多目标的地质大调查 ——21世纪勘查地球化学的战略选择

21世纪勘查地球化学面临发展问题.2001～2005年勘查地球化学以国家其基础性公益性地质工作为主导,以经济社会发展需求为动力,以资源与环境并重为方针,实施多目标的地质大调查,取得一系列重要成果,标志勘查地球化学进入全面发展阶段.这是勘查地球化学的战略选择.在现代科学技术取得最新成就起点上,构建理论体系、方法体系和质量体系,在各项工作中采取科学态度和积极有效措施,推动勘查地球化学不断达到新的高度.     

房山周口店车厂北沟泥石流特征及防治

泥石流是北京地区危害性严重的地质灾害之一,作为北京"7·21"特大暴雨灾害受灾最为严重的区县,房山区近现代泥石流一直比较活跃,灾情严重。为了查清房山区"7·21"特大暴雨后典型泥石流灾害发育和运动特征,本文选取了车厂村北沟作为样本,通过采用现场调查、槽探、岩土测试等方法,对主沟整体流域进行了系统研究。从而查清了形成区的物源类型和可移动物源储量,掌握了全流域的沟道形态特征;通过对堆积区堆积形态和堆积物调查分析,论述了主沟水动力特征和冲淤特征;根据相关规范,计算得出了泥石流的动力学参数。分析了泥石流形成机理,进行了危险性评价,提出了防治对策。     

浅谈21世纪中国城市的防洪战略

通过现代城市与历史发展进程和欧洲的比较,说明根据我国的自然特点和社会经济状况,城市防洪是一项长期艰巨的任务,21世纪我国的城市防洪战略只能是人与洪水协调共处.     

二维水质模型在武汉东湖引水工程中的应用

以"大东湖生态水网"工程的实施为契机,应用MIKE21软件对武汉东湖引水工程进行数值模拟.利用东湖2008年6月和7月实测的水深、TN和TP数据率定了模型参数(床底摩擦力和涡粘系数),并利用2010年7月实测数据建立水动力学模型和对流扩散模型,模拟了四种引水工况下模型运行35 d之后东湖水体中TN、TP浓度分布情况,并比较四种工况的模拟结果.结果表明:在设置两个引水口以及考虑风速影响的情况下,东湖水体中TN、TP浓度分布最均匀.对"大东湖生态水网"工程的实施具有一定的指导意义.     

本世纪初我国大陆7级大震危险性研究

地震大形势研究结果表明，我国大陆地区（含边境）１９９９年已进入为期１２年的相对平静幕，幕内可能发生３次７级地震，最大震级不超过７．２级。首发７级地震为２０００年６月８日缅甸７级（位于中缅边境）。预计第二个７级地震危险时间在２００５±０．５年。第三个在２００８年前后。分析了我国主要地震区强震概率增益，给出了３个危险地点。未来３年即２００１～２００３年是相对安全时段，我国大陆不会发生７级以上破坏性地震。２０１１～２０２０年可能进入新世纪第一个７级大地震相对活跃幕，预计该幕持续１０年， 可发生１０次７～７.６级大震。     

Channel change,bankfull and effective discharges on a vertically accreting,meandering, gravel‐bed river

Along the lower reaches of the Waipaoa River, New Zealand, cross‐section survey data indicate there was a 23 per cent decrease in bankfull width and a 22 per cent reduction in channel cross‐section area between 1948 and 2000, as the channel responded to increased inputs of fine (suspended) sediment following deforestation of the headwaters in late C19 and early C20. We determined the bankfull discharge within a ～39 km long reach by routing known discharges through the one‐dimensional MIKE 11 flow model. The model runs suggest that the bankfull discharge varies between ～800 and ～2300 m³ s^?1 and that the average recurrence interval is 4 ± 2 years on the annual maximum series; by contrast, the effective flow (360 m³ s^?1) is equaled or exceeded three times a year. The variability in bankfull discharge arises because the banks tend to be lower in places where flood flows are constricted than in reaches where overbank flow is dispersed over a wide area, and because scour has counteracted aggradation in some locations. There is no downstream variation in Shields stress, or in relative shear stress, within the study reach. Bankfull shear stress is, on average, five times greater than the shear stress required to initiate motion. At the effective discharge it is more than twice the threshold value. The effective discharge probably has more relevance than the bankfull discharge to the overall picture of sediment movement in the lower reaches of the Waipaoa River but, because width is constrained by the stability and resistance of the bank material to erosion during high flows that also scour the bed, the overall channel geometry is likely determined by discharges at or near bankfull. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Local Least-Squares Modification of Stokes’ Formula

The combination of Stokes formula and an Earth Gravity Model (EGM) for geoid determination has become a standard procedure. However, the way of modifying Stokes formula vary from author to author, and numerous methods of modification exist. Most methods are deterministic, with the primary goal of reducing the truncation bias committed by limiting the area of Stokes integration around the computation point, but there are also some stochastic methods with the explicit goal to reduce the global mean square error of the geoid height estimator stemming from the truncation bias as well as the random errors of the EGM and the gravity data. The latter estimators are thus, at least from a theoretical point of view, optimal in a global mean sense, but in a local sense they may be far from optimality.Here we take advantage of the error variance-covariance matrices of the EGM and the terrestrial gravity data to derive the modification parameters of Stokes kernel in a local least-squares sense. The solution is given for the unbiased type of modification of Stokes formula of Sjöberg (1991).     

Seasonal and spatial characteristics of seawater and sediment at Youngil Bay, southeast coast of Korea

The seasonal geochemical characteristics of the seawater and sediments and the major factors causing heavy metal contamination were investigated at the Youngil bay and the Hyungsan river estuary in the Southeast Coast of Korea, where a world-scale steel-industry complex (Pohang iron and steel industrial complex, POSCO) is located. The seasonal and spatial distribution characteristics of temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, and nutrients of the seawater were studied at 45 fixed stations, especially focusing on the river mouth area. Sediments at 27 stations were examined during winter and summer to determine the major controlling factors for the distribution of metals, using correlation matrix and R-mode factor analyses, and to evaluate the pollution status, using the modified geoaccumulation (I(geo)(')) index. Temperatures for the effluent from the POSCO located at the Hyungsan river mouth were 2-3 degrees C higher compared to other sampling areas, due to the thermal discharge from the POSCO. The DO concentration of the surface water at the Pohang old port was as low as 2-4 mg/L. In spring, the DO value at the Hyungsan river mouth was higher than 12 mg/L, by the mass multiplication of phytoplanktons at the river mouth where seawater temperature and nutrients concentrations were relatively high, resulting in the pH value of higher than 8.3. The nitrogen to phosphorus (N/P) ratios at the river mouth were 20-150 times higher compared to other areas, implying that the nitrogen loading into this semi-enclosed bay is significantly higher than phosphorus and the major nitrogen sources are not only the domestic sewage from the city but the industrial wastewater from the POSCO and other steel factories nearby. The phosphorus concentrations at the Pohang old port were shown 3-10 times higher than those at other stations, due to the inflow of pollutants generated from the nearby ships anchoring and the release of phosphate from the bottom sediment. Results from the sediment analysis showed that the major controlling factors for the distribution pattern of each metal are grain size and organic carbon (C(org)) content. Based on the factor analysis, Al, Fe, Cr, Li, and Pb were shown strongly correlated with the mean grain size (Mz), whereas Cd, Cu, Zn, and Sn with the C(org) content. Results from the fractionation of the sedimentary metals into lattice and labile fractions to characterize the mobility of sediment metals showed that the mineral lattice fraction was high in the order of Al=K>Cr>Li>Sr>Fe, while the labile fraction, which might be released to the overlying water, was in the order of Pb>Zn>Cd>Cu>Ca>Sn. Evaluation of the sediment pollution status by applying (I(geo)(')) of 13 metals showed Cd, Cu, and Zn as high as 1-3 range at the old port. Even though the overall marine pollution mainly by the world-class steel industrial complex in this semi-enclosed bay area studied does not currently pose a serious threat, due to the seawater circulation and the large influx of river discharge, the countermeasures to implement the sediments concentrated with heavy metals, especially at the old port with no seawater circulation, are still warranted for this coastal water environment.     

21kaBP青藏高原有远高于现代降水量的可能性吗?

古气候模拟特别对有关青藏高原的古气候模拟是比较复杂和困难的工作.可喜的是近年国内已有几位同志(陈隆勋等[1],刘晓东等[2,3])开展这项研究,取得了相当进展.本刊本期陈星、于革、刘健3同志《中国21kaBP气候模拟的初步试验》(以下称《陈文》)[4]也是这方面的有益尝试,他们采用改进的9层15波谱的AGCM大气环流模式和简化的陆地植被模型SSiB耦合,进行研究,得出结果,如认为东亚夏季风明显减弱、冬季风增强无疑是合适的,但关于青藏高原的模拟结果,笔者认为和地质记录矛盾较大,前人研究较普遍的认为末次冰盛期时,青藏高原夏季风衰弱,降水少于…