U_(37)~K指标在南海末次盛冰期表层海水古温度研究中的应用

根据1998年6~9月采集于南海海域沉积岩芯中的浮游有孔虫氧、碳同位素和SiO2、CaCO3地球化学地层序列,标定了南海的年代框架,并应用UK 37指标重建了南海南、北部末次盛冰期以来表层海水的古温度。结果显示:南海南部冰后期和末次盛冰期时UK 37海水表层估温分别为24.5~27.4℃和23.8~25.3℃,平均水温分别为26.3℃和24.3℃。南海北部冰后期和末次盛冰期时UK 37海水表层估温分别为23.3~26.9℃和22.2~23.8℃,平均水温分别为26.6℃和22.8℃。南海北部温差比南部大,也比同一纬度的其它观察点大得多,充分表明南海对气候变化响应的敏感程度远大于开放性大洋,同时也进一步证实了边缘海对于冰期旋回的环境信号具有放大效应。     

Ice stream influence on West Greenland Ice Sheet dynamics during the Last Glacial Maximum

This paper investigates the processes governing bedrock bedform evolution in ice sheet and ice stream areas in central West Greenland, and explores the evidence for a cross‐shelf ice stream at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). To the east of Sisimiut the formation of streamlined bedforms with high elongation ratios and high bedform density has been controlled by geological structure and topography in slow‐flowing ice sheet areas. At the coast, the effects of regional flow convergence, caused by coastal fjord orientation, routed ice into the Sisimiut/Itilleq area where it formed an ice stream onset zone. This funnelled ice into an offshore trough (Holsteinsborg Dyb), resulting in a southwesterly regional ice flow direction and the formation of a topographically routed ice stream (Holsteinsborg Isbrae). To the south of this, striae and bedform evidence show that local valley glaciers initially flowed east to west across the coast, but were later redirected by the Itilleq Fjord ice which turned southwestward due to diffluent flow and deflection by Holsteinsborg Isbrae. Roches moutonnées in this area have low elongation ratios and high bedform density, but do not provide unequivocal support for ice streaming, as they are a product of both bedrock structure and changes in ice flow direction, rather than enhanced flow velocities. Cosmogenic surface exposure ages limit maximum ice sheet surface elevation to ca. 755–810 m above sea level in this region. Such ice thickness enabled Holsteinsborg Isbrae to reach the mid/outer continental shelf during the LGM, and to contribute to the formation of a trough mouth fan and the Outer Hellefisk moraines. Initial deglaciation across this region was driven by rising sea level and increasing air temperatures prior to the Bølling Interstadial at ca. 14.5 cal. ka BP. Between 12 and 10 cal. ka BP both increased air and ocean temperatures post the Younger Dryas, and peak sea‐level rise up to the marine limit, caused accelerated thinning and marginal retreat through calving, although dating evidence suggests ice streams remained along the inner shelf/coast boundary until at least ca. 10 cal. ka BP, their longevity maintained by increased ice thickness and ice discharge. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New age constraints for the maximum extent of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (NW sector)

This paper presents the first terrestrial age constraints from the outer continental shelf for the maximum extent of the NW sector of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet. Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be ages from eight glacially transported boulders on the island of North Rona show that the Late Devensian (Late Weichselian) British–Irish Ice Sheet overrode the island at its maximal stage and retreated c. 25 ka BP. These new dates, supported by other geological evidence, indicate that the north‐western part of the ice sheet was most extensive between 27 and 25 ka BP, reaching the outer continental shelf during the global eustatic sea‐level minimum at the Last Glacial Maximum. Copyright © 2012 British Geological Survey/Natural Environment Research Council copyright 2012. Reproduced with the permission of BGS/NERC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 airborne infection transmission risk in public buses

Public transport environments are thought to play a key role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide. Indeed, high crowding indexes (i.e. high numbers of people relative to the vehicle size), inadequate clean air supply, and frequent extended exposure durations make transport environments potential hotspots for transmission of respiratory infections. During the COVID-19 pandemic, generic mitigation measures (e.g. physical distancing) have been applied without also considering the airborne transmission route. This is due to the lack of quantified data about airborne contagion risk in transport environments.In this study, we apply a novel combination of close proximity and room-scale risk assessment approaches for people sharing public transport environments to predict their contagion risk due to SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infection. In particular, the individual infection risk of susceptible subjects and the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 (expressed through the reproduction number) are evaluated for two types of buses, differing in terms of exposure time and crowding index: urban and long-distance buses. Infection risk and reproduction number are calculated for different scenarios as a function of the ventilation rates (both measured and estimated according to standards), crowding indexes, and travel times. The results show that for urban buses, the close proximity contribution significantly affects the maximum occupancy to maintain a reproductive number of <1. In particular, full occupancy of the bus would be permitted only for an infected subject breathing, whereas for an infected subject speaking, masking would be required. For long-distance buses, full occupancy of the bus can be maintained only if specific mitigation solutions are simultaneously applied. For example, for an infected person speaking for 1 h, appropriate filtration of the recirculated air and simultaneous use of FFP2 masks would permit full occupancy of the bus for a period of almost 8 h. Otherwise, a high percentage of immunized persons (>80%) would be needed.     

Timing and pace of ice-sheet withdrawal across the marine–terrestrial transition west of Ireland during the last glaciation

Understanding the pace and drivers of marine-based ice-sheet retreat relies upon the integration of numerical ice-sheet models with observations from contemporary polar ice sheets and well-constrained palaeo-glaciological reconstructions. This paper provides a reconstruction of the retreat of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) from the Atlantic shelf west of Ireland during and following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). It uses marine-geophysical data and sediment cores dated by radiocarbon, combined with terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide and optically stimulated luminescence dating of onshore ice-marginal landforms, to reconstruct the timing and rate of ice-sheet retreat from the continental shelf and across the adjoining coastline of Ireland, thus including the switch from a marine- to a terrestrially-based ice-sheet margin. Seafloor bathymetric data in the form of moraines and grounding-zone wedges on the continental shelf record an extensive ice sheet west of Ireland during the LGM which advanced to the outer shelf. This interpretation is supported by the presence of dated subglacial tills and overridden glacimarine sediments from across the Porcupine Bank, a westwards extension of the Irish continental shelf. The ice sheet was grounded on the outer shelf at ~26.8 ka cal bp with initial retreat underway by 25.9 ka cal bp. Retreat was not a continuous process but was punctuated by marginal oscillations until ~24.3 ka cal bp. The ice sheet thereafter retreated to the mid-shelf where it formed a large grounding-zone complex at ~23.7 ka cal bp. This retreat occurred in a glacimarine environment. The Aran Islands on the inner continental shelf were ice-free by ~19.5 ka bp and the ice sheet had become largely terrestrially based by 17.3 ka bp. This suggests that the Aran Islands acted to stabilize and slow overall ice-sheet retreat once the BIIS margin had reached the inner shelf. Our results constrain the timing of initial retreat of the BIIS from the outer shelf west of Ireland to the period of minimum global eustatic sea level. Initial retreat was driven, at least in part, by glacio-isostatically induced, high relative sea level. Net rates of ice-sheet retreat across the shelf were slow (62–19 m a⁻¹) and reduced (8 m a⁻¹) as the ice sheet vacated the inner shelf and moved onshore. A picture therefore emerges of an extensive BIIS on the Atlantic shelf west of Ireland, in which early, oscillatory retreat was followed by slow episodic retreat which decelerated further as the ice margin became terrestrially based. More broadly, this demonstrates the importance of localized controls, in particular bed topography, on modulating the retreat of marine-based sectors of ice sheets.     

1964-2013年大连地区暴雨气候特征及变化规律

利用1964—2013年大连地区6个气象站逐日降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall和 Yamamoto检验及最大熵谱分析等方法,对大连地区暴雨的气候特征及变化规律进行分析。结果表明：大连地区3—12月均可出现暴雨,72.7％的暴雨出现在7—8月,7月暴雨出现最多,8月上旬是暴雨出现最集中的时期。4—8月各月暴雨日数均呈上升趋势,且4月暴雨日数上升最明显,8月次之,至9月暴雨日数呈下降趋势。大连地区各站年平均暴雨日数为1.8—2.8 d,暴雨日数分布从大连西北内陆向东南沿海地区逐渐增多,暴雨日数大值中心在庄河（2.8 d）。各站年暴雨日数均呈上升趋势,大连北部普兰店、东部长海和西南部旅顺地区年暴雨日数呈显著上升趋势,其他地区年暴雨日数上升趋势较弱。近50 a来,大连地区暴雨初日有所提前,暴雨终日变化不明显。年暴雨日数、暴雨强度和暴雨贡献率均呈不显著的上升趋势,且均从2003年以来增加明显,均有2.0—3.0 a的周期振荡;此外,年暴雨日数、暴雨强度和暴雨贡献率分别存在准12.5 a、准5.0 a和准16.7 a的振荡周期,仅年暴雨贡献率在1977年和1978年发生显著突变。     

RBF神经网络在雷达定量估测降水中的应用研究

利用重庆气象局CINRAD/SA气象雷达降水回波资料和相应地区的地面雨量站资料,基于径向基函数神经网络,建立雷达定量估测降水模型,将其用于地面降水估测。作为比较,同时以变分法得到的Z-R关系式估测所得降水。经二者对比试验结果表明:建立的雷达定量估测降水模型的估测精度和稳定性要明显优于Z-R关系式,能较好地反映降雨的真实情况。