基于土地集约利用的长株潭城市群建设用地供需仿真模拟

土地集约利用反映了土地利用的综合状态,是协调土地供需平衡的重要指标。运用系统动力学（SD）构建城市建设用地供需反馈关系回路以及指标变量函数,在此基础上,建立长株潭城市群建设用地供需系统模型,仿真模拟低土地集约利用度、中等土地集约利用度、高土地集约利用度三种不同状态条件下,2016-2030年区域的建设用地、工业用地和居住用地供需变化趋势。结果表明：① 研究区用地规模仍处于扩张状态,城市建设用地数量增长速度总体较快。但三种发展状态下用地增长规模、速度存有差异;② 在低集约度模式下,建设用地规模及供地数量大,易造成土地资源的浪费;高集约度模式下,建设用地供给紧缩,用地规模增长缓慢,总规模偏小,不利于城镇化的良性发展;中等集约度模式则在用地规模和供给量上均与社会经济发展相适应,能体现现代城市发展理念;③ 工业用地占建设用地比例保持在15%~21%之间,其中低集约度模式下比例逐年上升,中等和高集约度模式下呈缓慢下降并趋于稳定之势;居住用地占建设用地的比例维持在27%~35%之间,其中低集约度和中等集约度模式用地占比呈下降趋势,高集约度模式比例总体维持在较高水平。研究通过对三种发展模式的设定,确定了不同指标在三种模式下的变化趋势,可为土地供需决策优化、城市建设规划及土地供给侧结构性改革提供科学参考。     

“一带一路”背景下的中国与巴基斯坦的贸易关系演进及其影响因素

中巴经济走廊是“一带一路”6大经济走廊之一,而贸易畅通是“一带一路”建设的核心环节。研究中巴贸易关系演变及其影响因素、分析其贸易潜力,对推进“一带一路”建设具有重要的示范作用。论文从中巴贸易发展态势、商品结构、空间格局等方面揭示中巴贸易关系,运用随机前沿引力模型分析中巴贸易关系的主要影响因素、并探析其发展潜力,以期为推进中巴经济走廊建设提供科学支撑。研究发现：① 中巴贸易发展迅速,中对巴贸易顺差持续扩大;中国主要出口机械及电气设备等资本密集型产品,主要进口纺织原料及纺织制品等初级产品和劳动密集型产品。② 中国各省份与巴基斯坦的贸易合作存在明显的空间差异,东部沿海省份与巴贸易联系较紧密,西部各省份除新疆外与巴基斯坦贸易额均较小。③ 中国多数省份对巴贸易商品结构发生显著变动,其中,新疆、山东等进出口商品结构多元的省份的变动相对较小。④ 中国各省份的经济发展水平和市场规模对中巴贸易拉动较强;海运距离对中巴贸易规模有显著的负向影响;领土接壤为中巴组织边境贸易提供了良好条件;铁路和水运口岸的建设对中巴贸易具有积极影响。⑤ 中国各省份与巴基斯坦均有较大贸易潜力,内蒙古、云南、广西、陕西等省份的合作潜力更明显。     

基于遥感的江苏省大陆岸线岸滩时空演变

基于江苏省1984-2016年61景多源遥感影像数据和部分实测潮位、坡度数据,利用遥感技术结合改进的水边线方法提取了多时相的海岸线和平均大潮低潮线,研究了江苏省绣针河口至连兴河口大陆岸线岸滩的时空演变特征。结果表明：1984-2016年,由于海岸带开发,江苏省的海岸线整体以向海推进为主,自然岸线由458.24 km逐渐减少至166.74 km,人工岸线由163.66 km快速增加至598.74 km,大陆岸线长度由621.90 km增加至765.48 km。发生位置和长度变化的岸段中,淤长岸段长127.62 km,年均向海推进83.03 m;围垦岸段长401.21 km,年均向海推进87.63 m;冲刷岸段长71.17 km,年均离海后退10.81 m;围垦被侵蚀岸段长25.95 km,年均离海后退8.64 m。海岸线的空间变化导致江苏省沿海陆地面积净增加104332 hm²,其中由于围垦增加的陆地面积98520 hm²,围垦是陆地面积增加的主要原因。海岸线的离海后退主要发生在废黄河三角洲岸段,但是到2008-2016年,岸线的侵蚀范围已向南扩大至新洋河口至斗龙港岸段。受围垦活动及岸线侵蚀影响,江苏省潮间带坡度不断变陡,统计断面的平均坡度由1.4‰增加至1.9‰,其中废黄河三角洲岸段的中山河口至扁担河口岸段坡度最陡,基本在3~14‰之间;辐射沙洲陆岸岸段坡度最为平缓,但坡度也在逐渐陡化,由0.9‰增加至1.5‰。潮间带面积由271747 hm²减少至168645 hm²,减幅38%;潮间带平均宽度由5064 m减少至3096 m,减幅39%。     

黄河源玛曲段全新世风成黄土-古土壤序列风化成壤特征以及古气候演变

通过对青藏高原东北部黄河源开展广泛细致的野外考察,选择位于玛曲段黄河左岸第二级河流阶地（T2）之上,赋存典型风成黄土-古土壤序列的达尔琼东（DEQ-E）剖面进行系统采样。在室内对采集样品进行了磁化率、烧失量、吸湿水、粒度、土壤微形态、地球化学元素和光释光（OSL）测年等综合分析,结论表明：(1)黄河源玛曲段DEQ-E剖面地层序列由上至下依次为现代草甸土层（MS）-全新世中期古土壤层（S0）-全新世早期过渡性黄土层（Lt）-阶地漫滩相沉积层（T2-al）;(2)黄河源玛曲段DEQ-E剖面风成黄土-古土壤序列风化成壤强度呈现出全新世中期古土壤层（S0）>全新世早期过渡性黄土层（Lt）>现代草甸土层（MS）的变化特征;(3)黄河源全新世的古气候演变可分为3个阶段：全新世早期（11000 a BP—9000 a BP）,西风势力减弱,东亚夏季风逐步增强,气温趋于变暖,降水有所增加;全新世中期（9000 a BP—3100 a BP）,东亚夏季风作用强盛,气候整体温暖湿润;全新世晚期（3100 a BP以来）,东亚夏季风衰退,西风势力有所增强,导致气候转向干冷。该研究成果有助于理解青...     

The Imperial IRAS-FSC Redshift Catalogue

We present a new catalogue, the Imperial IRAS -FSC Redshift Catalogue (IIFSCz), of 60 303 galaxies selected at 60 μm from the IRAS Faint Source Catalogue (FSC). The IIFSCz consists of accurate position, optical, near-infrared and/or radio identifications, spectroscopic redshift (if available) or photometric redshift (if possible), predicted far-infrared (FIR) and submillimetre (submm) fluxes ranging from 12 to 1380 μm based upon the best-fitting infrared template. About 55 per cent of the galaxies in the IIFSCz have spectroscopic redshifts, and a further 20 per cent have photometric redshifts obtained through either the training set or the template-fitting method. For S(60) > 0.36 Jy, the 90 per cent completeness limit of the FSC, 90 per cent of the sources have either spectroscopic or photometric redshifts. Scientific applications of the IIFSCz include validation of current and forthcoming infrared and submm/mm surveys such as AKARI , Planck and Herschel , follow-up studies of rare source populations, large-scale structure and galaxy bias, local multiwavelength luminosity functions and source counts. The catalogue is publicly available at http://astro.imperial.ac.uk/~mrr/fss/ .     

Understanding the Mesozoic kinematic evolution in the Cameros basin (Iberian Range,NE Spain) from magnetic subfabrics and mesostructures

Analysis of anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) and brittle mesostructures (hydroplastic synsedimentary faults and tension gashes) is applied in this study in order to characterize the Mesozoic tectonic events in the Cameros basin (NW Iberian Range), formed between Tithonian and Albian times. Low-field AMS at room and low temperature (LF-AMS at RT and LF-AMS at LT, respectively) together with high-field AMS (HF-AMS) measurements allow separating ferro- and paramagnetic fabrics. The combination of LF-AMS at LT and HF-AMS torque measurements confirms the reliability of both procedures in terms of isolating the paramagnetic contribution to the AMS. Magnetic fabric results combined with the analyses of synsedimentary faults indicate a NW–SE extension direction during Aptian (and probably Barremian) times. This extension direction is perpendicular to the main extension direction (NE–SW) prevailing during early and late stages of basin evolution. It is also consistent with extension direction deduced from large-scale bending folds and tension gashes, developed after partial lithification. Cleavage development during Albian enhanced the orientation of the magnetic fabric in lithologies where the previous extensional magnetic lineation is coaxial with the expected one for compression.     

Observable consequences of kinetic and thermal AGN feedback in elliptical galaxies and galaxy clusters

We have constructed an analytical model of active galactic nuclei (AGN) feedback and studied its implications for elliptical galaxies and galaxy clusters. The results show that momentum injection above a critical value will eject material from low-mass elliptical galaxies, and leads to an X-ray luminosity, L _X, that is  ∝σ⁸⁻¹⁰  , depending on the AGN fuelling mechanism, where σ is the velocity dispersion of the hot gas. This result agrees well with both observations and semi-analytic models. In more massive ellipticals and clusters, AGN outflows quickly become buoyancy dominated. This necessarily means that heating by a central cluster AGN redistributes the intracluster medium (ICM) such that the mass of hot gas, within the cooling radius, should be  ∝ L _X(< r _cool)/[ g ( r _cool)σ]  , where   g ( r _cool)  is the gravitational acceleration at the cooling radius. This prediction is confirmed using observations of seven clusters. The same mechanism also defines a critical ICM cooling time of  ∼0.5 Gyr  , which is in reasonable agreement with recent observations showing that star formation and AGN activity are triggered below a universal cooling time threshold.     

南极乔治王岛阿德默勒尔蒂湾火山活动时空演化

在乔治王岛中部的阿德默勒尔蒂湾 ,凯勒半岛、于尔曼山嘴和埃内坎角是第三纪火山岩集中分布区。野外地质调查和同位素年代学研究表明 ,凯勒半岛发生了三期火山喷发 (三个火山喷发旋回 ) ,同时伴随着火山活动中心的不断北移 ;在第二期火山喷发之后 ,火口塌陷 ,形成破火山 ,之后在半岛北部又发生火山喷发 ,并向东迁移到于尔曼山嘴。因此凯勒半岛是一复活破火山 ,火山活动具有随时间迁移的特性。埃内坎角火山活动虽与上述两地区大致同时 ,但化学成分上不存在明显演化关系 ,应属另一相对独立的火山活动中心     

Testing the circumstellar disc hypothesis: a search for H2 outflow signatures from massive young stellar objects with linearly distributed methanol masers

The results of a survey searching for outflows using near-infrared imaging are presented. Targets were chosen from a compiled list of massive young stellar objects associated with methanol masers in linear distributions. Presently, it is a widely held belief that these methanol masers are found in (and delineate) circumstellar accretion discs around massive stars. If this scenario is correct, one way to test the disc hypothesis is to search for outflows perpendicular to the methanol maser distributions. The main objective of the survey was to obtain wide-field near-infrared images of the sites of linearly distributed methanol masers using a narrow-band 2.12-μm filter. This filter is centred on the  H₂ v = 1–0 S(1)  line; a shock diagnostic that has been shown to successfully trace CO outflows from young stellar objects. 28 sources in total were imaged of which 18 sources display H₂ emission. Of these, only two sources showed emission found to be dominantly perpendicular to the methanol maser distribution. Surprisingly, the H₂ emission in these fields is not distributed randomly, but instead the majority of sources are found to have H₂ emission dominantly parallel to their distribution of methanol masers. These results seriously question the hypothesis that methanol masers exist in circumstellar discs. The possibility that linearly distributed methanol masers are instead directly associated with outflows is discussed.