21世纪的石林旅游业

21世纪石林旅游会遇到良好的机遇和面临严峻的挑战.石林要在21世纪能做到可持续性发展旅游业,就必须严格保护资源和生态环境.还必须尽早做好如下工作:(1)建立新型的石林国家公园;(2)建立石林游客中心和石林博物馆,做好科普工作;(3)建立石林图书馆和信息中心;(4)加强石林研究中心和石林研究基金建设,不断为游客提供新知识;(5)加强新型、先进的服务设施建设,为游客进行知识创新、交流和商务活动提供良好条件;(6)不断对石林管理人员、职工和导游进行培训,不断更新他们的知识.     

挑战地球科学的新前沿 21世纪大洋综合钻探计划(OD21)

简要介绍即将实施的“21世纪大洋综合钻探计划”的目的、要求、设施等。     

潮流对老虎石海滩养护工程响应的数值预测

为研究老虎石海滩养护工程对老虎石浴场及周围岬湾的水动力环境的影响,利用MIKE 21建立工程区海域二维潮流数学模型,通过实测流速、流向对模型进行验证,将验证后模型参数运用到工程设计方案下潮流场的模拟,比较分析工程前后水动力环境的变化。潮流场比较结果表明,修建潜坝会使得工程及其附近的潮流场发生小幅变化,但对该海域整体的潮流动力环境影响甚微。工程后老虎石海域的潮流动力仍然很弱,对保存海滩上人工养护的泥沙是非常有利的。     

珠江口盆地惠州21-1构造二氧化碳地质封存数值模拟

二氧化碳(CO2)地质封存是减少温室气体向大气排放的有效措施之一,而CO2海上地质封存是其中的一个重要领域。以距离广东沿海约179 km的珠江口盆地惠州凹陷惠州21-1构造为例,建立三维地质模型,利用TOUGH2程序模块开展了CO2注入咸水层地质封存模拟研究;分析了CO2注入咸水层后的运移分布和溶解扩散情况以及地层压力变化特征;并且通过设置8个对比方案,进行了渗透率纵横比、盐度、渗透率、孔隙度等4个参数的敏感性分析。结果表明,所建的惠州21-1构造三维地质模型能够较好地描述CO2在注入层中的运移过程和分布状况;珠江组下部的局部盖层由于泥岩厚度较小且渗透率相对较高,存在局部封盖效果不佳现象;渗透率纵横比、储层孔隙度、渗透率等取值变化对封存效果影响较大,而地层水盐度在33~39范围变化,对CO2注入运移分布与溶解没有明显影响。     

北京平原区单次降水对地下水位影响的初步认识——以北京“7·21”特大暴雨为例

通过对北京市平原区600余眼监测井水位动态资料的分析,2012年北京\"7·21\"特大暴雨后水位有明显响应的监测井仅有34处,约占总数的6%左右,比例较低,同时范围较为集中,且基本全为较浅的潜水井。反映出本次大暴雨对本区地下水位的直接影响总体程度不深。通过对这些监测点的分布规律加以分析,它们主要集中分布在各大河的上游河道沿线区域,地层渗透性较好。并认为发生大面积的漫水,即来水量较大是使得地下水位响应明显的另一重要条件。并对单次降水对水位影响较小的原因进行了分析,认为主要是由于粘土类地层的阻隔、地表人为硬化及地层的沉积压实,尤其是差异性压实,都会影响流场的畅通性,阻碍地下水的垂向入渗及水平方向的补给,从而会导致降水对地下水位的影响程度被大大减弱。     

中国城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究进展

平原圩区地势低洼,下垫面类型多样,产汇流过程较为复杂,水文过程模拟和预报十分困难。为解决平原圩区洪水预报难题,建立考虑水田、旱地、林地、城市区与水域等多种下垫面类型的产汇流模型,利用MIKE 11 HD水动力模型模拟河道汇流过程,提出面向平原圩区复合下垫面条件的水文水动力耦合模型;并采用BP神经网络进行河道水位预报误差校正,以提高模型精度。选择广州市南沙蕉门河排涝片为研究区,检验耦合模型的水位预报精度,并以2023年“9·7深圳特大暴雨”为移置场景输入,模拟不同排涝措施对河道水位的影响。结果表明：模型能够较好地模拟研究区场次洪水的河道水位过程,率定期和验证期的平均Nash效率系数分别为0.86和0.91,10场洪水中有8场的最高水位模拟误差小于0.05 m;采用BP神经网络校正后所有场次洪水的Nash效率系数均大于0.9,满足洪水预报的精度要求。研究区面临“9·7深圳特大暴雨”场景时存在内涝风险,需提升圩内蓄洪排涝能力。

     

北京“7·21”特大暴雨诱发的地质灾害类型及其特征分析

降雨是突发地质灾害主要诱因之一,文章通过剖析降雨及其引发的地质灾害的典型案例,研究突发地质灾害时空分布特点及规律,为极端气象条件下的防灾减灾提供技术支持。文中对北京市有气象记录以来强度最大的“7·21”特大暴雨及其引发的地质灾害数据进行系统分析,分析不同类型的突发地质灾害数量、规模、灾情与降雨量及降雨强度之间的响应关系,重点研究了北京西部山区短时强降雨泥石流发生的阈值。结果显示,随着与降雨中心距离的增加,突发地质灾害的数量、种类及规模逐渐变少,降雨强度是诱发突发地质灾害的关键因素;不同类型突发地质灾害的激发雨量和雨强具有明显差别,泥石流、滑坡的触发雨量与雨强高于崩塌;北京山区诱发泥石流的累计降雨量阈值为187.4～257.2 mm,小时雨强阈值为51.2～62 mm。基于研究结果将“7·21”触发泥石流的实时数据与以往基于平均雨强的泥石流临界雨量进行对比,对北京基于平均雨强的临界雨量模型进行了修正,为提高地质灾害的预警预报精度提供技术保障。     

Seasonal and spatial characteristics of seawater and sediment at Youngil Bay, southeast coast of Korea

The seasonal geochemical characteristics of the seawater and sediments and the major factors causing heavy metal contamination were investigated at the Youngil bay and the Hyungsan river estuary in the Southeast Coast of Korea, where a world-scale steel-industry complex (Pohang iron and steel industrial complex, POSCO) is located. The seasonal and spatial distribution characteristics of temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), pH, and nutrients of the seawater were studied at 45 fixed stations, especially focusing on the river mouth area. Sediments at 27 stations were examined during winter and summer to determine the major controlling factors for the distribution of metals, using correlation matrix and R-mode factor analyses, and to evaluate the pollution status, using the modified geoaccumulation (I(geo)(')) index. Temperatures for the effluent from the POSCO located at the Hyungsan river mouth were 2-3 degrees C higher compared to other sampling areas, due to the thermal discharge from the POSCO. The DO concentration of the surface water at the Pohang old port was as low as 2-4 mg/L. In spring, the DO value at the Hyungsan river mouth was higher than 12 mg/L, by the mass multiplication of phytoplanktons at the river mouth where seawater temperature and nutrients concentrations were relatively high, resulting in the pH value of higher than 8.3. The nitrogen to phosphorus (N/P) ratios at the river mouth were 20-150 times higher compared to other areas, implying that the nitrogen loading into this semi-enclosed bay is significantly higher than phosphorus and the major nitrogen sources are not only the domestic sewage from the city but the industrial wastewater from the POSCO and other steel factories nearby. The phosphorus concentrations at the Pohang old port were shown 3-10 times higher than those at other stations, due to the inflow of pollutants generated from the nearby ships anchoring and the release of phosphate from the bottom sediment. Results from the sediment analysis showed that the major controlling factors for the distribution pattern of each metal are grain size and organic carbon (C(org)) content. Based on the factor analysis, Al, Fe, Cr, Li, and Pb were shown strongly correlated with the mean grain size (Mz), whereas Cd, Cu, Zn, and Sn with the C(org) content. Results from the fractionation of the sedimentary metals into lattice and labile fractions to characterize the mobility of sediment metals showed that the mineral lattice fraction was high in the order of Al=K>Cr>Li>Sr>Fe, while the labile fraction, which might be released to the overlying water, was in the order of Pb>Zn>Cd>Cu>Ca>Sn. Evaluation of the sediment pollution status by applying (I(geo)(')) of 13 metals showed Cd, Cu, and Zn as high as 1-3 range at the old port. Even though the overall marine pollution mainly by the world-class steel industrial complex in this semi-enclosed bay area studied does not currently pose a serious threat, due to the seawater circulation and the large influx of river discharge, the countermeasures to implement the sediments concentrated with heavy metals, especially at the old port with no seawater circulation, are still warranted for this coastal water environment.     

相山居隆庵21号带铀矿床水文地质条件及矿坑涌水量估算

居隆庵菱形断块是相山地区重要铀资源基地,21号带地处居隆庵菱形断块的西部,水文地质条件属简单-中等类型,相对其它矿床更为复杂。笔者采用狭长水平坑道法和水文地质比拟法对该矿床进行矿坑涌水量估算,其钻孔单位涌水量0.1L·(s-1·m-1),预测矿坑涌水量29m3·h-1。研究显示,矿床主要含水带(构造及裂隙)富水性弱且不均,导通性不强;而地下水补给条件好,水压高。在矿床开采过程中应加强监测,及时判断可能出现的涌水量变化情况,保证生产安全。