珠江口海平面特征分析

根据珠江三角洲网河区及口门位置的四个验潮站38年的月均水位资料,利用小波方法分析水位的周期性变动成分,同时结合重标极差法与Mann-Kendall法对水位变动的持续性及趋势性进行研究,通过对比网河区与口门位置水位变动的异同,揭示珠江口海平面的变化特征。研究表明,1957-1994年间,珠江口海平面存在2～8a的显著周期性变动,以及10a和20a左右的周期性变动。珠江口的海平面变化具有明显的持续性,且越靠近口门,这种持续性越明显。珠江口的海平面变化总体为上升趋势,上升速度介于1.6～4.0mm/a。     

Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow / Détection de tendance dans des séries de débit fluvial: 1. Débit maximum annuel

Abstract

Results of a study on change detection in hydrological time series of annual maximum river flow are presented. Out of more than a thousand long time series made available by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in Koblenz, Germany, a worldwide data set consisting of 195 long series of daily mean flow records was selected, based on such criteria as length of series, currency, lack of gaps and missing values, adequate geographical distribution, and priority to smaller catchments. The analysis of annual maximum flows does not support the hypothesis of ubiquitous growth of high flows. Although 27 cases of strong, statistically significant increase were identified by the Mann-Kendall test, there are 31 decreases as well, and most (137) time series do not show any significant changes (at the 10% level). Caution is advised in interpreting these results as flooding is a complex phenomenon, caused by a number of factors that can be associated with local, regional, and hemispheric climatic processes. Moreover, river flow has strong natural variability and exhibits long-term persistence which can confound the results of trend and significance tests.     

黄河中下游地区旱涝分型及突变的初步分析

采用CEOF(复经验正交函数)对黄河中下游地区15个代表站点近500年来的旱涝等级指数分析结果表明,历史时期本地区的旱涝分布特点可用三种分布型表征:平均型、东西反相型和南北反相型,对上述三种旱涝分布型的时间振幅,应用Mann-Kendall方法进行突变检验,可以发现平均型和东西反相型近500年来发生旱涝突变,而南北反相型则相对比较稳定。     

Responses of streamflow to climate change in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang: A case study of the Toutun River basin

A case study on the responses of streamflow to climate change in the Toutun River basin was carried out based on data analysis of streamflow, precipitation, and temperatures during the past 50 years.Temporal series of the streamflow change in the Toutun River basin was analyzed and tested using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. Results revealed that the annual runoff of the Toutun River had been in a monotonic decreasing trend for the past 50 years. Compared with the 1950s and 1960s, the annual runoff in the 1990s decreased by 4.0×105 m3 and 7.2×105 m3. The precipitation did not show monotonic trend during the past 50 years, but the annual temperature increased by 1.12℃ since the 1950s. Further data analysis indicated that the monthly runoff of the Toutun River decreased significantly from August to October, with precipitation displaying the similar pattern of seasonal change. Analysis suggests that the reduction of streamflow in the Toutun River basin is possibly caused by the seasonal change of precipitation, especially the precipitation reduction in summer, and temperature increases.     

Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment

Precipitation trends in the Yangtze River catchment (PR China) have been analyzed for the past 50 years by applying the Mann-Kendall trend test and geospatial analyses. Monthly precipitation trends of 36 stations have been calculated. Significant positive trends at many stations can be observed for the summer months, which naturally show precipitation maxima. They were preceded and/or followed by negative trends. This observation points towards a concentration of summer precipitation within a shorter period of time. The analysis of a second data set on a gridded basis with 0.5° resolution reveals trends with distinct spatial patterns. The combination of classic trend tests and spatially interpolated precipitation data sets allows the spatiotemporal visualization of detected trends. Months with positive trends emphasize the aggravation of severe situation in a region, which is particularly prone to flood disasters during summer. Reasons for the observed trends were found in variations in the meridional wind pattern at the 850 hPa level, which account for an increased transport of warm moist air to the Yangtze River catchment during the summer months.     

广东省1960～2007年降雨侵蚀力变化趋势分析

降雨侵蚀力反映由降雨引起的土壤侵蚀的潜在能力.本文利用广东省25个站点48年(1960～2007)的日雨量资料计算了各站的降雨侵蚀力,并用Mann-Kendall(M-K)非参数检验和克里格空间插值法分析了降雨侵蚀力的时空变化规律.结果表明:广东省降雨侵蚀力的空间分布呈沿海向内陆逐渐递减的趋势.全省大部分地区的年降雨侵蚀力呈现不明显上升趋势,且存在较明显的年代际和年际变化.降雨侵蚀力的年内分布特征和降雨量分布类似,呈"双峰型",主要集中在4～9月的雨季.对于季节序列,冬季、春季和夏季大部分地区的降雨侵蚀力有不同程度的上升,秋季全省几乎所有地区呈下降趋势.汛期的降雨侵蚀力变化特征与年降雨侵蚀力相似.     

Response of runoff to climate change in the area of runoff yield in upstream Shiyang River Basin,Northwest China: A case study of the Xiying River

The objective of this study was to analyze the response of runoff in the area of runoff yield of the upstream Shiyang River basin to climate change and to promote sustainable development of regional water resources and ecological environment. As the biggest tributary of the Shiyang River, Xiying River is the only hydrological station (Jiutiaoling) that has provincial natural river and can achieve long time series monitoring data in the basin. The data obtained from this station is representative of natural conditions because it has little human activites. This study built a regression model through identifying the characteristics of runoff and climate change by using Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test, cumulative anomaly, and correlation analysis. The results show that the average annual runoff is 320.6 million m³/a with the coefficient of variation of 0.18 and shows slightly decrease during 1956–2020. It has a significant positive correlation the average annual precipitation (P<0.01). Runoff is sensitive to climate change, and the climate has becoming warm and wet and annual runoff has entering wet period from 2003. Compared to the earlier period (1955–2000), the increases of average annual temperature, precipitation and runoff in recent two decades were 15%, 9.3%, and 7.8%, respectively. Runoff in the Shiyang River is affected by temperature and precipitation among climate factors, and the simulation results of the runoff-climate response model (R = 0.0052P ? 0.1589T + 2.373) indicate that higher temperature leads to a weakening of the ecological regulation of surface runoff in the flow-producing area.     

1961-2010年青海高原蒸发皿蒸发量变化及其对水资源的影响

利用1961-2010年青海省气象观测资料,分析了青海高原近50年蒸发皿蒸发量的时空分布特征和变化趋势,并采用偏相关及主成分分析法,探讨了青海高原蒸发皿蒸发量变化的气候成因及其对水资源的影响。结果表明：近50 a来青海高原蒸发皿蒸发量呈显著下降趋势,它是热力、水分、动力因子综合作用的结果,在三类因子中,动力及水分因子对蒸发皿蒸发量的影响较大,而热力因子相对较小;区域分析表明,影响东部农业区和柴达木盆地蒸发量的主导因子是平均风速和相对湿度,三江源区为相对湿度,而唐古拉山区为气温日较差。通过分析黄河上游可能蒸散量与地表水资源的关系发现,蒸散量对地表水资源的负效应十分显著,其中夏季蒸散量对于平均流量的影响最为显著,而秋季平均流量对蒸散量的响应最为敏感。     

阜新地区1951—2010年降水变化特征

根据阜新地区2个观测站1951-2010年逐月和逐年降水资料,通过趋势分析、Mexicohat小波变换和Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,分析了阜新地区降水的气候变化特征。结果表明：阜新地区近60 a来年降水量呈下降趋势,下降速率为10.7 mm/10a;降水量年际变化明显,极易出现旱涝灾害。除春季降水略有增加外,其他三季均呈减少趋势。年降水量和季节降水量均有准12 a和18 a的周期振荡。除春季降水量没有明显突变点外,夏、秋、冬三季均存在突变点,其中夏季降水量存在3个突变年份,分别为1967年、1978年和1986年,秋季降水量在1996年存在突变,冬季降水量在2004年存在突变。     

1960-2013年艾比湖绿洲湿地潜在蒸散量及地表湿润度变化特征分析

基于阿拉山口、精河、博乐、温泉4个气象站点1960-2013年地面观测气象数据,采用Penman-Monteith公式、Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析、主成分相关分析等方法分析艾比湖绿洲湿地年及季节潜在蒸散量及地表湿润度的特征变化及定量化成因,以期为艾比湖绿洲湿地区域的水资源科学配置提供科学依据。结果表明：（1）1960-2013年,艾比湖绿洲湿地年平均潜在蒸散量为1 063.52mm,夏季值最大为552.3 mm,冬季最小为25.3 mm,年平均潜在蒸散量以12.68 mm·（10a）^-1的速率递减,各季节潜在蒸散变化趋势与年变化一致,夏季表现最明显;（2）Mann-Kendall检验表明,年均和春、夏、秋潜在蒸散量显著性突变时间分别是1991年、1994年、1994年和1993年,冬季不存在突变,显著性突变均发生在21世纪90年代,地表湿润度年突变时间为1985年;（3）艾比湖绿洲湿地潜在蒸散量及地表湿润度存在明显的周期变化,主震荡周期分别为29 a和21 a,以多、少交替发生,具有全域性;（4）风速是年及季节潜在蒸散量的主导因素,地表湿润度变化的主导因素是降水量和相对湿度。