Trend detection in river flow series: 2. Flood and low-flow index series / Détection de tendance dans des séries de débit fluvial: 2. Séries d'indices de crue et d'étiage

Abstract

Major floods in Europe and North America during the past decade have provoked the question of whether or not they are an effect of a changing climate. This study investigates changes in observational data, using up to 100-year-long daily mean river flow records at 21 stations worldwide. Trends in seven flood and low-flow index series are assessed using Mann-Kendall and linear regression methods. Emphasis was on the comparison of trends in these flow index series, particularly in peak-over-threshold (POT) series as opposed to annual maximum (AM) river flow series. There is a larger number of significant trends in the AM than in the POT flood magnitude series, probably relating to the way the series are constructed. Low flood peaks occurring at the beginning or end of a time series with trend may be too low to be selected for the POT analysis. However, one peak per year will always be selected for the AM series, making the slope steeper and/or the series longer, resulting in a more significant trend. There is no general pattern of increasing or decreasing numbers or magnitudes of floods, but there are significant increases in half of the low-flow series.     

Evaluation of temperature trends over India / Evaluation de tendances de température en Inde

Abstract

Abstract The impact of climate change is projected to have different effects within and between countries. Information about such change is required at global, regional and basin scales for a variety of purposes. An investigation was carried out to identify trends in temperature time series of 125 stations distributed over the whole of India. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to detect monotonic trends in annual average and seasonal temperatures. Three variables related to temperature, viz. mean, mean maximum and mean minimum, were considered for analysis on both an annual and a seasonal basis. Each year was divided into four principal seasons, viz. winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon. The percentages of significant trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons are presented. Temperature anomalies are plotted, and it is observed that annual mean temperature, mean maximum temperature and mean minimum temperature have increased at the rate of 0.42, 0.92 and 0.09°C (100 year)^-1, respectively. On a regional basis, stations of southern and western India show a rising trend of 1.06 and 0.36°C (100 year)^-1, respectively, while stations of the north Indian plains show a falling trend of –0.38°C (100 year)^-1. The seasonal mean temperature has increased by 0.94°C (100 year)^-1 for the post-monsoon season and by 1.1°C (100 year)^-1 for the winter season.     

基于多变量M-K检验的北江流域降水趋势分析

降水是北江流域水资源的主要来源,因此研究北江流域降水趋势有利于水资源合理规划和实现可持续利用,但目前的趋势分析主要以单变量趋势检验为主,对多变量的趋势分析研究较少。基于此,分别采用单变量和多变量M-K检验趋势分析方法,针对北江流域6个代表性气象站点1959~2009年逐日降水资料,以各站的年降水量、年降水天数和年最大降水量三个变量为主要研究对象,分析得到北江流域的降水变化整体趋势。结果表明,仁化站、韶关站、乐昌站、连州站和广宁站的变化趋势不显著,清远站的变化趋势显著。在整体趋势分析方面,多变量趋势分析方法可同时考虑降水的多重属性特点,从而可更好分析流域降水整体趋势。     

MÉTHODE D'ÉTUDE DES NAPPES LIBRES DANS LES AQUIFÈRES ANISOTROPES

Abstract

The necessary and sufficient conditions for non-zero phase shift and non-zero attenuation in linear flood routing can be derived from the continuity equation alone and are found to depend on the existence of an imaginary part in the expression for frequency or in the expression for wave number. It is shown that in linear flood routing the phase lag between flow rate and area of flow is directly related to the attenuation per unit wave length. The effects of using various forms of the momentum equation, in addition to the continuity equation, are exemplified by deriving analytical expressions in terms of the frequency, both for attenuation per unit channel length and for phase shift, for the kinematic wave, the general diffusion analogy, and the complete St. Venant equation.     

1956-2003年拉萨河流域径流变化趋势

Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations （Lhasa and Tanggya） and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations （Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya）. The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows： （1） The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points （around 1970 and the early 1980s）, after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year （November to April） and some other months （May, July and September）. （2） The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season.     

华南暴雨的气候特征及变化

利用华南110个测站1961—2008年逐日降水资料,采用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析、计算趋势系数等统计诊断方法,分析了华南年和前、后汛期的暴雨日数、强度、贡献率等的气候特征及变化。结果表明,近48年来,华南年平均暴雨日数的地理分布总体上呈由沿海向内陆递减的趋势,最多中心在广西东兴（14.9d）,最少中心在广西隆林（3.2 d）。华南的暴雨72%发生在汛期,其中前汛期占45%,后汛期占27%。华南平均年和前、后汛期暴雨日数呈微弱上升趋势,但不明显。年和前、后汛期暴雨日数具有明显的年际、年代际变化特征。华南平均年和前汛期的暴雨强度有微弱增加趋势,特别是2005年以来升幅明显,而后汛期暴雨强度有不明显减少趋势。华南年暴雨贡献率增加明显,而前、后汛期暴雨贡献率增加并不明显。小波分析表明：2000年以来,华南年、前、后汛期暴雨日数具有2～3 a和3～4 a准周期振荡。     

三江源区径流演变及其对气候变化的响应

利用水循环模型、统计检测、对比分析等手段对三江源区水循环过程进行了分析,模拟和检测了1958-2005 年黄河源区出口唐乃亥站、长江源区直门达站、澜沧江源区昌都站汛期、非汛期和年径流过程的变化趋势。在此基础上,检测CSIRO和NCAR两种气候模式A1B和B1 排放情景下未来2010-2039 年源区出口断面的径流演变趋势,对比分析了气候变化的影响。研究表明过去48 年三江源区出口唐乃亥站年径流和非汛期径流过程呈显著减少趋势,而直门达和昌都站径流过程变化趋势并不显著。这将导致对黄河中下游地区的水资源补给显著减少,加剧黄河流域水资源短缺。气候变化背景下,未来30 年黄河源区径流量与现状相比有所减少,尤其是在非汛期,将持续加剧黄河中下游流域水资源短缺的现象。长江源区径流量将呈增加趋势,而且远远高于现状流量,尤其是在汛期,长江中下游地区防洪形势严峻。而澜沧江源区未来30 年径流量均高于现状流量,但汛期和年径流变化并不显著,而非汛期径流变化存在不确定性,CSIRO模式B1 情景显著减小,而NCAR模式B1 情景显著增加。气候变化对长江源区径流影响最显著,黄河源区其次,而澜沧江源区最小。     

中国东北主要生态系统气温变化趋势比较

全球变暖是当前人类社会面临的主要环境问题,对同一区域不同生态系统气温变化差异的认知,是服务于当地生态环境评价和经济建设规划的基础。以1961-2012年的气温数据为基础,用Mann-Kendall(M-K)秩次相关法对中国东北地区纬度相差极小的农业(海伦站)、森林(博克图站)、草甸草原(海拉尔站)、干草原(满洲里站)4类生态系统的气温变化进行了比较分析。结果表明:(1)1961-2012年东北地区主要生态系统年最高气温变化趋势最显著,其次是年平均气温,年最低气温变化趋势不显著。(2)不同生态系统年平均气温、年最高气温、年最低气温的变化趋势具有一致性,同一生态系统年平均气温、年最高气温和年最低气温的变化趋势存在差异。(3)从年平均气温来看,草甸草原生态系统变化趋势最显著,气温变化率最大(0.44℃/10a),发生气温突变的时间最早;从年最高气温来看,农业生态系统一直呈上升趋势,20世纪90年代后期上升趋势显著,气温突变点出现的时间最早。     

1961-2014年张掖市降水变化趋势

选取张掖气象站1961-2014年逐日降水观测资料,采用线性趋势分析和Mann-kendall 检验等方法分析了张掖市年降水量、年最大降水量、冬季降水量和其他季节降水量的变化趋势和突变特征。结果表明：1961-2014年张掖市年降水量总体呈增加趋势,其中1982-1984、1995-1996、2007-2013年降水量增加趋势显著。年最大降水量和冬季降水量增加趋势明显,分别发生了6次和1次突变,其中年最大降水量突变点分别发生在1963年、1980年、1982年、1984年、1987年和1991年;冬季降水量1964年后呈显著增加趋势,1969年降水量突变增加。而其他季节降水量呈波动增加趋势,突变增加分别在1963年、1967年和1969年发生。     

基于遥感的植被长时序趋势特征研究进展及评价

基于遥感的植被长时序变化特征是植被生态学研究的核心领域, 也是全球变化研究的重点方向。AVHRR、SPOT VGT和MODIS是当前研究植被长时序趋势变化的主要数据源。海量数据不断积累的同时, 植被长时序趋势特征研究方法却缺乏对比评价和分析。当前常用的方法有代数运算法、傅里叶变换、主成分分析、小波变换法、回归分析法和相关系数分析法等。在对各种方法评述和分析的基础上, 重点讨论和对比了主流方法中的回归分析法和相关系数分析与新兴方法Sen＋Mann-Kendall法。结果表明, Sen＋Mann-Kendall能克服主流方法的不足, 不需要数据服从某一特定分布, 并且对数据的误差具有较强的抵抗能力。