Statistical estimation of the relative efficiency of natural attenuation mechanisms in contaminated aquifers

Using monitored natural attenuation is an increasingly popular strategy for dealing with contaminated aquifers. This paper provides a statistical methodology for the estimation of the relative efficiency of natural attenuation mechanisms. The methodology provides estimates, with associated measures of uncertainty, of the relative efficiency of four types of bio-degradation (oxidation using oxygen as the electron-acceptor, denitrification, iron reduction and sulfate reduction). A data set from Trecate, Italy, is analysed using the methodology. The analysis shows that sulfate is the main cause of hydrocarbon removal on this site. It is also seen that oxidation using oxygen seems to be more preferential than the other reactions, in the sense that this reaction is relatively more efficient than other reactions at locations where the hydrocarbon concentration is low.     

青南高原树轮年表的建立及与气候要素的关系

根据青海南部曲麻莱、治多地区树木年轮样本,建立了青海南部高原(下称青南高原)树木年轮年表序列,系统地与所在地区气候资料进行了综合分析。通过响应函数,计算得出该年表对青南高原春季(4～6月)的最高温度和蒸发量的反映更为敏感。并重建了青南高原春季最高温度序列。     

基于GIS系统和最大熵谱原理的降水周期分析方法

降水预测分析中经常遇到确定降水周期的问题。文章介绍了将具有分辨率高等特点的最大熵谱原理(MEM)应用在降水周期分析中的方法，并将其做成程序模型镶嵌于GIS二次开发系统中。通过两者的结合从而实现模型的连接和分析的结果与地理空间数据的综合。周期分析过程只需在系统界面中选取某一降水测站，GIS系统便可以应用MEM模型计算出该测站所辖地区的降水周期规律。     

台湾集集和华北大同地震序列的定量模型分析

介绍了传染型余震序列(ETAS)模型的基本原理和发展概况，并利用该模型分析了1999年开始的台湾集集地震序列(主震Ms7．6)和1989年开始的大同地震序列(主震为Ms5．7)。通过分析计算，得到了二个序列的ETAS参数向量，并结合各自的孕震环境和机制分析了二个地震序列的异同和序列衰减规律。     

Depth Estimation from Gravity Data Using the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) and the Multi Taper Method (MTM)

The depth determination from the gravity data in frequency domain is carried out using the classical fast Fourier transform (FFT) method utilizing scaling properties of ensemble of anomalous source. The problem of calculating power spectrum from the FFT is well described in the literature. Here, the application of other high-resolution methods of power spectrum calculation, such as maximum entropy method (MEM) and multi-taper method (MTM) are explored to estimate depth to anomalous sources. At the outset, the FFT, the MEM and the MTM are tested on synthetic gravity data, generated for different types of synthetic models and then all these methods are applied to the field gravity data of the Bengal basin. The MTM with scaling is found to be superior for providing the detailed subsurface information rather than the MEM and the FFT methods in the case of synthetic as well as field examples.     

Phosphate sorption desorption characteristics of some ferruginous soils of tropical region in Eastern India

Phosphate sorption and desorption experiments were conducted with four ferruginous soils (alfisols) of Eastern India, in view of the low native phosphate concentrations in tropical Indian soils. From the P-isotherm curve, standard P requirement (SPR) of the soils was determined. Phosphate sorption data were fitted to both Langmuir and Freundlich equations and mean sorption maximum values obtained for the different soil series were in the decreasing order as Matimahal > Anandapur > Mrigindih > Kashipur. The fraction of added P sorbed followed the same trend as SPR, P sorption maximum (P_max), phosphate affinity constant (K), maximum phosphate buffering capacity (MPBC), Freundlich constant K′ and phosphate desorption values. Phosphate sorption maximum was significantly correlated with MPBC, Freundlich 1/n, SPR, clay and different forms of Fe and Al. The value of K (bonding energy) was significantly correlated with MPBC, Freundlich K′ and pyrophosphate extractable Fe and Al. The MPBC was significantly correlated with Freundlich K′, Freundlich constant 1/n, clay, oxalate and dithionite extractable, amorphous and crystalline form of Fe and Al. Freundlich K′ was significantly correlated with Freundlich 1/n, pH_water, clay, dithionite extractable and crystalline form of Fe and Al. The results suggested that the soils having higher amount of extractable and reactive Fe and Al shared higher P sorbtion capacity and such soils may need higher levels of P application     

The use of scale recursive estimation for short term quantitative precipitation forecast

Scale recursive estimation (SRE) is adopted for short term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The precipitation field is modelled using a lognormal random cascade, well suited to properly represent the scaling properties of rainfall fields. To estimate the random cascade parameters, scale recursive maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is carried out by the iterative expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. To illustrate the potentiality of the SRE, forecast of a synthetically generated rainfall time series is shown. Adaptive estimation of the process parameters is carried out and precipitation forecasts are issued. The forecasts from the SRE are compared with those from standard ARMA models, showing a good performance. The SRE is then adopted for forecasting of an observed half hourly precipitation series for a two day storm event in northern Italy. The SRE provides good performance and it can therefore be adopted as a tool for short term QPF.     

Identification of critical ground motions for seismic performance assessment of structures

A method is established to identify critical earthquake ground motions that are to be used in physical testing or subsequent advanced computational studies to enable seismic performance to be assessed. The ground motion identification procedure consists of: choosing a suitable suite of ground motions and an appropriate intensity measure; selecting a computational tool and modelling the structure accordingly; performing Incremental Dynamic Analysis on a non‐linear model of the structure; interpreting these results into 50th (median) and 90th percentile performance bounds; and identifying the critical ground motions that are close to these defining probabilistic curves at ground motion intensities corresponding to the design basis earthquake and the maximum considered earthquake. An illustrative example of the procedure is given for a reinforced concrete highway bridge pier designed to New Zealand specifications. Pseudodynamic tests and finite element based time history analyses are performed on the pier using three earthquake ground motions identified as: (i) a Design Basis Earthquake (10% probability in 50 years) with 90 percent confidence of non‐exceedance; (ii) a Maximum Considered Event (2% probability in 50 years) representing a median response; and (iii) a Maximum Considered Event representing 90 percent confidence of non‐exceedance. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

序贯平差抗差估计

推导了参数平差模型序贯平差在参数可变情形下的Ｍ－Ｍ抗差及Ｍ－ＬＳ抗差解式,讨论了相应的影响函数及验后协方差。固定参数序贯平差抗差解为其特例。模拟计算表明,抗差序贯平差能有效地抵制粗差干扰。     

方差分量的极大验后估计

由概括函数模型出发,导出了适应于所有平差模型的方差分量的极大验后估计,这种估计实际上是先验方差与样本方差的凸组合。文中还给出了一个简单的数例,说明这种方法的可行性。