近半个世纪来气候变暖背景下黄河流域潜在蒸散量的变化(英文)

According to the meteorological observation data of 72 stations from 1960 to 2010 in the Huanghe (Yellow) River Watershed, China, the long-term variations of potential evapotranspiration, calculated in the modified Penman-Monteith model of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, were presented, as well as the meteorological causes for the decrease of potential evapotranspiration were discussed. Since 1960, temperature has risen significantly and potential evapotranspiration a decreasing trend, which indicated the existence of "Evaporation paradox" in the Huanghe River Watershed. This phenomenon was not consistent spatially or temporally with the increase of temperature, potential evapotranspiration decreased in spring, summer and winter, mainly over most parts of Shanxi and Henan, and some parts of Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi. During the recent half century, the trends of temperature and potential evapotranspiration were negatively correlated at most of the stations, while precipitation and potential evapotranspiration exhibited a contrary trend. Calculated in multiple regressions, the contribution to potential evapotranspiration change of related meteorological factors was discussed, including mean pressure, maximum and minimum temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity and average wind speed. The decrease of wind speed in the Huanghe River Watershed may be the dominating factor causing potential evapotranspiration decreasing.     

近50年来淮河流域极端降水的时空变化及统计特征(英文)

Based on the daily precipitation data of 27 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2009 in the Huaihe River Basin, spatio-temporal trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in this area are analyzed. Annual maximum series (AM) and peak over threshold series (POT) are selected to simulate the probability distribution of extreme precipitation. The results show that positive trend of annual maximum precipitation is detected at most of used stations, only a small number of stations are found to depict a negative trend during the past five decades, and none of the positive or negative trend is significant. The maximum precipitation event almost occurred in the flooding period during the 1960s and 1970s. By the L-moments method, the parameters of three extreme distributions, i.e., Generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), Generalized Pareto distribution (GP) and Gamma distribution are estimated. From the results of goodness of fit test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, AM series can be better fitted by GEV model and POT series can be better fitted by GP model. By the comparison of the precipitation amounts under different return levels, it can be found that the values obtained from POT series are a little larger than the values from AM series, and they can better simulate the observed values in the Huaihe River Basin.     

土地生态安全资源型关键地段识别——以黄河三角洲惠民县为例

资源型关键地段对于维护和控制区域土地生态系统安全具有关键性作用。通过构建一套资源型关键地段识别指标体系,在以行政区为基本识别单元的基础上,识别出行政单元内地类斑块尺度的资源型关键地段。将惠民县划分为6类地域,即关键地段、关键地段保护区、一般地段、干扰地段、干扰区及交汇区,分别占全县总面积的6.39%、19.70%、50.61%、7.93%、15.37%和6.89%。资源型关键地段所占比重小,反映出地区整体生态环境水平较低;一般地段基本以耕地为主,具有随季节交替变化、物种单一、稳定性差等特点;交汇区具有保护需求强烈和受干扰程度明显的双重特性,在现实土地利用与管理过程中需得到高度重视。     

黄河三角洲湿地柽柳林生长动态密度结构的响应特征

为了阐明滨海湿地不同密度柽柳(Tamarix chinensis)林的生长动态,探索滨海湿地柽柳林的密度合理性,在黄河三角洲莱州湾南岸的山东昌邑海洋生态特别保护区内,利用标准木树干解析法,对10a生的3种密度(2400株/hm2、3 600株/hm2和4400株/hm2)的柽柳林地上生物量、林木生长动态和基径分布特征进行研究.结果表明,3种密度林分的地上生物量、树高生长量和林木基径生长过程差别较大.随着林分密度增大,林木单株生物量和基径减小,但单位面积林分生物量增加;树高、基径的速生期都出现滞后现象.3种密度林分基径分布的偏度系数(SK)差别较大;密度为3 600株/hm2林分的SK值为0.085,接近正态分布,林分密度结构和基径分布较为合理;密度为2 400株/hm2和4 400株/hm2林分的SK值分别为-0.842和0.303,偏离正态分布,林分密度结构不合理.密度为2 400株/hm2林分的峰度系数(K)为0.017,林木生长相对整齐;密度为3 600株/hm2和4 400株/hm2林分的K值相差不大;密度因素对林木分化作用较小.若不考虑10a间的林木间伐利用,该区柽柳人工造林合理的初植密度建议为3 600株/hm2(株行距约2.0 m×2.0 m).     

辽河三角洲湿地生态服务功能价值评估研究

采用国际通用的市场价值法、成本法、影子工程法和替代法,对辽河三角洲湿地服务功能价值进行评估研究,诠释了保护湿地资源的重大意义。     

CHANGES OF RIVER BED PATTERN OF A LOWLAND RIVER: EFFECT OF NATURAL PROCESSES OR ANTHROPOGENIC INTERVENTION?

GPR and aerial surveys were conducted to study changes of channel pattern in the lower course of the Obra River (western Poland). The river is an example of an intensive anthropogenic transformation, however, the origin of the river pattern changes in its lower course is not obvious. The GPR measurements were done using a georadar MALÅ ProEx equipped with a shielded 250 MHz antenna. A 3D analysis of the GPR data supported with lithologic information indicated traces of a multi‐channel pattern. A variable orientation of sediment layering within channel bars and differences in channels depth and width pointed to changes of direction of the river bed migration. Analysis of aerial photographs and a satellite image indicated that only a few of the channels inferred from GPR could be discerned. The reason could be the more than 1 m thick fine sands layer covering all the alluvial structures. Analysis of historical maps from the eighteenth and the nineteenth centuries showed that 250 years ago the Obra was a meandering river. The maps illustrate also several meander cutoffs and decreased wetlands surface. The following transformations of the river bed pattern were discerned: 1. From braided to meandering channel pattern which could be a natural process caused by climatic and sediment transport rate changes that was also observed in case of other lowland rivers. 2. From meandering to sinuous pattern with channel islands and then to sinuous with oxbow lakes. However, further research is needed to study reasons and timing of the observed changes.     

基于小波分析的汾河河津站径流与输沙的多时间尺度特征

基于汾河流域19个气象台站1959~2005年的月均降水量、河津站的径流量和输沙量资料,借助小波分析方法研究了降水、径流与输沙序列的多时间尺度特征及它们的耦合关系。结果表明:降水、径流与输沙量具有2~4a、14~18 a左右2个不同尺度的周期变化,且三者的主周期基本一致,即3 a和16 a;3 a尺度上,3个要素曲线的正、负位相交替频繁,突变点较多,且曲线变化除个别时段发生紊乱外基本上保持同步性;16 a尺度上,突变点较少,3条曲线的正、负位相交替相应减少且出现不同步现象。降水、径流与输沙量曲线发生趋势变化及出现不同步现象的原因包括自然因素和人类活动,而后者是其主要影响因素。     

基于不同DEM数据源的数字河网提取对比分析——以韩江流域为例

基于HYDRO1K、SRTM3和ASTER GDEM三种DEM数据,利用BTOPMC地形子模型提取韩江流域河网,并作对比分析。结果表明:①SRTM3提取的河网精度最高,HYDRO1K相对最低。②DEM的垂直精度对提取的河网精度起控制作用。ASTER GDEM的水平分辨率较高,但垂直精度不如SRTM3,因而提取的河网精度不如SRTM3。③HYDRO1K提取大尺度流域河网具有一定的精度,但在地势平坦区域的效果较差,HY-DRO1K不宜用来提取小尺度流域河网。④由DEM提取的数字河网精度与当地的地面坡度以及处理DEM的填洼算法有关。     

岷江上游潜在性泥石流堰塞湖危害及判识

汶川地震造成泥石流形成条件的改变,其次生灾害堰塞湖的危害已开始显现。如何对震后潜在性泥石流堰塞湖进行判识,成为迫切需要解决的问题。选取岷江上游映秀至汶川段为研究区,通过分析震后泥石流形成条件的变化、典型泥石流堰塞湖的危害及松散物质储量,选取潜在性泥石流堰塞湖的判识指标,利用模糊物元可拓模型,建立潜在性泥石流堰塞湖的综合判识模式。通过判识,研究区形成泥石流堰塞湖可能性高的一级支沟有17条,主要集中分布在映秀镇至草坡乡段,此段将是今后受堰塞湖危害的高危地段。     

珠江三角洲地区城中村土地供求的动态均衡分析

土地问题是我国城中村研究的核心问题。在对珠江三角洲地区城中村进行实地调研的基础上,就城中村主体的行为特征、城中村土地供应和需求的基本特征进行了总结。以理论推导与现实印证相结合的方法,基于经济学中的供求理论,对城中村土地供求变化进行了动态均衡分析。从村庄"内部人"的视角,考察在各种内外部因素变动(征地与留用地,城中村改造,村民城市化转型)的情况下,城中村主体如何实现土地的供应和需求均衡。总体上,城中村土地变化表现为土地需求被动地追随(因征地而发生的)供应减少而下降,以实现供求均衡。具体而言,在城中村形成阶段,供求均衡借助乡村工业化,即农业用地转为工业用地而实现;在城中村存续阶段,存在土地供求的逐渐失衡;在城中村改造阶段,供求均衡最终必须通过城市化,即村民转为市民而实现。