Misspecification of extreme rainfall population statistics and frequency inference due to measurement bias and variability

Statistical analysis of rainfall extremes is mostly based on the assumption of error-free data, despite common knowledge about the widespread incidence of precipitation measurement bias and variability. The objective of this study is primarily to investigate the impact of measurement bias and variability in statistical classification and quantile estimates of rainfall extremes. A theoretical framework is presented for the analysis of moment coefficients and probability distributions for rainfall extremes corrupted by measurement bias and variability. Furthermore, methods are outlined for practical statistical analysis of error-corrupted rainfall extremes, based on maximum likelihood. Frequency inference and testing for the presence of measurement variability are the main topics. Modelling of data series is undertaken in order to exemplify the statistical assessment and the real-life impact of measurement error.It is shown that: (a) unaccounted measurement error may potentially cause a considerable degree of misspecification about the conventional moment and L-moment coefficients of variation, and the conventional moments of skewness and kurtosis; (b) the presence of measurement variability alone can cause significant and nonlinear quantile bias which further strongly increases with the additional presence of measurement bias; and (c) maximum likelihood estimation provides a general and efficient tool for assessing measurement error in extreme rainfall frequency analysis.     

腾格里沙漠南缘末次冰盛期以来沙漠演化与气候变化

位于现代季风区边缘的沙漠黄土边界带,具有高度的不稳定性,末次冰盛期以来历经多次北进南退移动和暖湿、冷干变化。依据对腾格里沙漠南缘白岩沟剖面的黄土古土壤风成砂序列的年代测定,建立了腾格里沙漠南缘末次冰盛期以来沙漠演化的时间序列,并结合剖面各地层的粒度分析、色度分析和CaCO3分析结果,认为末次冰盛期该区主要经历了两次沙漠强烈扩张、两次退缩以及一次小幅度扩张的阶段。而全球变化所导致的东亚冬、夏季风变化是沙漠正、逆过程演变的主要驱动因子。     

Elemental δ13C at Allen's Cave,Nullarbor Plain,Australia: assessing post‐depositional disturbance and reconstructing past environments

The degree to which post‐depositional disturbance can be assessed in archaeological sequences is critical for the development of robust chronologies for such deposits. A common approach is the identification of conjoined artefacts distributed through the sequence as a measure of disturbance following deposition, although this method is relatively labour intensive and does not provide a continuous record of disturbance through the entire sequence. Here we present δ¹³C values for different size fractions (<125 and >125 µm) of chemically resistant charcoal distributed through a sedimentary profile at Allen's Cave, South Australia. The curves generated from both size fractions parallel one another, indicating minimal disturbance through the entire profile and providing greater confidence in the luminescence and radiocarbon chronologies reported previously for the site. In addition, the elemental δ¹³C values provide an indication of greater aridity (compared with present) persisting in this area from ca. 45 to 12 ka, consistent with other proxy records. The onset of the Holocene is marked by a shift to wetter conditions, probably as a result of post‐glacial marine transgression and closer proximity to the coastline. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

利用卷积神经网络开展偏振雷达定量降水估测研究

利用偏振升级改造后的广州新一代天气雷达（CINRAD/SAD）水平反射率ZH、差分传播相移率KDP、差分反射率因子ZDR和广东佛山219个地面气象自动站雨量数据,形成不同偏振量组合的8个数据集。基于卷积神经网络（CNN）,建立雷达定量降水估测网络架构QPEnet, 并将该架构用于雷达定量降水估测（QPE）,评估结果表明：数据集通道数N的增加可降低QPEnet的定量降雨估测的均方根误差（RMSE）,并提高相关系数（CORR）;对于由ZH形成的数据集Z、Z_1~3 km和Z_6 min,随着通道数N的增加,数据集Z、Z_1~3 km和Z_6 min的性能逐步得到提高,数据集Z_1~3 km和Z_6 min的均方根误差（RMSE）分别是4.71和3.78,比数值集Z分别降低了1.3%和18.7%;数据集Z_1~3 km和Z_6 min的CORR分别是0.82和0.88,比数据集Z分别提高了2.5%和10.0%;对于ZH、KDP和ZDR偏振量组成的数据集里面,数据集Z_ZDR_KDP的拟合性能最好,RMSE为3.97,比数据集Z的RMSE降低了14.6%,CORR是0.86,比数据集Z提高了7.5%;分别对0.6～5 mm、5～10 mm、10～20 mm、20～30 mm、30～40 mm、40～50 mm和50 mm以上的7个降水量级的均方根误差（RMSE）、平均偏差比（MBR）、平均误差（AE）和相对误差（RE）等的统计结果表明,数据集Z_6 min降雨精度最高。     

福州盆地断层擦痕构造解析及其应力场反演

本文通过野外测量众多的断层擦痕,经过计算机反演应力场,并结合地质资料分析,认为本区自中生代末至第四纪存在着四期构造应力场     

青海湖东岸末次冰期冰盛期和早全新世沙漠范围重建

基于野外沉积物调查、已报道的风成沉积物年代和重建的湖泊水位波动曲线,初步绘制了末次冰期冰盛期和全新世早期青海湖东岸的沙漠范围。初步认为,末次冰期冰盛期时青海湖大幅度萎缩,湖底沉积物暴露并遭受风蚀,在偏西风的搬运下,近岸粗颗粒砂堆积在日月山西侧和倒淌河河谷,形成流动沙丘,细颗粒沉积物被向东搬运沉积至河湟谷地和黄土高原。倒淌河源头的沙丘最晚是在末次冰期盛冰期(23~16ka BP)沙漠扩张时形成并残留至今的;青海湖东部日月山西侧山麓地带和倒淌河河谷中、晚全新世黄土、古土壤下部普遍沉积的风成砂是末次冰期冰盛期和全新世早期(11~9 ka BP)青海湖东岸地区大范围沙化的证据。     

Rapid vertical sampling in stably stratified turbulent shear flows

A new method for obtaining instantaneous vertical profiles of two components of velocity and temperature in thermally stratified turbulent shear flows is presented. In this report, the design and construction of the traversing system will be discussed and results to date will be presented. The method is based on rapid vertical sampling whereby probe sensors are moved vertically at a high speed such that the measurement is approximately instantaneous. The system is designed to collect many measurements for the calculation of statistics such as vertical wave number spectra, mean square vertical gradients, and Thorpe scales. Results are presented for vertical profiles of temperature and compared to vertical profiles measured by single-point Eulerian time averages. The quality of the vertical profiles is found to be good over many profiles. Some comparisons are made between vertical measurements and standard single-point Eulerian measurements for three cases of stably stratified turbulent shear flow in which the initial microscale Reynolds number, Re_λ≈30. In case 1, the mean conditions are characterized by a gradient Richardson number, Ri_g=0.015, for which the flow is “unstable”, meaning the spatially evolving turbulent kinetic energy (E_k) grows. In case 2, Ri_g=0.095, for which the evolving turbulent kinetic energy is almost constant. In case 3, the flow is highly stable, where Ri_g=0.25 and E_k decays with spatial evolution. The measurements indicate anisotropy in the small scales for all cases. In particular, it is found that the ratio grows initially to a maximum and then decays with further evolution. Maximum Thorpe displacements are measured and compared to single-point measures of the vertical scales. It is found that vertical length scales derived from single-point measurements, such as the Ozmidov scale, L_O=(ε/N³)^1/2 and the overturn scale, L_t=θ′/(dT/dz), do not represent well the wide range of overturning scales which are actually present in the turbulence.     

Simulations of Hydrological Cycle Changes Between the LGM and the Present Day over China

Based on the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data in 1983–2006,it is found that there is a high value center of high cloud amount over the Tibetan Plateau (TP),while there is a high value center of middle cloud amount over the Sichuan Basin extending to the coastal area of southeastern China along the same latitude,and a low one over the TP.The present day (PD) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climates are simulated by using the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3) nested with a regio...     

基于最大似然属性和拉普拉斯金字塔的断面波增强方法建立

针对在绕射波和回转波的干扰下,断面波识别度较低的问题,本文结合最大似然属性方法和拉普拉斯金字塔算法,提出了一种有效提高断面波识别度的方法.首先通过最大似然属性对三维数据体进行扫描,并计算数据体采样点之间的相似性,以获得工区内精确断层的位置,进而利用拉普拉斯金字塔算法进行断面波能量增强,即在构造拉普拉斯金字塔的过程中加入...     

二氧化碳地质封存中的储存容量评估：问题和研究进展

二氧化碳地质封存被认为是一项非常有潜力的CO₂减排技术。其中对CO₂地质储存能力的评估可作为某一国家、某一区域或某一具体储层是否适合CO₂地质封存开展的判断依据之一。但目前的研究结果表明,对CO₂地质储存容量的评估并不是一个简单而直接的过程。介绍了由碳封存领导人论坛（CSFL）提出的用于不可采煤层、油气储层和深部咸水含水层中CO₂储存容量评估的方法。总结了影响CO₂地质储存容量评估的主要因素,为我国在CO₂地质封存领域研究的广泛合作提出了建议,有助于推动该技术在中国的深入开展。