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51.
Scale mismatches and their ecological and economic effects on landscapes: A spatially explicit model
Mismatches between the spatial scales of human decision-making and natural processes contribute to environmental problems such as global warming and biodiversity losses. People damage the environment through local activities like clearing land or burning fossil fuels, but the damages only become manifest at larger regional or global scales where no one pays for them. Payments for ecological services like carbon sequestration can correct for these damages caused by scale mismatches. This paper presents a spatially explicit land-use model to investigate the consequences of scale mismatches for pollination and carbon storage services and examine the effect of payment for only carbon storage services. The model integrates processes in multiple spatial scales ranging from the parcel level used by landowners’ decision about deforestation, to the larger scale used by animals to pollinate plants, and finally to the global scale where carbon storage services are supplied. We show that payment for carbon storage services can become an effective mechanism to protect forests at the same time that it creates inequities among landowners in income level.These findings suggest that market-based approaches that focus on conservation of a single ecosystem service may reproduce unequal power relations among landowners. 相似文献
52.
将模糊综合评价及马尔可夫链同时运用到空气质量的评价中,可克服大气环境系统所固有的模糊性及随机性。通过1994—1998年芜湖市大气环境监测数据计算表明:不仅预测结果准确,而且由于应用了模糊数学方法,使得结果较为可信,且整个过程计算简单,是一种较适合的方法。 相似文献
53.
改进灰色马尔科夫模型在基坑预测中的研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
基坑预测问题关系到工程施工的安全,在施工过程中对基坑进行周密的监测和变性预测分析显得尤为重要。针对传统预测模型存在固有偏差和可靠性低的缺点,采用新陈代谢的原理对无偏灰色加权马尔科夫模型进行改进。该模型先用无偏灰色模型拟合系统的总体变化趋势,然后,对拟合残差进行马尔可夫状态划分,并根据各阶权重对不同步长的转移矩阵进行加权处理,用加权后的无偏灰色马尔科夫模型进行预测。在每一步的预测中,利用新陈代谢的原理不断更新建模所使用的数据。将该模型用于基坑沉降预测,并通过实例进行验证。实验表明:基于新陈代谢的无偏灰色加权马尔科夫模型提高了基坑沉降预测的精度和可靠性,预测精度与未改进模型相比提高了8.54%。 相似文献
54.
Remote sensing satellite data offer the unique possibility to map land use land cover transformations by providing spatially explicit information. However, detection of short-term processes and land use patterns of high spatial–temporal variability is a challenging task.We present a novel framework using multi-temporal TerraSAR-X data and machine learning techniques, namely discriminative Markov random fields with spatio-temporal priors, and import vector machines, in order to advance the mapping of land cover characterized by short-term changes. Our study region covers a current deforestation frontier in the Brazilian state Pará with land cover dominated by primary forests, different types of pasture land and secondary vegetation, and land use dominated by short-term processes such as slash-and-burn activities. The data set comprises multi-temporal TerraSAR-X imagery acquired over the course of the 2014 dry season, as well as optical data (RapidEye, Landsat) for reference. Results show that land use land cover is reliably mapped, resulting in spatially adjusted overall accuracies of up to 79% in a five class setting, yet limitations for the differentiation of different pasture types remain.The proposed method is applicable on multi-temporal data sets, and constitutes a feasible approach to map land use land cover in regions that are affected by high-frequent temporal changes. 相似文献
55.
钾-氩法所测出的地质事件的表面年龄一般小于地质事件发生的真实年龄,其中很多没有地质意义。本文利用随机过程理论,在对地质体内40Ar的逸散作用进行分析的基础上,推导出如下年龄计算公式: 在一定条件下,利用这些公式,可以据钾-氩法测试资料求出地质体形成时代t+t0、热扰动结束时代t0及热事件所持续的时期t’。据所导出的公式,对冀东迁西群地层的年龄进行讨论,求得2500Ma左右结束的那期热事件所持续的时期t’为4.76亿年,迁西群形成时代为3000—3300Ma。检验表明,公式有效。 相似文献
56.
This paper outlines a procedure for the derivation of the differential equations describing the free response of a heaving and pitching ship from its stationary response to random waves. The coupled heave–pitch motion of a ship in random seas is modelled as a multi-dimensional Markov process. The partial differential equation describing the transition probability density function, known as the Fokker-Planck equation, for this process is derived. The Fokker-Planck equation is used to derive the random decrement equations for the coupled heave–pitch motion. The parameters in these equations are then identified using a neural network approach. The method is validated using numerical simulations and experimental results. The experimental data was obtained using an icebreaker ship model heaving and pitching in random waves. It is shown that the method produces good results when the system is lightly damped. An extension for using this method to identify couple heave–pitch motion in realistic seas is suggested. 相似文献
57.
关于-遗传算法收敛性的注记 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
遗传算法是一种受到广泛注意的全局优化算法,已经在包括地震工程的很多领域中获得应用.本文将结合这一算法的实际操作步骤,对简单遗传算法的不收敛性和包含最优个体保护策略的遗传算法的收敛性给出一个简要的证明. 相似文献
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60.
Application of Markovian models for non-ergodic and non-stationary earthquake times series for the identification of seismic patterns and future projections*
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Hakan Karaca 《地震科学(英文版)》2020,33(2):98-106
The current earthquake forecast algorithms are not free of shortcomings due to inherent limitations. Especially, the requirement of stationarity in the evaluation of earthquake time series as a prerequisite, significantly limits the use of forecast algorithms to areas where stationary data is not available. Another shortcoming of forecast algorithms is the ergodicity assumption, which states that certain characteristics of seismicity are spatially invariant. In this study, a new earthquake forecast approach is introduced for the locations where stationary data are not available. For this purpose, the spatial activity rate density for each spatial unit is evaluated as a parameter of a Markov chain. The temporal pattern is identified by setting the states at certain spatial activity rate densities. By using the transition patterns between the states, 1- and 5-year forecasts were computed. The method is suggested as an alternative and complementary to the existing methods by proposing a solution to the issues of ergodicity and stationarity assumptions at the same time. 相似文献