旱涝周期和海震调温假说的新证据

据中新社兰州10月21日电,中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所蓝永超研究员根据代表黄河上游流域径流动态变化的唐乃亥水文站1920年至2004年的径流系列统计资料,以及此间数十个气象站四十余年的降水观测数据,分析得出的初步结论显示,从上世纪20年代初到90年代,黄河大体上经历了5个枯水期和4个丰水期。每个丰、枯水期段持续的时间长短不一,枯水期持续时间为4~15年,平均为9年;丰水段持续时间为7~14年,平均为9.25年。总体上黄河上游每个丰、枯水周期平均持续时间基本相同,一个完整的丰枯循环周期大约在18年左右[1]。18.6年是典型的潮汐周期。月…     

Environmental impacts of groundwater abstraction in Neresnica brook catchment (Slovak Republic)

The main goal of the research was a detailed study of the consequences, caused by groundwater abstraction in the Neresnica brook catchment (Slovak Republic) since the water supply source Podzamcok was put in operation in 1973. This goal was supplemented by research of groundwater origin, groundwater chemical composition and its changes. Field measurements, analyses of water samples and statistical evaluation of hydrometeorological data were used to gain and process the data. It was showed that overexploitation of groundwater in the catchment resulted in distinct diminishing of stream flow discharges in low flow periods, groundwater level dropping and disturbance of hydraulic connection between surface and groundwater. Groundwater quality was quite stable during the whole period of observation. Groundwater modeling was proposed to be used for the re-estimation of utilizable groundwater amounts in the catchment.     

Late Cenozoic evolution of epithermal gold metallogenic provinces in Kyushu, Japan

Kyushu Island, Japan, is located at the junction of the Southwest Japan arc and the Ryukyu arc. There are two major late Cenozoic epithermal gold-silver provinces in Kyushu, which are termed the Northern and Southern provinces. The provinces are characterized by: 1) Pliocene volcanism dominated by calc-alkaline andesite, followed by Quaternary volcanism including extrusion of both calc-alkaline and tholeiitic magmas; 2) formation of extensional grabens; 3) Pliocene to Pleistocene mineralization, which was dominated by abundant low sulfidation (LS) epithermal deposits with a few high sulfidation (HS) examples. The two epithermal gold-silver provinces have evolved differently since about 5 Ma; the Northern province has exhibited diminished hydrothermal activity from the Pliocene to Pleistocene, whereas the Southern province has witnessed increased hydrothermal activity mainly in easterly and northerly directions. Changes of tectonic setting from the Pliocene to Pleistocene account for the variable trends in epithermal gold deposit formation. Westward oblique subduction of the Philippine Sea plate beneath the Southwest Japan arc caused development of the Hohi graben and arc-related volcanism at about 6 Ma. This was associated with widespread LS mineralization in and surrounding the Hohi graben, as is represented by the Bajo and Taio deposits. The subduction of the relatively buoyant Kyushu-Palau ridge during the early Pliocene strengthened the coupling between the slab and overriding Ryukyu arc, leading to polygenetic andesite volcanism with associated HS (Kasuga, Iwato, and Akeshi) and LS (Kushikino) mineral deposits forming in the Southern province. A change of the subduction direction of the Philippine Sea plate, from west to north-northwest in the early Pliocene, increased the orthogonal convergence rate between the Southwest Japan arc and the Philippine Sea plate, resulting in a decrease of volcanic and hydrothermal activity in the Hohi graben of the Northern province. The more northerly subduction of the Philippine Sea plate shifted the locus of the Kyushu-Palau ridge subduction northward, resulting in underplating of the older (85–60 Ma), negatively buoyant Amami basin oceanic slab in the Southern province, rather than continued subduction of the young (27–15 Ma), buoyant Shikoku basin slab. This replacement caused steepening of the slab angle and slab-rollback in the Southern province, which was associated with regional extension, an eastward shift of the Ryukyu volcanic front, and development of the Kagoshima and Shimabara grabens, as well as the Okinawa trough. Rhyolite and basalt volcanism, in addition to andesite volcanism, have occurred since 2 Ma in the area of the Ryukyu back arc; coincident LS mineralization at Hishikari and Ohkuchi was affiliated with the rhyolite volcanism. Another change of the subduction direction of the Philippine Sea plate to the northwest occurred at 2–1 Ma. The forearc sliver of the Southwest Japan arc shifted westward, in association with right-lateral strike-slip faulting along the Median tectonic line, due to the increase of the westward convergence rate. This shift resulted in shortening and cessation of graben development in the Hohi area, restricting the subsequent volcanism and related hydrothermal activity to the central part of the graben.     

地下圆形衬砌隧道对沿线地震动的影响(I):级数解

利用波函数展开法,给出了地下圆形衬砌隧道对入射平面P波和SV波散射问题的一个级数解答,当衬砌与半空间介质相同时,该解答退化为文献中的无衬砌隧道的解答。级数解答为进一步定量研究隧道对入射平面P波和SV波的放大作用以及入射波长、入射角度、隧道直径和衬砌刚度等参数对隧道沿线地震动的影响奠定了理论基础。     

低纬高原地区降水量资源年际变化的特征时间尺度及其时空演变

应用三维数据的时间小波变换方法，分析研究了低纬高原地区降水量资源在年际变化上的特征时间尺度及其时空演变。结论为：低纬度高原地区降水量资源在年际变化上的特征时间尺度分别约为2a、7a和15a。2a、78和158特征时间尺度的较大振幅能量活动区，分别主要位于滇西北到滇东南、滇东北到滇西南和滇中一带。与2a特征时间尺度相对应的较大振幅能量活动中心纬度的降水量，表现出了明显的东西向波动的时间演变特征，而与78和158特征时间尺度相对应的较大振幅能量活动中心纬度的降水量，则表现出了在东西向较为稳定少变的时间演变特征。与2a特征时间尺度相对应的较大振幅能量活动中心经度的降水量，也表现出了明显的南北向波动的时间演变特征，而与7a和15a特征时间尺度相对应的较大振幅能量活动中心经度的降水量，则表现出了一种明显向南移动的时间演变趋势。     

枯水频率分析线型的比较研究

概述了枯水频率分析的研究进展,采用PE3分布、Gumbel分布、GL分布、GP分布和Weibull分布等5种线型拟合枯水流量系列,所有分布均采用线性矩法估计参数。统计试验方法用于比较上述分布拟合枯水流量的优劣,结果表明在变差系数较小时,二参数分布能获得较优的结果；当变差系数较大时,三参数分布的模拟精度高于二参数分布。基于实测枯水流量系列的比较研究结果证明了统计试验的结论,且在水文系列变差系数较小的流域能获得较高的模拟精度。     

水文变异的滑动F识别与检验方法

针对传统F检验法只能用于已知变异点的检验,而无法用于变异点的识别问题,本文提出了滑动F识别与检验法。该法首先利用传统F检验法对序列逐点进行检验,找出满足F计算值大于临界值的所有可能变异点,然后选择F计算值达到最大值的那一点作为最可能变异点。利用该法对潮白河水资源分区45年年径流量序列进行了分析,并从物理成因角度对该检验结果进行了确认。结果表明滑动F 识别与检验法具有较好的检验效果,检验结果可信度较高。     

利用MODIS fAPAR傅立叶时间序列分析研究植被光合作用活动对净辐射和降雨的响应：青藏高原个例研究

气候变化对植被动力学有非常大的影响。为了定量描述气候变化对植被的影响，文章利用MODIS fAPAR 数据和NCEP 的净辐射和降雨再分析数据对青藏高原地区气候变化对植被的影响进行了时间序列分析。研究所用的数据时间跨度为2000年至2005年。首先利用NCEP 再分析数据建立了干旱度因子的时间序列，为了与MODIS fAPAR 具有相同的时间采样间隔，由NCEP的日净辐射和日降雨量得到每8天的平均净辐射和8日降雨的和。根据一定时间间隔的净辐射与降雨量的比可以用来衡量相对于可利用水分的剩余能量，因此该比值也是干旱灾害的度量。其次，对MODIS fAPAR 的傅立叶时间序列分析提供了两个植被光合作用对干旱相应的因子，即fAPAR的年平均值及其年振幅值。在时间和空间尺度上对植被光合作用活动与干旱指数之间的关系进行了定量分析。对湿年和干年之间的响应差异进行了比较。研究表明较干地区对气候变化的响应最为显著。分析应该扩展到更长的时间跨度以便更加有效地在时间和空间尺度上评估气候变化对植被动力学的影响。     

呼伦湖水面蒸发及水量平衡估计

为重建水文资料缺乏的呼伦湖流域的水文序列,本研究基于长期的气象观测记录,采用彭曼公式估计了湖泊的水面蒸发,并建立一个两参数月水量平衡模型模拟湖周的入流,通过水量平衡计算,模拟了湖泊月水量、水位变化,重建了42年(1961-2002)的呼伦湖区水文序列。模拟的水位变化趋势与实际比较接近,误差较小,模拟精度较好。所重建的42年呼伦湖水文序列,可为该区域的水资源评价管理提供科学依据。     

固结过程中孔隙水压力计算中的吉布斯(Gibbs)现象及其消除

一维固结过程中，孔隙水压力的计算在整个计算中占有重要的位置，其计算结果的准确性对于固结度及固结系数的确定均有一定的影响。目前，孔隙水压力的计算均采用级数计算，而由于级数计算中Gibbs现象的存在，使得孔隙水压力的计算中会出现振荡。针对这种情况，本文以误差函数作为基础，对孔隙水压力的计算进行了分析，发现在一定的精度范围内，采用误差函数可以有效地消除由于Gibbs现象带来的振荡。