人工神经网络和决策树模型在滑坡易发性分析中的性能对比

机器学习模型广泛应用于区域性滑坡易发性分析。模型的选择关系到评价结果的可信度、准确率和稳定性。现有滑坡易发性分析模型对比研究侧重模型的预测精度。模型的稳定性和数据量敏感性对机器学习模型的性能评估同样非常重要。本文以福建省南平市蔡源流域为研究区,以四川省绵阳市北川县为验证区,从预测精度、稳定性和数据量敏感性3个方面深入对比BP（Back Propagation）人工神经网络模型和CART（Classification and Regression Tree）决策树模型在滑坡易发性分析中的效果,主要结论如下:① 在逐渐增加一定数量训练样本的过程中,BP人工神经网络模型预测精度的增长率更高。在蔡源流域内,当训练样本数量增加10 000时,BP人工神经网络模型的预测精度上升5.22%,CART决策树模型的预测精度上升2.11%。② BP人工神经网络的预测精度高于CART决策树模型,且较为稳定。在100组数据集上,BP人工神经网络模型验证集预测精度的均值和验证集滑坡样本预测精度的均值分别为81.60%和84.86%,高于CART决策树模型的72.97%和76.59%。与此同时,BP人工神经网络模型对应预测精度的标准差分别是0.32%和0.37%,小于CART决策树模型的0.35%和0.67%。③ BP人工神经网络模型分析的滑坡易发区相比CART决策树模型,更接近实际滑坡的空间分布。最后,北川县的验证实验也出现了相同的现象。     

CR21气象仪的CS-1型串行接口转换器

CR 21气象仪的SC 1串行接口与标准的RS 232接口并不兼容,难以并入滑坡遥测系统。对此特研制CS-1型串行接口转换器。它能使SC 1串行接口电平与标准的RS 232接口电平彼此转换。由此在微型计算机专用软件支持下,CR 21气象仪便能自动而又准确地向滑坡遥测系统传输数据。     

Kalman滤波理论在滑坡监测中的应用

以Ｋａｌｍａｎ滤波理论为基础，提出将Ｋａｌｍａｎ滤波方法应用到形变监测数据处理中，导出了各种形式的形变监测网的状态方程和观测方程，并给出一些简单实用的滤波所需初值的选取方法。最后，以重庆市嘉陵江边的镇江寺滑坡为例，进行了实例分析。结果表明：Ｋａｌｍａｎ滤波方法简单、快速，处理的资料具有较好的连续性，所提方法具有较好的实用价值。     

金龙山地区滑坡研究

金龙山地区位于四川省雅砻江二滩水电站库首左岸。区内海拔1000—2700米;重点研究区海拔<1730米,面积近1.3平方公里。本区滑坡顺层发育,以蠕滑方式为主,成条成群分布,新老俱全,厚度各异(巨厚—表层),规模不一。控制坡体蠕滑和滑动的主要是层面(或似层面)、层间错动带和中缓倾角裂隙。据滑坡活动状况的不同,将全区分为三个滑坡区:Ⅰ区是多级古滑坡区(方量约200万立方米);Ⅱ区是蠕滑区(方量约2000万立方米);Ⅲ区是浅-表层残坡积层滑坡区。     

单基准线向量解算法在GPS变形监测中的应用

GPS测量目前在三峡库区变形监测应用较为广泛,但常规数据处理中,网平差这一步骤导致了因某点测量误差偏大而导致的整个监测网中其他监测点测量误差偏大,为解决这一问题,介绍了单基线向量解算法,并利用该方法对长屋滑坡2005年3月-2007年3月的监测点数据进行解算,提出了该方法能减少测量误差和内业工作量,并能运用于实际工程。     

Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment under future climate and land cover changes: A case study from southwest China

There is no doubt that land cover and climate changes have consequences on landslide activity, but it is still an open issue to assess and quantify their impacts. Wanzhou County in southwest China was selected as the test area to study rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility under the future changes of land use and land cover (LULC) and climate. We used a high-resolution meteorological precipitation dataset and frequency distribution model to analyse the present extreme and antecedent rainfall conditions related to landslide activity. The future climate change factors were obtained from a 4-member multi-model ensemble that was derived from statistically downscaled regional climate simulations. The future LULC maps were simulated by the land change modeller (LCM) integrated into IDRISI Selva software. A total of six scenarios were defined by considering the rainfall (antecedent conditions and extreme events) and LULC changes towards two time periods (mid and late XXI century). A physically-based model was used to assess landslide susceptibility under these different scenarios. The results showed that the magnitude of both antecedent effective recharge and event rainfall in the region will evidently increase in the future. Under the scenario with a return period of 100 years, the antecedent rainfall in summer will increase by up to 63% whereas the event rainfall will increase by up to 54% for the late 21st century. The most considerable changes of LULC will be the increase of forest cover and the decrease of farming land. The magnitude of this change can reach + 22.1% (forest) and –9.2% (farmland) from 2010 until 2100, respectively. We found that the negative impact of climate change on landslide susceptibility is greater than the stabilizing effect of LULC change, leading to an over decrease in stability over the study area. This is one of the first studies across Asia to assess and quantify changes of regional landslide susceptibility under scenarios driven by LULC and climate change. Our results aim to guide land use planning and climate change mitigation considerations to reduce landslide risk.     

Potential seismic landslide hazard and engineering effect in the Ya’an-Linzhi section of the Sichuan-Tibet transportation corridor,China

The Sichuan-Tibet transportation corridor is located at the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, where the complex topography and geological conditions, developed geo-hazards have severely restricted the planning and construction of major projects. For the long-term prevention and early control of regional seismic landslides, based on analyzing seismic landslide characteristics, the Newmark model was used to carry out the potential seismic landslide hazard assessment with a 50-year beyond probability 10%. The results show that the high seismic landslide hazard is mainly distributed along large active tectonic belts and deep-cut river canyons, and are significantly affected by the active tectonics. The low seismic landslide hazard is mainly distributed in the flat terrain such as the Quaternary basins, broad river valleys, and plateau planation planes. The major east-west linear projects mainly pass through five areas with high seismic landslide hazard: Luding-Kangding section, Yajiang-Xinlong (Yalong river) section, Batang-Baiyu (Jinsha river) section, Basu (Nujiang river) section, and Bomi-Linzhi (eastern Himalaya syntaxis) section. The seismic action of the Bomi-Linzhi section can also induce high-risk geo-hazard chains such as the high-level glacial lake breaks and glacial debris flows. The early prevention of seismic landslides should be strengthened in the areas with high seismic landslide hazard.©2023 China Geology Editorial Office.     

门源M6.9地震诱发地质灾害特征研究

2022年1月8日发生的门源M6.9地震诱发了崩塌、滑坡、砂土液化、地裂缝等多种同震地质灾害。通过对门源M6.9地震地质灾害进行现场调查,得出了地质灾害的分布特征和各类型地质灾害的主要特点,分析了地震地质灾害不发育的原因,并对地震地质灾害的长期效应进行了分析预测。研究结果表明：门源地震诱发地质灾害主要分布在震中附近;崩塌、落石总体规模较小,滑坡多为岩质滑坡,且以冰碛物和表层岩土体的溜滑为主。受表层土体冻结和孔隙水压力消散的影响,饱和砂土液化沿较窄的地裂缝呈串珠状分布,喷出物多为粉细砂。地震形成了4条左旋左阶斜列的地表破裂带,并在极震区内形成了大量的地裂缝。断层破碎带对地震动的阻隔作用、覆盖层薄、地表土冻结可能是造成本次地震地质灾害总体不发育的主要原因;地震产生的大量地裂缝导致斜坡和堆积体的稳定性减弱,在耦合集中降雨、冻融作用等因素后可能诱发滑坡灾害,松散堆积于沟床处的崩滑物作为物源,可能会增加地震影响区泥石流灾害的风险。     

地震与强降雨作用下堆积体滑坡变形破坏机理及防治方案分析

位于西南山地堆积体滑坡常受到地震和强降雨的双重作用,查明此类滑坡变形破坏机理是地质灾害防治和风险防控的基础。文章的研究对象是鲜水河断裂带附近的炉霍县马居滑坡。研究表明,地震作用对位于斜坡地带堆积体滑坡体结构损伤明显,不但使滑坡整体稳定性下降,还促使坡体内裂隙大量发育,利于降雨入渗,进一步恶化滑坡的水文地质条件。强降雨形成的大规模洪水和泥石流下切坡脚沟道,牵引滑坡体整体向下。长历时强降雨入渗影响坡体稳定性,且在降雨结束后较长时间持续影响坡体稳定性。因此,对此类滑坡防治的对策应考虑坡脚防护和抗滑支挡设置。在对防治方案的有效性分析后,表明防护方案在极端条件下仍然能保障安全性,达防治和风险管控的目的。     

浑河断裂带地质灾害发育特征及其成因机制

浑河断裂带是辽宁抚顺地区最为重要的一条活动断裂。为了深入调查沿浑河断裂带地质灾害发育情况,了解灾害形成与先存断裂之间的关系,为同类型灾害的防治和预警提供科学依据。本文采用现场调查方法,结合地面变形监测资料,厘清了浑河断裂带灾害类型和发育规律,剖析了断裂带灾害的形成机理。研究结果表明：断裂隐伏区地裂缝发育,主要沿浑河断裂带分支断裂展布,裂缝延伸长度300～2 400 m;其成因是抚顺城区南部采矿活动诱发了先存软弱断裂面局部拉裂、张开,进而向地表扩展、贯通,形成地裂缝。在断裂延伸的基岩地区沿断裂破碎带及影响带发育小型滑坡,主滑方向与断裂走向垂直或大角度斜交;其形成机制与岩体内部发育的结构面有关,尤其是顺坡向优势结构面的发育,其与坡体耦合形成易滑结构体,在长期降雨作用下,结构面软化、贯通及岩土体加速蠕滑,最终形成滑坡。