河北省粮食生产发展趋势及其地区差异

河北省2002年粮食作物播种面积为6484.4千hm2,其中小麦占37.8%,玉米39.7%;粮食、棉花、油料的种植比例为15.9:1.0:1.6。北部四地市粮食播面占全省的23.3%,南部七地市76.7%。2002年粮食总产2435.8万t,为1949年的5.2倍;粮食单产3756kg/hm2,为1949年的5.8倍;人均粮食362kg,为1949年的2.4倍。北部地区粮食总产占全省的17.2%,南部地区82.8%。据回归分析与双向差分建模分析,2010年粮食总产可达3087.5万t,粮食单产4478kg/hm2,人均粮食460kg。据灰关联分析,影响粮食总产的主要因子有:粮食单产、农副产品收购价格总指数(1978年=100)、农业机械总动力、农村用电量、农田化肥施用量与有效灌溉面积等。根据笔者预测,若2010年农业机械总动力达8989万kw,农村用电量240.8亿kwh,农田化肥施用量356.1万t,有效灌面4549.2千hm2,则其粮食单产可达4664kg/hm2;若2010年仍保持2000年小麦播面所占比例(0.387),玉米播面所占比例达0.439,则其单产可达4387kg/hm2。     

兰州市南北两山生态建设效应的遥感监测

利用1999年Landsat ETM+、2005年Landsat TM卫星影像和2009年“环境与灾害监测预报小卫星”影像提取兰州南北两山地区三期土地利用数据,将景观生态学的理论与兰州南北两山环境绿化工程的实际相结合,运用GIS分析、景观指数计算及数理统计等多种方法,对兰州南北两山地区1999—2009年的土地利用与景观格局动态变化进行分析。结果表明,10 a来兰州南北两山的土地利用变化主要表现为林地和建设用地的增加,草地和农田的减少;景观格局趋于破碎化,多样性增大,景观结构趋于多样化和均匀化。驱动力分析表明,人类活动和政策因素是导致该区土地利用和景观格局变化的主要原因。     

全国主要大中型金铜多金属矿区域地球化学数据库

利用Visual dBase5.5和Visual Basic语言完成了全国主要大中型金铜多金属矿区域地球化学数据库（CRGD1．0）系统的设计和开发,并将所收集到的约30个大中型金,铜,多金属矿田／床的基础地质资料,区域地球化学资料装入库中,形成了全国主要大中型金铜矿多金属矿区域地球化学数据库,同时还开发,设计了数据录入,数据浏览,数据查询,数据输出,格式转换等功能。     

Crustal structure beneath the Songpan—Garze orogenic belt

The Benzilan-Tangke deepseismic sounding profile in the western Sichuan region passes through the Song-pan-Garze orogenic belt with trend of NNE.Based on the travel times and the related amplitudes of phases in the record sections,the 2-D P-wave crustal structure was ascertained in this paper.The velocity structure has quite strong lateral variation along the profile.The crust is divided into 5layers,where the first,second and third layer belong to the upper crust,the forth and fifth layer belong to the lower crust.The low velocity anomaly zone gener-ally exists in the central part of the upper crust on the profile,and it integrates into the overlying low velocity basement in the area to the north of Ma‘erkang.The crustal structure in the section can be divided into 4parts:in the south of Garze-litang fault,between Garze-Litang fault and Xianshuihe fault,between Xianshuihe fault and Longriba fault and in the north of Longriba fault,which are basically coincided with the regional tectonics division.The crustal thickness decreases from southwest to northeast along the profile,that is ,from62km in the region of the Jinshajiang River to 52km in the region of the Yellow River.The Moho discontinuity does not obviously change across the Xianshuihe fault basesd on the PmP phase analysis.The crustal average velocity along the profile is lower,about 6.30 km/s.The Benzilan-Tangke profile reveals that the crust in the study area is orogenic.The Xianshuihe fault belt is located in the central part of the profile,and the velocity is positive anomaly on the upper crust,and negative anomaly on the lower crust and upper mantle.It is considered as a deep tectonhic setting in favor of strong earthquake‘s accumulation and occurrence.     

Influence of the Kunlun Mountain Ms8.1 Earthquake on Horizontal Crustal Deformation in the Sichuan and Yunnan Area

In order to track the space-time variation of regional strain field holistically(in a large scale) and to describe the regional movement field more objectively,the paper uses a nonlinear continuous strain model focused on extracting medium-low frequency strain information on the basis of a region with no rotation.According to the repeated measurements(1999～2001～2004) from GPS monitoring stations in the Sichuan and Yunnan area obtained by the Project of "China Crust Movement Measuring Network",and with the movement of 1999～2001(stage deformation background) as the basic reference,we separated the main influencing factors of the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake in 2001 from the data of 2001 and 2004,and the results indicate:(1) the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake has a discriminating effect on the Sichuan and Yunnan area,moreover,the deformation mode and background had not only certain similitude but also some diversity;(2) The movement field before the earthquake was very ordinal,while after the earthquake,order and disorder existed simultaneously in the displacement field;The displacement quantities of GPS monitoring stations were generally several millimeters;(3) The principal strain field before earthquake was basically tensile in an approximate EW direction and compressive in the SN direction,and tension was predominant.After the earthquake,the principal strain field in the Sichuan area was compressive in the EW direction and tensile in the SN direction,and the compression was predominant.In the Yunnan area,it was tensional in the NE direction and compressive in the NW direction,and tension was predominant;(4) The surficial strain before the earthquake was dominated by superficial expansion,the contractive area being located basically in the east boundary of Sichuan and Yunnan block and its neighborhood.After the earthquake,the Sichuan area was surface contractive(the further north,the greater it was),and south of it was an area of superficial expansion.Generally speaking,the Kunlun Mountain M-S8.1 earthquake played an active role in the accumulation of energy in the Sichuan and Yunnan area.Special attention shall be focused on the segment of Xichang-Dongchuan and its neighborhood.     

一级检查在航测外业调绘中的应用与探讨

结合工作实践,主要探讨了一级检查在1：5000及1：10000航测外业调绘工作中的应用,并对如何提高产品质量做一定的思考和研究。     

热液金刚石压腔(HDAC)高温高压实验平台简介

热液金刚石压腔(HDAC)高温高压实验平台是在金刚石压腔的基础上发展起来的一种高温高压原位实验模拟设备.近年来,HDAC技术已经在地质科研领域取得了大量成果,多篇重要研究成果被《Science》《Nature》等知名期刊刊发.本文介绍了HDAC高温高压实验平台结构与组成、实验优势和应用前景.     

内蒙古克什克腾旗黄岗山锡铜矿激电测量方法应用分析

内蒙古克什克腾旗黄岗山锡铜矿区北部及中部为第四纪冰川遗迹,在植被极其发育的地表之下为冰渍物、残坡积物等组成的碎石层,厚度多大于3m,因此开展地表地质工作有一定的难度。为提高找矿效果,开展了1∶1万激电测量工作。通过对激电异常的查证分析,在DJH-1号激电异常南西侧边界,燕山早期似斑状中细粒黑云母二长花岗岩与两侧石英闪长岩、花岗斑岩的内、外接触带附近发现有多期次岩浆侵入,矿化蚀变强烈,目前共圈定锡矿体10个、铜矿体8个;圈定的矿体和发现的激电异常具有较好的对应性,为进一步开展地质勘查工作提供了重要的依据。     

郯城县测量标志用地权属登记发证的思考

测量标志是我国经济建设和国防建设的基础设施,是国家的宝贵财富。对测量标志用地进行确权登记发证,是依法保护测量标志的重要基础工作。以郯城县测量标志用地权属登记发证工作为例,通过对测量标志用地权属的分析研究,制定不同的确权登记流程和方法,对测量标志用地确权登记发证具有借鉴意义。     

Risk mitigation and the social cost of carbon

The social cost of carbon – i.e., the marginal present-value cost imposed by greenhouse gas emissions – is determined by a complex interaction between factual assumptions, modeling methods, and value judgments. Among the most crucial factors is society's willingness to tolerate potentially catastrophic environmental risks. To explore this issue, the present analysis employs a stochastic climate–economy model that accounts for uncertainties in baseline economic growth, baseline emissions, greenhouse gas mitigation costs, carbon cycling, climate sensitivity, and climate change damages. In this model, preferences are specified to reflect the high degree of risk aversion revealed by private investment decisions, signaled by the large observed gap between the average rates of return paid by safe and risky financial instruments. In contrast, most climate–economy models assume much lower risk aversion. Given high risk aversion, the analysis finds that investment in climate stabilization yields especially large net benefits by forestalling low-probability threats to long-run human well-being. Accordingly, the social cost of carbon attains the markedly high value of $25,700 per metric ton of carbon dioxide in a baseline scenario in which emissions are unregulated. This value falls to just $4 per ton as the stringency of control measures is successively increased. These results cast doubt on the idea that the social cost of carbon takes on a uniquely defined, objective value that is independent of policy decisions. This does not, however, rule out the use of carbon prices to achieve the benefits of climate stabilization using least-cost mitigation measures.