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31.
A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters. 相似文献
32.
Using an idealized ocean general circulation model, we examine the effect of “mixing hotspots” (localized regions of intense
diapycnal mixing) predicted based on internal wave-wave interaction theory (Hibiya et al., 2006) on the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean. Although the assumed diapycnal diffusivity in the
mixing hotspots is a little larger than the predicted value, the upwelling in the mixing hotspots is not sufficient to balance
the deep-water production; out of 17 Sv of the downwelled water along the southern boundary, only 9.2 Sv is found to upwell
in the mixing hotspots. The imbalance as much as 7.8 Sv is compensated by entrainment into the surface mixed layer in the
vicinity of the downwelling region. As a result, the northward transport of the deep water crossing the equator is limited
to 5.5 Sv, much less than estimated from previous current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys. One plausible explanation
for this is that the magnitude of the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean has been overestimated by these
observations. We raise doubts about the validity of the previous ocean general circulation models where diapycnal diffusivity
is assigned ad hoc to attain the current magnitude suggested from current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys. 相似文献
33.
南海地形、底质特征与鱼类配布的研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
讨论了南海海区的地理位置、地形地貌以及底质的特征,从而了解了南海渔业资源的特点;认识到南海渔业区的划分是与地形地貌、底质特点相互呼应;由此更好地对南海鱼类在该海域的生活习性以及它们的分布进行研究. 相似文献
34.
A comprehensive numerical study on the three-dimensional structure of a turbulent jet in crossflow is performed. The jet-to-crossflow velocity ratio (R) varies in the range of 2 - 16; both vertical jets and inclined jets without excess streamwise momentum are considered. The numerical results of the Standard two-equation k-ε model show that the turbulent structure can be broadly categorised according to the jet-to-crossflow velocity ratio. For strong to moderate jet discharges, i.e. R> 4, the jet is characterized by a longitudinal transition through a bent-over phase during which the jet becomes almost parallel with the main freestream, to a sectional vortex-pair flow with double concentration maxima; the computed flow details and scalar mixing characteristics can be described by self-similar relations beyond a dimensionless distance of around 20-60. The similarity coefficients are only weakly dependent on R. The cross-section scalar field is kidney-shaped and bifurcated, vvith distinct double concentr 相似文献
35.
36.
Hydrodynamic modeling of flushing time in a small estuary of North Bay, Florida, USA 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Freshwater fraction method is popular for cost-effective estimations of estuarine flushing time in response to freshwater inputs. However, due to the spatial variations of salinity, it is usually expensive to directly estimate the long-term freshwater fraction in the estuary from field observations. This paper presents the application of the 3D hydrodynamic model to estimate the distributions of salinity and thus the freshwater fractions for flushing time estimation. For a case study in a small estuary of the North Bay in Florida, USA, the hydrodynamic model was calibrated and verified using available field observations. Freshwater fractions in the estuary were determined by integrating freshwater fractions in model grids for the calculation of flushing time. The flushing time in the North Bay is calculated by the volume of freshwater fraction divided by the freshwater inflow, which is about 2.2 days under averaged flow conditions. Based on model simulations for a time series of freshwater inputs over a 2-year period, a power regression equation has been derived from model simulations to correlate estuarine flushing time to freshwater inputs. For freshwater input varying from 12 m3/s to 50 m3/s, flushing time in this small estuary of North Bay changes from 3.7 days to 1.8 days. In supporting estuarine management, the model can be used to examine the effects of upstream freshwater withdraw on estuarine salinity and flushing time. 相似文献
37.
38.
Darío R. Minkoff Mauricio Escapa Flix E. Ferramola Silvio D. Maraschín Jorge O. Pierini Gerardo M.E. Perillo Claudio Delrieux 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2006,69(3-4):403
The Bahía Blanca Estuary (38° 50′ S, and 62° 30′ W) presents salt marshes where interactions between the local flora (Sarcocornia perennis) and fauna (Chasmagnathus granulatus) generate some kind of salt pans that alter the normal water circulation and condition its flow and course towards tidal creeks. The crab–vegetation dynamics in the salt marsh presents variations that cannot be quantified in a reasonable period of time. The interaction between S. perennis plant and C. granulatus crab is based on simple laws, but its result is a complex biological mechanism that causes an erosive process on the salt marsh and favors the formation of tidal creeks. To study it, a Cellular Automata model is proposed, based on the laws deduced from the observation of these phenomena in the field, and then verified with measurable data within macroscale time units. Therefore, the objective of this article is to model how the interaction between C. granulatus and S. perennis modifies the landscape of the salt marsh and influences the path of tidal creeks. The model copies the basic laws that rule the problem based on purely biological factors.The Cellular Automata model proved capable of reproducing the effects of the interaction between plants and crabs in the salt marsh. A study of the water drainage of the basins showed that this interaction does indeed modify the development of tidal creeks. Model dynamics would likewise follow different laws, which would provide a different formula for the probability of patch dilation. The patch shape can be obtained changing the pattern that dilates. 相似文献
39.
40.
激光雷达技术(Light Detection and Ranging,LiDAR)是近十年来快速发展并得到广泛应用的测量手段。美国地质调查局(USGS)、美国国家宇航局(NASA)以及美国地质学会(AASG)已经开始讨论建设全美高分辨率激光雷达数据库。我国正处于东部城市化、土地利用巨变、西部无图而经济高速发展的时期,国家、地方、企业生产单位迫切需要现实性强、精确度高、比例尺大的地形数据产品。满足这些要求的主要途径是采用激光雷达这一先进的测绘技术。我们建议国家、地方与企业统筹规划,各司其职,努力建设我国的激光雷达基础数据库。本文通过Stoker等(2008)介绍的第二届全美激光雷达战略研讨会上论述的激光雷达技术特点、激光雷达数据的科学需求与应用以及商业化运作问题,结合我国目前的激光雷达发展趋势、测绘数据需求以及土地利用变化监测等科学问题,简析激光雷达技术在我国的应用前景。 相似文献