Stress state in the Cuu Long and Nam Con Son basins, offshore Vietnam

The results presented in this paper are the first published estimates of the complete stress tensor in the Cuu Long and Nam Con Son basins, offshore Vietnam. We analysed in situ stress and pore pressure fields in the sedimentary formations using data from petroleum exploration and production wells to evaluate the stress state in these basins. The data were obtained from the seafloor to 4300 m burial depth and include both hydrostatic and overpressured sections. Minimum horizontal stresses were obtained from extended leak-off tests and mini-fracture tests. Maximum horizontal stresses were estimated from drilling-induced fracture parameters and borehole breakout widths in twelve wells using rock properties measured in the laboratory or estimated empirically from wireline logs. Seven data points are located in sediments, and seventeen data points in igneous basement rocks at depths greater than 3000 m.The estimated magnitudes of σ_H are 70-110% of the σ_v magnitudes. Considering the errors in the stress magnitude estimates, their relative magnitudes suggest that a borderline normal/strike-slip stress regime presently exists in normally pressured sequences of the Nam Con Son and Cuu Long basins. Of the twenty-four data points, twenty have effective stress ratios at a critical stress state for faulting on the assumption that there are faults present that are optimally oriented for failure with friction coefficients of ∼0.5. The results suggest that the stress state in these basins is generally critical.     

兰州邻区活断层潜在地震最大震级及其危险性评估

兰州附近的庄浪河断裂和白银白杨树沟断裂是对兰州市地震安全有一定影响的晚第四纪活动断裂,但沿断裂发生的中强破坏性地震较为复杂甚至不明确。如何评价西部地区此类断裂的最大潜在地震震级及其危险性是地震中长期预测和地震区划研究中较为重要的问题之一。本文借鉴闻学泽等(2007)对中国大陆东部中-弱活断层潜在地震最大震级评估的思路,建立了兰州地区最大地震震级Mmax与断层小区震级-频度关系参数at/b值之间的经验公式;并采用经验公式外推得到庄浪河断裂和白杨树沟断裂的震级上限Mu分别为MS6.9、6.3,进而评估了这两条断裂的地震平均复发间隔和发震概率。     

Reconstruction of paleocoastlines for the northwestern South China Sea since the Last Glacial Maximum

The range of relative sea level rise in the northwestern South China Sea since the Last Glacial Maximum was over 100 m. As a result, lowland regions including the Northeast Vietnam coast, Beibu Gulf, and South China coast experienced an evolution from land to sea. Based on the principle of reconstructing paleogeography and using recent digital elevation model, relative sea level curves, and sediment accumulation data, this paper presents a series of paleogeographic scenarios back to 20 cal. ka BP for the northwestern South China Sea. The scenarios demonstrate the entire process of coastline changes for the area of interest. During the late glacial period from 20 to 15 cal. ka BP, coastline slowly retreated, causing a land loss of only 1×10⁴ km², and thus the land-sea distribution remained nearly unchanged. Later in 15–10 cal. ka BP coastline rapidly retreated and area of land loss was up to 24×10⁴km², causing lowlands around Northeast Vietnam and South China soon to be underwater. Coastline retreat continued quite rapidly during the early Holocene. From 10 to 6 cal. ka BP land area had decreased by 9×10⁴km², and during that process the Qiongzhou Strait completely opened up. Since the mid Holocene, main controls on coastline change are from vertical crustal movements and sedimentation. Transgression was surpassed by regression, resulting in a land accretion of about 10×10⁴km². Supported by Key Laboratory of Marginal Sea Geology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. MSGL0711), the Guangdong Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 04001309) and Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Marine Geology and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. MGE2007KG04)     

A length-biased version of the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution with application in water quality

In this article, we develop a new model based on the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution that results to be both useful and practical for environmental sciences. The density, distribution and hazard functions, moments and properties of this new model are presented. A graphical analysis of the density is also provided. Furthermore, we estimate parameters, propose asymptotic inference and discuss influence diagnostics by using likelihood methods for the new distribution. An illustrative example with real data related to water quality indicates the adequacy on the new distribution.     

Discussion on Principles and Methods in Estimating the Maximum Potential Earthquakes in Low Seismicity Areas

Five principles and methods are proposed for estimating the maximum potential earthquakesin low seismicity areas,and their applicabilities are discussed,taking Sichuan basin as asample area.The proposed principles and methods are not only on the grounds of thegeological tectonics but also considered fully the mutual complementation between geologicaland seismological methods.They will be helpful to the study of engineering seismology andthe assessment of designing ground motion parameters in low seismicity areas.     

伽师及邻近地区GPS地壳形变监测及初步分析

通过对伽师及邻近地区ＧＰＳ监测网的优化布设和两期观测资料的分析,对伽师及邻近地区的地形变特征进行了探讨,认为伽师地区整体上受到正南北向的主压应力,但在喀什和乌恰－乌仁一带存在着较大的剪应力。伽师地区每年相对于北天山（哈萨克斯坦）的运动速度为１９ｍｍ,整个南天山地区发生中强地震的可能性将长期存在。     

GCM-simulated hydrology in the Arctic duringn the past 21,000 years

The Paleoclimates from Arctic Lakes and Estuaries (PALE) project has chosen to conduct high resolution data-model comparisons for the Arctic region at 21 and 10 (calendar) ka BP. The model simulations for 21, 10, and 0 ka BP were conducted with the GENESIS 2.0 GCM. The 10 ka BP simulation was coupled to the EVE vegetation model. The primary boundary conditions differing from present at 21 ka BP were the northern hemisphere ice sheets and lower CO2, and at 10 ka BP were the orbital insolation and smaller northern hemisphere ice sheets. The purpose of this article is to discuss the hydrological consequences of these simulations.At the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka BP) the large ice sheets over North America and Eurasia and the lower CO2 levels produced a colder climate than present, with less precipitation throughout the Arctic, except where circulation was altered by the ice sheets. At 10 ka BP greater summer insolation resulted in a warmer and wetter Beringia, but conditions remained cold and dry in the north Atlantic sector, in the vicinity of the remnant ice sheets. Less winter insolation at 10 ka BP resulted in colder and drier conditions throughout the Arctic. Precipitation - evaporation generally correlated with precipitation except where changes in the surface type (ice sheets, vegetation at 10 ka BP, or sea level at 21 ka BP) caused large changes in the evaporation rate. The primary hydrological differences (from present) at 21 and 10 ka BP correlated with the temperature differences, which were a direct result of the large-scale boundary condition changes.     

末次盛冰期以来印度尼西亚穿越流对东印度洋上部水体结构的影响

海洋上部水体垂向结构变化对于理解热带海区在全球气候变化中的作用有着重要意义。通过分析印度尼西亚穿越流(ITF)出口处东印度洋帝汶海区SO18480-3孔中的浮游有孔虫表层种Globigerinoides ruber和温跃层种Pulleniatina obliquiloculata壳体氧碳同位素,并借助12个AMS¹⁴C测年数据重建了末次盛冰期(LGM)以来该区温跃层深度和营养盐水平的演化序列。壳体氧同位素(δ¹⁸O)记录表明温跃层古海洋学特征的变化幅度要大于表层海水,其差值(Δδ¹⁸O_(P-G))有效地反映了温跃层深度的变化,即冰消期和晚全新世温跃层较浅,LGM和早中全新世温跃层较深;并揭示出与全新世相比,LGM期间ITF总流量未显著减小,ITF对该区上部水体结构的影响受到了东西太平洋之间不对称性的调节。碳同位素(δ¹³C)记录则表明该区的古海洋学变化在不同程度上受到了南大洋的影响,并受本区上部水体垂向结构的控制,其差值(Δδ¹³_(G-P))在一定程度上反映了该区上部水体营养盐水平的变化。     

末次盛冰期东亚气候的成因检测

在国际古气候模拟比较计划设置的标准试验方案下,首先利用中国科学院大气物理研究所的全球大气环流模式（IAP-AGCM）模拟了末次盛冰期东亚气候状况,然后通过4组数值敏感性试验逐一模拟了大气CO₂浓度、海洋表面温度（SST）和海冰、陆地冰盖和地形、东亚植被变化4项强迫因子的单独气候效应,进而对末次盛冰期东亚气候的成因进行了检测。结果表明,末次盛冰期除华南局部略有升温外,中国年均地表气温显著降低,降温幅度总体上向北增大,青藏高原处存在一个降温中心。其中,SST和海冰变化是华南局部略偏暖的主因,它同时导致了东亚其他区域地表气温的显著降低,特别是在东北亚地区;陆地冰盖和地形变化对于东亚地表气温的显著冷却作用主要体现在东亚的西北部;大气CO₂浓度降低会引起东亚地区0.2～0.9℃的普遍降温;相对而言,东亚植被的降温作用（0.5～1.0℃）主要显现在中国40°N以南的区域。与此同时,SST和海冰变化能引起中国东部年均降水一定程度的减少,而大气CO₂浓度、陆地冰盖和地形、东亚植被单独变化均不会显著影响东亚年均降水的分布状况,然而,上述四项因子的共同变化会通过协同作用引起中国东部年均降水的显著减少,西部地区降水则与现在差别不大。此外,末次盛冰期东亚夏季风的显著减弱源于SST和海冰变化,冬季风变化则可归因于SST和海冰、陆地冰盖和地形的变化。     

末次盛冰期以来河北平原第四系地下水流系统的演变

以区域自然地理及地质历史分析为基础,以环境同位素及大陆盐化咸水后期变化为实证依据,重塑了末次盛冰期以来河北平原第四系地下水流模式演变。研究发现,末次盛冰期以来河北平原第四系地下水流系统经历3个演变阶段:(1)距今18～15ka的低海平面时期,接受持续补给,地下水得到充分交替,发育穿透达到或接近第四系底界的区域水流系统;(2)距今15～12ka的海平面急剧抬升期,地形势差减弱,发育穿透第三含水层组的早期中间水流系统,与此同时区域水流系统趋于停滞;(3)距今2.5ka以来,现代河流地貌成形,高位河床与低位河床及河间低地的势差成为主要驱动力,发育穿透第一及第二含水层组的晚期中间水流系统。随着海平面抬升,后期发育的水流系统切割前期水流系统的一部分并叠置其上。因此,现今河北平原第四系的地下水流系统乃是不同演变时期地下水流系统的时空四维集合体。其他濒海平原,乃至侵蚀强度随时间减弱的内陆盆地,都有可能出现类似图景。距今12ka前后形成的大陆盐化咸水,由上升水流带到浅部,导致浅层咸水以及土地盐渍化,乃是河北平原水资源利用及生态与环境保护的关键性不利因素。