Modeling the risk of spread and establishment for Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) in Massachusetts from 2008-2009

Land managers responsible for invasive species removal in the USA require tools to prevent the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) (ALB) from decimating the maple-dominant hardwood forests of Massachusetts and New England. Species distribution models (SDMs) and spread models have been applied individually to predict the invasion distribution and rate of spread, but the combination of both models can increase the accuracy of predictions of species spread over time when habitat suitability is heterogeneous across landscapes. First, a SDM was fit to 2008 ALB presence-only locations. Then, a stratified spread model was generated to measure the probability of spread due to natural and human causes. Finally, the SDM and spread models were combined to evaluate the risk of ALB spread in Central Massachusetts in 2008–2009. The SDM predicted many urban locations in Central Massachusetts as having suitable environments for species establishment. The combined model shows the greatest risk of spread and establishment in suitable locations immediately surrounding the epicentre of the ALB outbreak in Northern Worcester with lower risk areas in suitable locations only accessible through long-range dispersal from access to human transportation networks. The risk map achieved an accuracy of 67% using 2009 ALB locations for model validation. This model framework can effectively provide risk managers with valuable information concerning the timing and spatial extent of spread/establishment risk of ALB and potential strategies needed for effective future risk management efforts.     

Effect of sensor modelling methods on computation of 3-D coordinates from Cartosat-1 stereo data

The orbital and the rational polynomial coefficients (RPC) models are the two most commonly used models to compute a three-dimensional coordinates from an image stereo-pair. But it is still confusing that with the identical user provided inputs, which one of these two models provides more accurate digital elevation model (DEM), especially for mountainous terrain. This study aimed to find out the answer by evaluating the impact of used models on the vertical accuracy of DEM extracted from Cartosat-1 stereo data. We used high-accuracy photogrammetric DEM as the reference DEM. Apart from general variations in statistics, surprisingly in a few instances, both the DEMs provided contrasting results, thus proving the significance of this study. The computed root mean square errors and linear error at 90% (LE90) were lower in case of RPC DEM for various classes of slope, aspect and land cover, thus suggesting its better relative accuracy.     

四川盆地回龙地区下侏罗统自流井组大安寨段混积岩特征及模式

川西回龙地区自流井组大安寨段发育湖相碳酸盐岩和碎屑岩的混合沉积,结合野外露头、钻井岩芯、测井和显微组构等资料的综合分析,对该研究区混积岩沉积微相特征进行了精细刻画。研究认为,回龙地区大安寨段属湖泊混合沉积相,分为滨浅湖混合沉积和半深湖混合沉积两个亚相,并划分了五个沉积微相,分别为高能介壳滩混合沉积微相,低能介壳滩混合沉积微相,砂质浅滩混合沉积微相,浅湖混合沉积微相以及半深湖混合沉积微相。基于所划分的混合沉积相的特征和四川盆地以及研究区回龙大安寨段在侏罗纪的沉积相演变过程,分析了该区混积岩的成因及混合沉积演化模式。得出结论:研究区湖相混合沉积主要受物源供给和水动力条件的控制,在五种不同混合沉积微相控制作用下形成了不同类型的混积岩。     

进积型三角洲交汇区沉积模式--以东营凹陷沙三中亚段为例

作为碎屑岩储层发育的最主要沉积相类型之一,进积型三角洲在油气勘探领域具有举足轻重的地位;加强对进积型三角洲沉积模式的研究,对于油气储层预测具有重要现实意义。渤海湾盆地东营凹陷古近纪湖盆内发育的东营三角洲和永安三角洲在沙河街组三段中亚段沉积期发生了交汇,而有关两个三角洲的交汇方式、沉积特征及交汇区储层的预测尚未引起足够的重视。以岩芯观测、录井和地震资料为基础,分析了东营凹陷古近系沙三段中亚段三角洲交汇区沉积特征,探讨了沉积期次、交汇过程,建立了三角洲交汇区沉积模式。研究表明,东营凹陷沙河街组三段中亚段主要发育湖泊、进积型三角洲沉积;储集砂体主要形成于三角洲前缘水下分流河道,河口坝微相次之,浊积岩主要分布于深湖区。认为此前界定的东营三角洲的分布范围可能被夸大,而永安三角洲的沉积规模可能被低估。东营凹陷古近系沙三中亚段可划分为9个期次,其作用过程可分为局部交汇阶段和完全交汇阶段。三角洲水下交汇区是水流汇聚和沉积物卸载的有利场所,叠置砂体可成为有利的油气储层,因而具有重要的油气勘探价值。     

The Coarse-Grained Lacustrine Slope Apron Deposits in the Moliqing Area, Yitong Basin, Northeast China

Overlapping gravity accumulation bodies were formed on the northwestern steep slope of the Shuangyang Formation in the Moliqing fault depression of northeast China. This study analyzed in detail the spatial distribution of the lithofacies and lithofacies associations of these accumulation bodies based on more than 600 m of core sections, and summarized 12 major types of lithofacies and three types of lithofacies associations: (1) the proximal zone consists of gravelly debris flows dominated by alluvial channel conglomerates; (2) the middle zone is dominated by various gravity flow deposits and traction flow deposits; and (3) the distal zone is dominated by mudstones with intercalations of sandy debris and turbidites. Combining with the grain size cumulative probability curves analysis, we determined the transformation of debris flows to sandy debris flows and to turbidity currents in the slope zone of the basin margin, and further proposed a lacustrine slope apron model that is characterized by (1) an inconstant multiple source (line source), (2) an alternation of gravity flow deposits and traction flow deposits dominated by periodical changes in a source flood flow system, and (3) the transformation of sandy debris flow deposits into distal turbidity current deposits. This sedimentary model may be applicable to other fault depressions for predicting reservoir distribution.     

Coupled Model of Two-phase Debris Flow, Sediment Transport and Morphological Evolution

The volume fraction of the solid and liquid phase of debris flows,which evolves simultaneously across terrains,largely determines the dynamic property of debris flows. The entrainment process significantly influences the amplitude of the volume fraction. In this paper,we present a depth-averaged two-phase debris-flow model describing the simultaneous evolution of the phase velocity and depth,the solid and fluid volume fractions and the bed morphological evolution. The model employs the Mohr–Coulomb plasticity for the solid stress,and the fluid stress is modeled as a Newtonian viscous stress. The interfacial momentum transfer includes viscous drag and buoyancy. A new extended entrainment rate formula that satisfies the boundary momentum jump condition(Iverson and Ouyang,2015) is presented. In this formula,the basal traction stress is a function of the solid volume fraction and can take advantage of both the Coulomb and velocity-dependent friction models. A finite volume method using Roe's Riemann approximation is suggested to solve the equations. Three computational cases are conducted and compared with experiments or previous results. The results show that the current computational model and framework are robust and suitable for capturing the characteristics of debris flows.     

三峡工程对宜昌-监利河段水温情势的影响分析

三峡工程蓄水使得下游长江河道水温情势发生显著变化,并对下游生态环境产生重要影响。基于宜昌水文站14年的实测资料,采用纵向一维水温模型模拟分析了宜昌至监利300 km河道水温变化过程,探讨了不同蓄水期三峡工程下泄水温变化对坝下鱼类产卵场的影响程度。结果表明:①三峡工程蓄水后宜昌断面水温出现了平坦化及延迟现象,低温水和高温水效应明显;175 m蓄水期宜昌断面4月、12月,水温分别较蓄水前改变-4.3℃、3.7℃。②三峡工程的运行使得下游河道水气热交换量发生变化,但干流流量较大使得水温沿程恢复效果较弱;工程调蓄对坝下河段的影响占主导作用,三峡工程调蓄对监利断面4月、12月存在-3.2℃、3.0℃的温度影响。③三峡工程蓄水后,宜昌中华鲟产卵场冬季20.0℃的水温出现时间推迟1~4旬,监利四大家鱼产卵场春季18.0℃的水温出现时间推迟1~3旬,并随着蓄水位的抬升,推迟幅度逐渐加大。     

河南萑香洼金矿地球化学分带模型研究

河南萑香洼金矿床作为典型的构造蚀变岩型金矿床,通过研究分析该矿床F985矿化带的Ⅰ号矿体各类元素组分在不同地质体的含量变化特征,原生晕异常分带特征和地球化学轴向分带特征,建立了该矿床完整的地球化学异常分带理想模型,得出矿床地球化学异常轴向分带序列确定为:烃类、Sb(前缘晕)→As、Hg(矿头)→(矿中晕)Au、Ag、Cu、Pb、Zn、W、Mn→(矿尾晕)Mo、Co、Ni、Sn,并总结出了找矿预测标志,为该矿区深部找矿提供了一定的科学理论依据。     

水库群水沙调控的单-多目标调度模型及其应用

为缓解内蒙古河段"二级悬河"形势,以黄河上游沙漠宽谷河段为研究对象,以龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库为调控主体,开展黄河上游水沙调控研究。建立了输沙量、发电量最大的单目标模型以及多目标模型;分别采用自迭代模拟算法、逐次逼近动态规划算法(DPSA)和改进的非支配排序遗传优化算法(NSGA-Ⅱ)求解模型;设置了初始、常规、优化和联合优化4种方案。通过实例计算,联合优化调度方案的区间总冲刷量达到了0.38亿t,梯级发电量148.22亿kW·h。该方案以较小的电量损失换来了输沙量的大幅度增加,水沙调控效果显著,推荐为最优方案。研究成果量化了水沙调控效果和各目标间的转化规律,为开展黄河上游水沙调控提供了决策依据,具有重要的应用价值和实际指导意义。     

基于势流理论和OpenFOAM的耦合模型对多向不规则波浪的模拟

基于势流理论的数值水池可以快速计算波浪的传播及其对建筑物的作用,但是势流理论是基于波浪的无黏性假设的,而在工程中,通常需要在固体边界及波浪破碎的区域考虑黏性效应。针对基于求解Navier-Stokes方程的黏性水池计算量较大、速度较慢的缺点,采用耦合的方法模拟多向不规则波浪的传播,即在外域通过基于势流理论的数值水池产生多向不规则波浪,内域采用求解Navier-Stokes方程和流体体积法(VOF方法)对自由表面进行追踪,通过外域所提供的边界波浪,内域计算可以在较小区域进行计算,从而达到减少计算量、提高计算效率的目的。