5·12汶川地震地表破裂基本参数的再论证及其构造内涵分析

地震地表破裂基本参数是反演地震破裂过程的基本约束条件和预测其他活动断层地震危险性不可缺少的物理量.以野外地表破裂带重要观测点全站仪或差分GPS仪实测数据为基础,结合高分辨率遥感资料解译、先存断层陡坎构造地貌标志的识别、以及地形测绘资料的考证等,重新论证了5·12汶川地震地表破裂带展布样式、长度、最大同震位移值等基本参数.结果表明,地震地表破裂带长度可达240 km,最大垂直位移为6.5±0.5 m,最大右旋走滑位移4.9 m,基于倾角向下变缓逆断层模型推测汶川地震在龙门山推覆构造带中段产生了最大~7 m的地壳缩短量,说明青藏高原东缘横向逆断层为将高原内部东向水平运动转换为高原隆升的转换构造,这一研究结果有助于深化认识青藏高原东缘隆升机理.     

Determination of background concentrations of hydrochemical parameters and water quality assessment in the Akhuryan River Basin (Armenia)

The determination of background values of hydrochemical parameters, to distinguish between natural concentration and anthropogenically-influenced concentrations, is highly relevant. In presented study, to estimate the background values of hydrochemical parameters in Akhuryan River Basin, log-normal probability functions on the hydrochemical parameters concentrations was applied. The study is carried out on the basis of hydrochemical data of surface water quality monitoring for the period of 2010–2013. This study highlights the usefulness of application of site-specific background concentrations for the evaluation, interpretation of surface water quality and for determination of pollution sources.     

关中地区3次中小地震前后的重力变化

采用拟稳平差方法对关中地区近20 年流动重力观测资料重新进行了处理,并结合其它观测资料和研究结果,对区域内重力场变化过程、3次中小地震前后重力场变化机理、构造活动以及区内外地震间的关系等进行了较深入地分析和研究。     

团体粒子群与最大能量串行融合算法转换波静校正

估计转换波的静校正量是一个复杂的非线性问题,常规的线性静校正方法无法取得好的效果.粒子群算法是一种很好的非线性全局最优化方法,但其缺点是"早熟"现象严重.最大能量法是一种常规求取静校正量的方法,局部寻优能力强且收敛速度快是其优点,但是当地震记录含有大的静校正量时易收敛于局部极值.本文在标准粒子群算法的基础上发展出了一种改进的粒子群算法:团体粒子群算法.并且通过对Rastrigin函数的寻优实验证明了其全局寻优能力优于标准粒子群算法.同时为了解决转换波静校正问题串行融合了团体粒子群算法和最大能量法.最后,建立了含一个水平反射层的模型并合成地震记录,加入随机值作为检波点静校正量.对合成的地震数据分别利用团体粒子群和最大能量的串行融合算法、标准粒子群算法和最大能量法求取静校正量并进行静校正.结果证明串行融合算法得到的静校正量与理论值误差很小,静校正后的叠加剖面连续性较好.     

A new Likelihood Ratio for supervised classification of fully polarimetric SAR data: An application for sea ice type mapping

One of the potential applications of polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data is the classification of land cover, such as forest canopies, vegetation, sea ice types, and urban areas. In contrast to single or dual polarized SAR systems, full polarimetric SAR systems provide more information about the physical and geometrical properties of the imaged area. This paper proposes a new Bayes risk function which can be minimized to obtain a Likelihood Ratio (LR) for the supervised classification of polarimetric SAR data. The derived Bayes risk function is based on the complex Wishart distribution. Furthermore, a new spatial criterion is incorporated with the LR classification process to produce more homogeneous classes. The application for Arctic sea ice mapping shows that the LR and the proposed spatial criterion are able to provide promising classification results. Comparison with classification results based on the Wishart classifier, the Wishart Likelihood Ratio Test Statistic (WLRTS) proposed by Conradsen et al. (2003) and the Expectation Maximization with Probabilistic Label Relaxation (EMPLR) algorithm are presented. High overall classification accuracy of selected study areas which reaches 97.8% using the LR is obtained. Combining the derived spatial criterion with the LR can improve the overall classification accuracy to reach 99.9%. In this study, fully polarimetric C-band RADARSAT-2 data collected over Franklin Bay, Canadian Arctic, is used.     

Characterizing wetland dynamics: a post-classification change detection analysis of the East Kolkata Wetlands using open source satellite data

The East Kolkata Wetlands is a unique resource recovery system. The Ramsar Convention recognized it as a ‘Wetland of International Importance’ in August 2002. However, the long-term resource exploitation and land use changes in the dynamic ecosystem have resulted in non-linear environmental responses. This is an attempt using open source remote sensing datasets to capture the spatio-temporal transformation of the wetland resulting from various anthropogenic activities. Landsat MSS and TM imageries of 1973, 1980, 1989, 2001 and 2010 were classified using Maximum Likelihood Classifier to monitor the wetland change; however, to study wetland dynamics, the post-classification wetland change detection maps have been generated for two temporal phases, i.e. 1973–1989 and 1989–2010. This study finds that the area under wetlands has reduced comprehensively in the past 40 years due to the conversion of wetlands into various other uses such as urban expansion of the Kolkata metropolitan city.     

青藏高原东北部共和盆地风成沉积地球化学特征及其揭示的气候变化

通过对共和盆地东部风成沉积的地球化学分析,并结合14C和OSL年代,重建了区域末次盛冰期以来气候变化过程。21 ka BP之前气候寒冷偏湿,21～15.82 ka BP为末次盛冰期(LastGlacial Maximum,LGM),气候极为寒冷干燥;15.82～9.5 ka BP气候转暖且偏干,其中14.5～13.6ka BP和11.9～9.5 ka BP气候明显冷干,分别为老仙女木时期(Oldest Dryas,OD)和新仙女木时期(Younger Dryas,YD),而15.82～14.5 ka BP和13.6～11.9 ka BP(BФlling-AllerФd暖期,B/A)相对温暖;9.5～7.2 ka BP暖湿程度明显提高,7.2～5.1 ka BP气候波动频繁,相对冷干和相对暖湿多次更替。5.1～2.7 ka BP暖湿程度基本稳定,之后气候趋于寒冷但湿度明显较大。这些气候变化过程与青藏高原大量的古气候信息记录具有良好的一致性,表明共和盆地气候变化与青藏高原气候变化的高度一致性。     

A note of caution when interpreting parameters of the distribution of excesses

In climatology and hydrology, univariate Extreme Value Theory has become a powerful tool to model the distribution of extreme events. The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is routinely applied to model excesses in space or time by letting the two GPD parameters depend on appropriate covariates. Two possible pitfalls of this strategy are the modeling and the interpretation of the scale and shape GPD parameters estimates which are often and incorrectly viewed as independent variables. In this note we first recall a statistical technique that makes the GPD estimates less correlated within a Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation approach. In a second step we propose novel reparametrizations for two method-of-moments particularly popular in hydrology: the Probability Weighted Moment (PWM) method and its generalized version (GPWM). Finally these three inference methods (ML, PWM and GPWM) are compared and discussed with respect to the issue of correlations.     

基于居民点密度的人口密度空间化

提出了一种基于居民点密度的人口密度空间化方法。以江苏省人口数据空间化为例,在采用核密度估计法得到江苏省镇(乡、街道)居民点密度后,运用基于居民点密度的人口密度空间化计算公式获得江苏省1 000m×1 000m的人口密度格网图,结果表明:江苏省人口分布的热点地区正是在建的三大都市圈(苏锡常都市圈、南京都市圈和徐州都市圈),其中苏锡常都市圈的人口分布呈现各向异性,而南京和徐州都市圈的人口分布则表现为各向同性;人口密度不仅取决于居民点密度,还与平均每个居民点的人口数密切相关,居民点密度大的区域的人口密度不一定大,居民点密度小的区域的人口密度也不一定小。     

Pre- and post-drill comparison of the Mount Elbert gas hydrate prospect, Alaska North Slope

In 2006, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) completed a detailed analysis and interpretation of available 2-D and 3-D seismic data, along with seismic modeling and correlation with specially processed downhole well log data for identifying potential gas hydrate accumulations on the North Slope of Alaska. A methodology was developed for identifying sub-permafrost gas hydrate prospects within the gas hydrate stability zone in the Milne Point area. The study revealed a total of 14 gas hydrate prospects in this area.In order to validate the gas hydrate prospecting protocol of the USGS and to acquire critical reservoir data needed to develop a longer-term production testing program, a stratigraphic test well was drilled at the Mount Elbert prospect in the Milne Point area in early 2007. The drilling confirmed the presence of two prominent gas-hydrate-bearing units in the Mount Elbert prospect, and high quality well logs and core data were acquired. The post-drill results indicate pre-drill predictions of the reservoir thickness and the gas-hydrate saturations based on seismic and existing well data were 90% accurate for the upper unit (hydrate unit D) and 70% accurate for the lower unit (hydrate unit C), confirming the validity of the USGS approach to gas hydrate prospecting. The Mount Elbert prospect is the first gas hydrate accumulation on the North Slope of Alaska identified primarily on the basis of seismic attribute analysis and specially processed downhole log data. Post-drill well log data enabled a better constraint of the elastic model and the development of an improved approach to the gas hydrate prospecting using seismic attributes.