塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地复合沙垄的流场和上覆沙丘组合及动态特征

复合沙垄是最大的沙丘地貌类型之一，表现为简单沙丘类型的垂直叠加和水平连接，在沙垄的高大地形影响下，沙垄不同部位形成不同的风沙环境特征。以塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地/复合沙垄为例，通过野外实地观测研究其流场和上覆沙丘组合特征。研究结果表明，复合沙垄的流场可分为沙垄迎风坡气流加速区、沙垄背风坡气流转向减速区、垄间粗沙平地气流风速风向恢复区和气流风速稳定区。受沙垄流场和地形的控制，沙垄上覆新月形沙丘链，垄间地分有简单新月形沙丘、沙堆、沙片、侵蚀地、简单线形沙丘。上覆沙丘分布特征表现为：垄间地上覆新月形沙丘疏密度较小，沙垄迎风坡和沙垄背风坡上覆新月形沙丘疏密度较大，而且超过1，说明沙垄迎背风坡上覆沙丘有叠置现象。沙垄上覆沙丘高度自沙垄迎风坡底部到顶部增高，背风坡上覆沙丘高度自沙垄顶部到背风坡底部减小，上覆沙丘在自身形态、地形和流场的共同影响下，存在相对运动，表现为分布进一步集中，因此沙垄有增高的趋势。     

西部大开发中的农业结构调整思考

西部地区的农业发展直接影响到我国国民经济是否能够持续快速健康的发展，这是由于我国是农业大国，农业人口大约占全国人口比例的80％，而实现西部地区持续健康发展的关键在于对传统农业产业结构的调整，提高农业增长的结构变动效益，树立大农业观念，延长农业产业链，在联产承包责任制的基础上通过经营权的集中规模种植，达到实现农业结构调整生态化和产业一体化目标。西部地区在大开发战略实施中，如何将自身的发展环境劣势转变为优势，提出了农业结构调整模式的构想。     

利用相控模型进行井间参数预测

储层物性参数在空间的展布，一直是储层非均质性研究的难点，利用分形和蒙特卡洛方法，在精细的沉积微相及小层对比研究基础之上，预测了井间的岩石相分布，并根据取心井资料，建立了各种岩石相的渗透率相控模型，从而预测出井间渗透率的分布。该方法以地质特征为基础，将地质资料与数学方法相结合，充分体现了渗透率在井间既具有连续性，同时变化又非常剧烈的特点，为储层物性空间预测提供了新的思路。     

Upscaling Uncertain Permeability Using Small Cell Renormalization

Sedimentary rocks have structures on all length scales from the millimeter to the kilometer. These structures are generally associated with variations in rock permeability. These need to be modeled if we are to make predictions about fluid flow through the rock. However, existing computers are not powerful enough for us to be able to represent all scales of heterogeneity explicitly in our fluid flow models—hence, we need to upscale. Small cell renormalization is a fast method for upscaling permeability, derived from an analogue circuit of resistors. However, it assumes that the small scale permeability distribution is known. In practice, this is unlikely. The only information available about small scale properties is either qualitative, derived from the depositional setting of the reservoir, or local to the wells as a result of coring or logging. The influence of small scale uncertainty on large scale properties is usually modelled by the Monte Carlo method. This is time-consuming and inaccurate if not enough realisations are used. This paper describes a new implementation of renormalization, which enables the direct upscaling of uncertain small-scale permeabilities to produce the statistical properties of the equivalent coarse grid. This is achieved by using a perturbation expansion of the resistor-derived equation. The method is verified by comparison with numerical simulations using the Monte Carlo method. The prediction of expected large-scale permeability and its standard deviation are shown to be accurate for small cell standard deviations of up to 40% of the mean cell value, using just the first nonzero term of the perturbation expansion. Inclusion of higher order terms allows larger standard deviations to be modeled accurately. Evaluation of cross-terms allows correlations of actual cell values, over and above the background structure of mean cell values. The perturbation method is significantly faster than conventional Monte Carlo simulation. It needs just two calculations whereas the Monte Carlo method needs many thousands of realisations to be generated and renormalized to converge. This results in significant savings in computer time.     

一种基于马尔可夫随机场的影像纹理分类方法

针对纹理影像先估计出其马尔可夫随机场参数，后运用多元统计分析中模糊聚类分析的数学方法进行定量分类，从而为解决划分上的不确定性现象找出描述方法，获得客观的分类结果     

Optimal operation model of a single reservoir with drought duration explicitly concerned

In this paper, a new model for a single reservoir operation optimization is proposed. The proposed model can design the optimal operation policy of a reservoir with explicit consideration of drought duration. The authors model this problem by formulating a single-stage loss function as a function of both the reservoir release and drought duration. Thereby the expected loss per period which is calculated based on the above extended single-stage loss function is minimized in infinite time horizon on the basis of Markov decision process (MDP) theory. The reliability indices are estimated as expected loss per period for specified extended loss functions. Finally, the features of the proposed model are illustrated through numerical analysis.     

利用马氏过程模拟和预测土壤侵蚀的动态演变─—以安徽省岳西县为例

本文根据安徽省岳西县１９５８－１９８２－１９９２年三个时期的遥感资料所编制的土壤侵蚀图，用点数转化法定量地分析岳西县上述两个阶段侵蚀演变和浸蚀类型之间的相互转化状况，确定相应的初始状态下（１９５８和１９８２）的转移概率矩阵，应用马尔科夫过程摸拟和预测岳西县土壤侵蚀及其格局的动态演变过程和未来演变趋势。     

川滇强震的回归—马尔可夫链联合预测

本文应用回归—马尔可夫链联合预测地震的方法,结合川、滇强震的特点,对川、滇强震进行了计算,并作了预测验证。结果表明,该方法对川、滇强震的预测效果较好。     

Stratigraphic analysis and the asymptotic distribution of the coefficient of cross-association

The asymptotic distribution of the coefficient of cross-association between two sequences of nominal data is investigated under the assumption of independent random sampling from a multinomial distribution slightly modified to suit geological applications. This modification is due to merging consecutive strata of the same rock type into one lithological unit, and can be described by a simple Markov chain. A distinction is made between the case in which the theoretical frequencies are known, and the situation where these have to be estimated from the observed data.     

Water isotopic and hydrochemical evolution of a lake chain in the northern Great Plains and its paleoclimatic implications

Oxygen isotopes and geochemistry from lake sediments are commonly used as proxies of past hydrologic and climatic conditions, but the importance of present-day hydrologic processes in controlling these proxies are sometimes not well established and understood. Here we use present-day hydrochemical data from 13 lakes in a hydrologically connected lake chain in the northern Great Plains (NGP) to investigate isotopic and solute evolution along a hydrologic gradient. The ¹⁸O and ²H of water from the chain of lakes, when plotted in ²H - ¹⁸O space, form a line with a slope of 5.9, indicating that these waters fall on an evaporation trend. However, 10 of the 13 lakes are isotopically similar (¹⁸O = –6 ± 1 VSMOW) and show no correlation with salinity (which ranges from 1 to 65). The lack of correlation implies that the isotopic composition of various source waters rather than in-lake evaporation is the main control of the ¹⁸O of the lakes. Groundwater, an important input in the water budget of this chain of lakes, has a lower ¹⁸O value (–16.7 in 1998) than that of mean annual precipitation (–11) owing to selective recharge from snow melt. For the lakes in this chain with salinity < 15, the water Mg/Ca ratios are strongly correlated with salinity, whereas Sr/Ca is not. The poor correlation between Sr/Ca and salinity results from uptake of Sr by endogenic aragonite. These new results indicate that ¹⁸O records may not be interpreted simply in term of climate in the NGP, and that local hydrology needs to be adequately investigated before a meaningful interpretation of sedimentary records can be reached.