近50年新疆气温和降水量变化及其与NAO指数的交叉小波谱分析

利用1961—2008年的逐日降水和气温资料,采用线性趋势、小波功率谱和交叉小波谱等方法分析了新疆降水和气温的变化,以及与北大西洋涛动(NAO)变化之间的关系。结果表明,近50年新疆存在降水增多和气温上升的趋势,有暖湿化现象,这与西北地区由暖干趋于暖湿的结论相一致。同时,新疆平均年降水量与NAO存在准2年和准6年周期,夏季降水量与NAO存在准3年和准5年周期,冬季降水量与NAO存在准3年周期。新疆年均气温与NAO存在准3年周期,夏季气温与NAO存在准3年周期,冬季气温与NAO存在准3年和准8年周期。新疆全年、冬季和夏季的降水与NAO的周期中,通过显著性检验的高值正相关大多集中在20世纪80年代;而气温与NAO的周期中,通过显著性检验的高值正相关也大多集中在80年代。     

Nitrogen and carbon cycling in the North Sea and exchange with the North Atlantic—A model study. Part I. Nitrogen budget and fluxes

The three-dimensional biogeochemical model ECOHAM was applied to the Northwest European Shelf (47°41′–63°53′N, 15°5′W–13°55′E) for the years 1993–1996. Nitrogen budgets were calculated for the years 1995 and 1996 for the inner shelf region, the North Sea (511,725 km²). Simulated temperatures as well as nitrate, oxygen, and chlorophyll concentrations are compared with observations.     

长江流域月降水的时空变化及其与AO/NAO的时滞相关分析

运用旋转经验正交函数(REOF)和交叉小波变换方法,分析了长江流域1960—2012年月降水的时空分布特征及其与AO/NAO的时滞相关关系。结果表明:(1)长江流域月降水异常分布的局域特征明显,可划分为4个主要的空间异常型:两湖平原型、东南丘陵型、西南型及北方型;(2) 4个主要的空间异常模态的累计贡献率达45. 8%,其中REOF1(18. 9%)的正异常区位于巫山及两湖平原地区;东南丘陵一带为REOF2(12. 3%)的正值中心,REOF3(8. 9%)突出了云贵高原北部和四川盆地南部的正异常区; REOF4(5. 7%)的负值中心处于四川盆地北部及其以北地区。这4个模态的时间系数(RPCk)的变化幅度较大,且其位相均呈不规则的正负交替,表明各降水异常区具有复杂的时间演变特征;(3) 4个主要异常模态与AO、NAO在特定时间尺度皆存在显著相关的现象,巫山及两湖平原地区、四川盆地北部及其以北地区的月降水均对AO表现出及时响应;东南丘陵一带的月降水对AO、NAO的最佳滞后响应时间都较长。     

Subseasonal variability and predictability of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation in BCC_AGCM2.2

The subseasonal variability and predictability of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) is evaluated using a full set of hindcasts generated from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.2 (BCC_AGCM2.2). It is shown that the predictability of the monthly mean AO/NAO index varies seasonally, with the highest predictability during winter (December–March) and the lowest during autumn (August–November), with respect to both observations and BCC_AGCM2.2 results. As compared with the persistence prediction skill of observations, the model skillfully predicts the monthly mean AO/NAO index with a one-pentad lead time during all winter months, and with a lead time of up to two pentads in December and January. During winter, BCC_AGCM2.2 exhibits an acceptable skill in predicting the daily AO/NAO index of ∼9 days, which is higher than the persistence prediction skill of observations of ∼4 days. Further analysis suggests that improvements in the simulation of storm track activity, synoptic eddy feedback, and troposphere–stratosphere coupling in the Northern Hemisphere could help to improve the prediction skill of subseasonal AO/NAO variability by BCC_AGCM2.2 during winter. In particular, BCC_AGCM2.2 underestimates storm track activity intensity but overestimates troposphere–stratosphere coupling, as compared with observations, thus providing a clue to further improvements in model performance.     

Successful colonization of the calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa in the oligo-mesohaline area of the Gironde estuary (SW France) – Natural or anthropogenic forcing?

The copepod Acartia tonsa appeared in Europe in the first half of the 20th century and colonized progressively European seas and estuaries, possibly transferred from North Atlantic Coast of America. It had been reported in the polyhaline area of the Gironde estuary for a long time but was first recorded in the oligo-mesohaline area in 1983. Its abundance has been increasing significantly. High abundances of A. tonsa were reported since 1999, supplanting the abundances of its autochthonous congeneric species, Acartia bifilosa. This colonization was characterized by analyzing the mean seasonal variability: (1) for three 5-year periods corresponding to three different steps of A. tonsa appearance (1978–1982, A. tonsa was absent; 1988–1992, low abundances of the species; and 1999–2003, high abundances of A. tonsa) in the oligo-mesohaline area and (2) for three stations distributed along the salinity gradient during the recent period. The aim of this work was to define if this colonization was due to natural or anthropogenic forcing and to evaluate its possible impact on autochthonous zooplanktonic community.Both natural and anthropogenic forcings seem to explain the colonization of Acartia tonsa in the oligo-mesohaline area of the Gironde estuary. First records (1983–1988) could be due to marine water inputs caused by high values of the North Atlantic Oscillation index. The global warming which caused the increase of the summer warm period, the marinisation of the system and the local decrease of the turbidity should have been the key factors favoring the establishment of the species. Anthropogenic forcings as the establishment of the nuclear power plant which locally causes warmer conditions are also important factors explaining the differences of seasonal cycle observed between oligo-mesohaline area and other stations: the seasonal pattern of A. tonsa in the oligo-mesohaline area was indeed characterized by an autumnal peak of abundances which has been observed in other stations and in many North European estuaries, and by a second spring peak that had only been observed in Southern estuaries.The introduction of Acartia tonsa in the Gironde estuary significantly changed the seasonal pattern of autochthonous copepods, by limiting their seasonal abundances without affecting their long-term population stability. Finally, the successful colonization of A. tonsa had led to the spread of the seasonal zooplanktonic production which could have had an impact on fish and shrimp productions.     

Future impact of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol on North Atlantic climate

We examine the simulated future change of the North Atlantic winter climate influenced by anthropogenic greenhouses gases and sulfate aerosol. Two simulations performed with the climate model ECHAM4/OPYC3 are investigated: a simulation forced by greenhouse gases and a simulation forced by greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol. Only the direct aerosol effect on the clear-sky radiative fluxes is considered. The sulfate aerosol has a significant impact on temperature, radiative quantities, precipitation and atmospheric dynamics. Generally, we find a similar, but weaker future climate response if sulfate aerosol is considered additionally. Due to the induced negative top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcing, the future warming is attenuated. We find no significant future trends in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in both simulations. However, the aerosol seems to have a balancing effect on the occurence of extreme NAO events. The simulated correlation patterns of the NAO index with temperature and precipitation, respectively, agree well with observations up to the present. The extent of the regions influenced by the NAO tends to be reduced under strong greenhouse gas forcing. If sulfate is included and the warming is smaller, this tendency is reversed. Also, the future decrease in baroclinicity is smaller due to the aerosols’ cooling effect and the poleward shift in track density is partly offset. Our findings imply that in simulations where aerosol cooling is neglected, the magnitude of the future warming over the North Atlantic region is overestimated, and correlation patterns differ from those based on the future simulation including aerosols.     

Sunspot-like and ENSO/NAO-like periodicities in lacustrinelaminated sediments of the Pliocene Villarroya Basin (La Rioja,Spain)

This is a study of an extremely good outcrop of 1745 varves inthe Villarroya Pliocene Basin (Spain). The thicknesses of the light and darklayers, which were obtained from enlarged photograph negatives, are dealt withseparately, and three time series, of light, dark, and the sum of both layers,are performed. Periodicities of about 12, 6–7 and 2–3 years havebeen obtained. The origin of the recurrent behaviour of the sediments withthese periods could be related to natural phenomena like sunspot cycles, ElNiño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) andQuasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO), as these phenomena are capable of modulatingthe climate in this frequency band. From our point of view, there could be aclose relationship between sedimentation in the Villarroya Basin and thesenatural phenomena, which is moved through climate. The light layers record therun-off of gastropods, ostracods and charophytes from a seasonal productivitycycle, and are generated during late summer and autumn. It seems clear that theclimatic information provided by these cycles corresponds mainly to summertime, which would be translated into a variation of the light layer thicknessdue to a more or less intense development of the flora and fauna, being thickerin years of higher temperatures and thinner in years of lower temperatures.Considering the results, we would suggest that the sedimentation of thesematerials in the Pliocene was driven by solar activity or/and ENSO, NAO, andQBO phenomena. Nowadays these phenomena produce rainfall and temperaturechanges with the cyclicities shown in this study and we think they could haveoperated in the same way in Pliocene times.     

盛夏北极边缘海冰与来年冬季NAO之联系

许多研究认为,只有北大西洋涛动(NAO)是一种具有物理意义的模态,而北极涛动(AO)则是EOF分解得到的一种统计假象模态。为了从一个新的角度进一步探讨二者的差别,我们运用附条件的最大协方差分析(CMCA)统计了前期北极边缘海冰密集度(MSCI)与来年冬季NAO之间的跨季节遥相关关系,其中的ENSO信号和线性趋势已经在分析之前被去除。统计显著性结果表明:冬季负位相的NAO信号可以追溯到6个月前自盛夏开始至早冬季节北极MSCI异常的逐步演变。然而根据先前的研究,北极海冰异常仅可以超前冬季AO 大概4个月表现出显著信号。这表明盛夏北极MSCI的持续异常对来年冬季NAO的影响比对AO更强,同时也从另一个角度证实了AO与NAO确实存在差异。进一步分析还表明,前期MSCI异常的逐步演变主要与海表面热通量及气温异常有关。此外,我们还重新审视了负位相的NAO对北半球冬季气候异常的影响以及可能的物理机制。