has been the subject of hundreds of papers, books, articles, press reports and web-pages. Whilst the story of the hoax has secured a place in history, the pioneering role played by the site of the Piltdown ‘finds’, the Piltdown Skull Site, in the early days of British nature conservation has been forgotten. This paper describes how the Piltdown Skull Site in East Sussex, England, a site now known to be of little or no scientific importance, almost became Britain's first National Nature Reserve (NNR), and how, in 1952, it did become Britain's first geological NNR. It describes how the newly formed Nature Conservancy (NC) and the British Museum (Natural History) (BM(NH)) worked together at Piltdown to undertake innovative site management that played a part in exposing the hoax and describes what happened to the NNR as the details of the forgery emerged. Although the NC was clearly embarrassed by the NNR once the hoax was revealed, it is argued here that there was little to be ashamed of and much to be commended.     

Informing national adaptation for sustainable development through spatial systems modelling

Acute climate-change hazards, such as floods or storm surges, can affect a nation’s built and natural environment assets that are critical for development and achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To reduce the impacts of such acute climate-change hazards and safeguard development, national decision-makers require evidence on where and how hazards affect SDG achievement to better inform adaptation. Here, we develop a systems methodology that spatially models the impacts of climate-change hazards across a nation’s entire built and natural environment assets and its interdependent influences on the SDG targets to inform national adaptation. We apply our methodology in Saint Lucia through a participatory approach with decision-makers across 18 government ministries, academia, and the private sector. Results reveal that acute climate-change hazards can affect half of Saint Lucia’s assets across 22 sectors, which can influence 89% of all SDG targets. Application of our methodology provided evidence on where and how to prioritise adaptation, thereby helping to add spatial granularity to 52 measures under Saint Lucia’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP) as well as specificity on how limited capacity for cross-sectoral coordination can be directed to safeguard SDG targets. Adaptation does not necessarily imply investing in physical asset protection: results show the need to protect critical natural environments which provide important adaptation services to the built environment. As more nations develop and revise their NAPs and Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement, strategic planning across sectors – as demonstrated in Saint Lucia – will be critical to facilitate adaptation that safeguards SDG achievement.     

Emissions trading and competitiveness: lessons from Germany

Germany's National Allocation Plans (NAP I and NAP II) for implementing the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) are critically analysed. Emissions trading has created a new scarcity, and grandfathering constitutes a subsidy that is used to reach additional policy goals related to energy and distribution policy. With respect to energy policy, the objective was to protect the German coal industry; but in terms of distribution policy the hidden agenda was to allocate as many emissions allowances as possible to the industries involved. The whole discussion is based on the false premise that a generous, or at least ‘needs-based’, allocation of costless emissions allowances increases an industry's competitiveness. As a consequence, NAP I is overburdened with several complex special rules and exemptions which distort the incentive effect of emissions trading, thus making climate change mitigation in Germany more costly than necessary. The attempted continuation of this policy, in particular with regard to new installations and an over-generous cap, has led to the European Commission's rejection of these rules in the German NAP II in November 2006. Despite significant improvements since then, some important shortfalls remain. Unfortunately, the economic literature available on this topic refers to highly stylized models of allocation rules and neglects the concrete details of the German NAP II. This article tries to close this gap in the literature by analysing the most distorting rules as well as the most important and arguments of the misguided debate on competitiveness.     

National ownership in the implementation of global climate policy in Uganda

Abstract

This article explores the history, from a developing country perspective, of how external interventions to implement global policies on the Climate Convention and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have been integrated into national development policy frameworks in the period 1990–2005. The main question asked is to what extent external interventions have formed part of a country-driven approach in Uganda. The conflicting national and global priorities concerning the need for adaptation to the impacts of climate change versus the need for global mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are explored first. Against this background, Uganda's policy response to climate change is reviewed. National climate policies are found not to exist, and the implementation of global policies is not integrated into national policy frameworks, partly due to conflicting national and global priorities. Given limited national awareness and the fact that climate policy is marginal compared to other national interests in Uganda, the experiences with donor support for the implementation of global climate policy nationally are analysed. This article demonstrates that neither national policies nor national management of donor support have secured a country-driven approach to external interventions in Uganda.     

气候变化对中国国家安全的影响

基于政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第四次评估报告和2007年中国发布的气候变化国家评估报告的结果,整理、分类和提炼出关系中国国家安全的气候变化要素及其影响的演变趋势和区域响应特征,并分析其产生的安全后果.结果表明,基础设施的损毁、基础自然资源的缺失以及人民生命财产损失是气候变化产生的三个关键社会经济影响.气候变化...