A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Continuous air rate measurement in flotation cells: Some fundamental considerations

A robust and reliable sensor to measure gas (air) superficial velocity (J_g) continuously in flotation systems is introduced. It is based on the sampling of bubbles by buoyancy with the accumulating air allowed to exit through an orifice. At steady state, pressure drop is measured and related to the J_g by prior calibration. The continuous device is readily automated and extended to a multi-unit set-up. The sensor and data collections are described. The governing gas flow equation and models of the dynamic response to air flow rate set point change and fluctuations in froth depth are derived. Model predictions are confirmed against plant data. By taking a moving average, the J_g remains valid in the face of typical plant disturbances.     

Modèles géostatistiques de concentrations ou de débits le long des cours d'eau

Estimating concentrations or flow rates along a stream network requires specific models. Two classes of models, recently proposed in the literature, are generalized, to the intrinsic case in particular. We present a global construction by ‘streams’, i.e. on the whole set of paths between sources and outlet. Combining stationary or intrinsic one-dimensional random functions leads to stationary or intrinsic models on segments, with discontinuities at the forks. A construction from outlet to sources, leads to stationary or intrinsic models on each stream, without any discontinuity at the forks. The linear variogram is found as a particular case. The extension to the linear model of coregionalization is immediate, allowing a multivariate modelling of concentrations. To cite this article: C. de Fouquet, C. Bernard-Michel, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Water temperature behaviour in the River Loire since 1976 and 1881

Analysis of monthly mean river temperatures, recorded on an hourly basis in the middle reaches of the Loire since 1976, allows reconstruction by multiple linear regression of the annual, spring and summer water temperatures from equivalent information on air temperatures and river discharge. Since 1881, the average annual and summer temperatures of the Loire have risen by approximately 0.8?°C, this increase accelerating since the late 1980s due to the rise in air temperature and also to lower discharge rates. In addition, the thermal regime in the Orleans to Blois reach is considerably affected by the inflow of groundwater from the Calcaires de Beauce aquifer, as shown by the summer energy balance. To cite this article: F. Moatar, J. Gailhard, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Une approche innovante pour modéliser la biodégradation des composés organochlorés volatils en aquifères poreux

The goal of this study was to develop an innovative chloroethene biodegradation module based on biological, thermodynamical and mechanistic concepts. The biodegradation scheme was based on the postulate that in each part of an aquifer only one degradation mechanism is dominant: the one involving the most energetic electron acceptor. Thus, the selection of the active degradation mechanism was a function of the concentration of different electron acceptors. Modified Monod-type kinetics was used in order to take into account the possible influence of some compounds on the biodegradation of a given organic compound. The numerical model developed was applied to a simple test case, whose results are presented here. To cite this article: F. Nex et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

山区生态县区域协调发展的机制构建--以粤北始兴县为例

区域协调机制在不同类型地域和一种类型地域的不同的发展阶段是不同的。始兴县作为一个典型的山区生态县,工业进入加速发展时期,在此经济发展阶段的区域协调问题主要表现在:与外部区域经济、社会发展差距拉大,工业化与流域生态环境保护的矛盾已开始凸现,县政府协调区域发展的财政能力较低,区域协调机制不健全等。由此对始兴县的区域协调机制进行建构:建立健全多层次的区域协调机构;加大纵向和横向政府财政转移支付的力度;加强与相邻相关地区的协调;实施区域空间管治协调,保护城乡生态环境;科学合理选择产业,大力发展循环经济;全县推行绿色GDP考核等。     

大变形有限元法分析边坡稳定性

边坡稳定性分析的重要任务是确定边坡潜在滑面的位置及相应的安全系数,鉴于坡体位移可在现场监测中直接得到,提出边坡潜在滑面确定的位移判据,采用大变形有限元首先计算出边坡的位移场,然后在开挖面的不同高度作塑性区内的水平位移参考线,依次连接参考线上的位移突变点即得到边坡失稳的潜在滑面位置,分析滑面上的应力以及岩体抗剪强度即得到边坡的整体安全系数。     

东北漫岗黑土区春季冻融期浅沟侵蚀

浅沟侵蚀是东北漫岗黑土区农耕地上常见的水蚀类型,往往对坡耕地造成严重的破坏。2005年春季,通过对两个小流域浅沟侵蚀的调查测量,发现该区浅沟侵蚀相当严重,两流域分别形成浅沟14条、16条,浅沟总长度分别达3 269 m、2 146 m,浅沟密度分别为908 m/km2、766 m/km2,侵蚀深度分别为0.17 mm、0.16 mm,侵蚀模数分别达181.8 t/km2、173.6 t/km2。2005年春季两流域浅沟侵蚀期的径流深分别是6.8 mm、7.7 mm。分析表明,研究区在春季表层土壤解冻、地表裸露和存在季节性冻土层的条件下,春季融雪及强降水易造成强烈的浅沟侵蚀。在分布上,浅沟一般位于坡面的中下部,而且多发育在瓦背状坡面的集流水路上。另外,耕作措施对浅沟的形成和发展也有重要影响。     

灌丛对川西北高寒草甸土壤资源的影响

以川西北高原红原县为研究区,用方格取样法,在相邻的高寒灌丛草地和高寒草甸样地中分别随机取0~20 cm土样50个,并分析了这些土样的土壤性状。利用SPSS(11.0)软件对实验数据进行了统计、分析和比较,研究了两个样地的各种土壤养分的平均含量、空间异质性和相关关系。结果表明,草甸样地的粘粒含量、Ptotal、Ntotal、ORG、Pavail、Navail、Kavail的含量都高于灌丛样地,且两样地速效养分差异极显著,但草甸样地土壤的ORG、Navail、Kavail的变异系数(CV)却明显小于灌丛样地,特别是Kavail的CV值,灌丛样地比草甸样地高出了53.37%;相关分析还表明,相对于草甸,灌丛样地中各养分元素之间的相关性明显增强。说明灌丛对高寒草甸土壤资源的异质性有明显的影响,其存在降低了草甸土壤养分的均值含量并增强了土壤养分的变异性和侵蚀潜力,不利于高寒草甸土壤养分的保持。     

山地灾害研究的发展态势与任务

泥石流、滑坡等山地灾害已成为世界各国十分关注的自然灾害问题。据最近几年的国际学术会议,泥石流、滑坡研究的前沿领域是：泥石流、滑坡活动的地带性与全球气候变化的规律；泥石流、滑坡起动机理、动力学模型；泥石流、滑坡等山地灾害风险分析、发生时间预报；成灾机理与减灾防灾关键技术。国内研究较晚,但发展很快。经过近50 a的研究,涉及上述诸多研究颁域。但研究不深,还存在不少差距。据国内外研究态势,针对山地所实际,提出了在泥石流、滑坡理论创新和防治关键技术等研究方面12条任务。