A Comparative Research on Climatic Characteristics of Jianghuai Cyclones in Rainfall Season between Warming and Cooling Stages

By EOF, Power spectrum and nonlinear mapping methods, the temperature time series of May to July in Jianghuai river basins from 1948-2014 (67 years) were objectively divided into several climate stages. The time series were divided into three climate stages with similar lengths: the stage with its air temperature trend going downwards stage (1948-1970); the stage with its air temperature trend going upwards (1971-1994) and the stage with its air temperature trend going gentle upwards (1995-2014). Their climate characteristics can be quantified by a special climate index. Then, the statistic characteristics of Jianghuai cyclones in the three climate stages were compared with the cooling or warming trends. The results showed that characteristic evolutions of the frequency of yearly average of Jianhuai cyclones, the cyclones with their life cycles in the area longer than 48h, the cyclones with three types of thickness, shallow and bottom shapes classified according to the cyclone height, the cyclones with three kinds of zonal, meridional, and circular trajectory, responded to the temperature changing trends in the three climate stages. The cooling trends of the stage temperature restrained the activity of Jianghuai cyclones, and the warming trends of the stage temperature promoted the cyclone’s development, maintaining, activity, and also led cyclone moving towards to north further. The composite analysis of cyclone structures showed that the evolution characteristics in the center intensity, temperature grads, the maxima velocity of jet of the cyclones, and the intensity, length and position of the vapor flux passage of the Jianghuai cyclones, also the intensity, thickness, the positions of the warm and cold air masses within the cyclones, all responded to the trend change of stage temperature including cooling, warming and gentle warming. The results show clearly that temperature cooling reduces the intensity of cyclone structures and restrains the activity of cyclones in the temperatures trend down stage. The temperature warming enhances the stable development and strengthening of cyclone structure,and maintains the activity of cyclones in the temperature warming stages.     

探讨地震宏观破坏场分布的影响因素

提出震后根据仪器定位的微观震中和断层构造的关系快速确定可能的宏观震中位置,并依此使用烈度经验分布模型来进行震害快速评估。这将提高直接用微观震中位置进行震害快速评估方法的精度。通过对全国133个主要地震的微观震中与宏观震中偏离量进行统计可知。偏离量在35km范围内的占88％,其余基本都在75km范围内。这样就给出了判定宏观震中的重点区域和分析区域。详细分析南北地震带66个震例及其与断层空间分布特征的关系。以及震源机制解结果后发现,影响宏观震中偏离的因素除仪器定位本身的误差外,主要还有断层展布方向、活动规模、断层相互交接特征及震级大小等。通过对这些影响因素的分类处理分析,建立了震后室内快速判定可能的宏观震中位置的原则和步骤。以该方法为基础,通过建立包含有关因素的全国断层数据库,即可在实际的震害快速评估中得以应用。     

Significant high number commensurabilities in the main lunar problem II: The occurrence of Saros-like near periodicities

The effect of changes in the Moon's semimajor axis and the Earth's orbital eccentricity on the occurrence of Saros-like cycles is examined. The Earth-Moon-Sun dynamical system exhibits such cycles for only 25 to 30% of the time interval between –5×10⁷ to +5×10⁷ years. Not only has the present Saros the smallest period during this time, but it also has one of the longest durations and the period closest to an integral number of anomalistic years, thus making it one of the most efficient Saros-like cycles for reversing solar perturbations in the main lunar problem. During the lifetime of a Saros-like cycle, variations of the Earth's orbital eccentricity cause frequent disappearances and reappearances of the cycle.     

几种亚洲季风指数与中国夏季主要雨型的关联

首先采用EOF方法分析了中国夏季降水的主要特征 ,其第一 (EOF1 )和第二 (EOF2 )特征向量及其时间序列 (EOF1 - T、EOF2 T)基本上反映了中国夏季 1 (或 3)类和 2类主要雨型的空间和时间分布 ;进一步建立了EOF1、EOF2及其对应的时间序列EOF1 - T、EOF2- T与季风指数的关联 ,以及中国夏季主要雨型与季风指数直接的关联。结果表明 :各季风指数都对中国夏季的 1类雨型有较好的反映能力 ,都对 2类雨型无反映能力 ,仅学者施能定义的指数对 3类雨型有一定的反映能力。     

楚雄盆地油气保存单元划分与评价

盆地经历多期构造运动,燕山期是油气藏关键时刻.晚燕山期后上覆K2-E地层成为新的区域盖层,喜马拉雅运动的挤压作用加强和改造了原先形成的圈闭,使油气重新分配,形成新的油气保存单元.将楚雄盆地现今油气保存单元划分为持续型、残留型、改造型及重建型四种基本类型,并对其进行综合评价.     

苏北盆地油气富集与分布的主控因素

根据烃源岩及沉积体系的分布、断裂的发育与分布、盖层的发育状况、圈闭形成时期等因素与油气富集特征的分析,认为苏北盆地各凹陷的油气富集程度与其烃源岩的发育程度有关,油气藏的形成及分布与断层密切相关,断层是控制油气成藏与富集的主要因素之一;紧邻生烃中心的长期隆起区是油气运移的指向区,控制油气的聚集成藏;区域盖层阻止油气往上覆层运移,其下伏储集层段为油气富集层段,缺乏统一区域性盖层的层段,局部盖层发育与否直接影响油气富集程度;沉积体系的分布控制油气的分布和富集地区。     

重新划分塔里木盆地塔北隆起的次级构造单元

塔北隆起位于塔里木盆地北部,是塔里木盆地油气最富集的构造单元之一.其在古生代克拉通内古隆起的基础上,于二叠纪末-三叠纪早期定型为库车周缘前陆盆地的前缘隆起.新生代,其整体沉降,成为埋藏于北塔里木陆内前陆盆地前渊下的一个残余古隆起.目前通用的塔北隆起构造单元划分方案不能准确反映其真实的构造格局.根据最新的研究成果,我们建议重新划分塔北隆起构造单元:(1)取消哈拉哈塘凹陷和草湖凹陷,重新定义轮南低凸起.重新定义的轮南低凸起包括原轮南低凸起、哈拉哈塘凹陷和草湖凹陷北部,是一个下古生界大型鼻状背斜构造,形成于前石炭纪;原草湖凹陷南部划归北部坳陷.(2)以中奥陶统顶面海拔约-6500m的等高线作为塔北隆起的南部边界,该等高线较好地反映了塔北隆起南部的构造轮廓,特别是轮南大型鼻状背斜构造的轮廓.(3)以羊塔1-英买8断裂和英买4-英买1背斜组成的一条较清晰的古生界构造线划分轮台凸起和英买力低凸起.此界线两侧,古生界各反射层存在陡然、明显的落差,岩浆作用、地层发育、构造变形和演化历史存在明显差异.重新划分的塔北隆起包括库尔勒鼻状凸起、轮台凸起、轮南低凸起、英买力低凸起和温宿鼻状凸起五个次级构造单元.本文给出了塔北隆起及其各次级构造单元清晰的定义和范围,并简单论述了其形成演化过程.     

昆明阳宗海流域岩溶地下水脆弱性评价

阳宗海岩溶地下水发育,地下水环境较为脆弱。利用DRASTIC法对阳宗海流域地下水环境进行综合评价,将地下水脆弱性按高、中、低3个等级共分为13个小区,分别进行评述,有助于指导流域地下水环境的保护和防治。     

库车坳陷克拉苏构造带分层收缩构造变形及其主控因素

库车坳陷中段克拉苏构造带广泛发育盐相关收缩构造变形,总体具有"垂向叠置、分层变形"的整体挤压变形特征。沿东-西向克拉苏构造带不同区段深浅层构造变形样式、断层位移存在明显差异,北部盐下层由1～2条高角度基底卷入逆冲断层为主导,并在断层下盘发育捷径断层。区域结构平衡剖面和先存构造活动趋势分析结果表明,克拉苏构造带北侧变形属于基底卷入变形,早期先存断裂在后期收缩变形中重新活动,形成高角度的逆冲断裂。物理和数值砂箱模拟结果表明,盐岩层先于其上、下地层发生变形,其厚度、分布及边界条件差异是造成垂向分层收缩变形的主要控制因素。     

数值模拟法在地下水水源地保护区划分中的应用

地下水资源是北京供水系统的支柱,设立地下水水源地保护区,是保护水源地最大可能免受人类活动影响、保证水质安全的重要措施。论文以北京市某典型水源地为例,在收集相关水文地质勘查、长期动态观测、水源地开采现状、规划及周边污染源调查等成果资料的基础上,建立了地下水系统水文地质概念模型,模拟出地下水流场。通过质点追踪技术,计算水源地水力捕获带范围。综合考虑水源地周边地形、地物和潜在风险污染源等因素,确定了水源地保护区的范围。结果表明,数值模拟法能客观详细地刻画实际地下水含水层的结构与水文地质条件,划分结果可靠、准确,能为地下水管理部门提供有效合理的保护依据。