Application of bivariate extreme value distribution to flood frequency analysis: a case study of Northwestern Mexico

In Mexico, poverty has forced people to live almost on the water of rivers. This situation along with the occurrence of floods is a serious problem for the local governments. In order to protect their lives and goods, it is very important to account with a mathematical tool that may reduce the uncertainties in computing the design events for different return periods. In this paper, the Logistic model for bivariate extreme value distribution with Weibull-2 and Mixed Weibull marginals is proposed for the case of flood frequency analysis. A procedure to estimate their parameters based on the maximum likelihood method is developed. A region in Northwestern Mexico with 16 gauging stations has been selected to apply the model and regional at-site quantiles were estimated. A significant improvement occurs, measured through the use of a goodness-of-fit test, when parameters are estimated using the bivariate distribution instead of its univariate counterpart. Results suggest that it is very important to consider the Mixed Weibull distribution and its bivariate option when analyzing floods generated by a␣mixture of two populations.     

Maximum-likelihood ambiguity resolution based on Bayesian principle

 Based on the Bayesian principle and the fact that GPS carrier-phase ambiguities are integers, the posterior distribution of the ambiguities and the position parameters is derived. This is then used to derive the maximum posterior likelihood solution of the ambiguities. The accuracy of the integer ambiguity solution and the position parameters is also studied according to the posterior distribution. It is found that the accuracy of the integer solution depends not only on the variance of the corresponding float ambiguity solution but also on its values. Received: 27 July 1999 / Accepted: 22 November 2000     

最大树法模糊聚类分析在台湾地区地震预报中的应用

运用最大树法模糊聚类分析,将台湾地区1936年至1989年间的35个地震事件分成了三类6型,并运用聚类结果对1990年至2000年的11个地震事件进行检验,得出了比较合理的检验结果,最后用聚类结果对台湾地区2001年的地震趋势进行了预测,得出了与其它手段一致的预报结果.     

关于南国冰臼群成因的商榷之二

南国冰臼群分布区大量冰川堆积、冰川条痕石及变形砾石的发现，再次有力地证明是“冰臼”不是“壶穴”的正确结论，由冰川漂砾经融冻作用形成的“石海”，与化学风化作用产生的花岗岩“石蛋”地貌特征，有天渊之别，不应混为一谈；边滩是由河流冲积物组成，不能与基岩冰床相提并论；圆滚水钻与急流旋涡及风蚀作用，形成的动力学性质、方向和方式完全不同，不该阴错阳差；节理、构造只影响冰臼的形态和发育程度，不是控制形成的动力学性质、方向和方式完全不同，不该阴错阳差；节理、构造只影响冰臼的形态和发育程度，不是控制冰臼的发育部位，不致于是非不辨，南国地区古冰川遗迹的大量发现，证明距今约二三百万年的第四纪早期确实曾发生过大规模的古冰川运动，为争论了半个多世纪的中国东部中低山区有无第四纪冰川问题，从此画上一个圆满的句号。     

质疑粤西北的冰川遗迹

从地貌、沉积物、第四纪地层关系、古气候、古环境等方面论证了广东封开-怀集-带所谓的冰川谷、冰蚀三角面、悬谷、角峰、刃脊、冰半、鼻山尾、冰碛砾石、蛇形丘以及近百万年来发生过3次冰期，是既不符合地学基础理论也不符合野外实际，所以是不确实的，那里没有第四纪冰川遗迹。     

最大熵谱法在华北地震活动幕式结构分析中的应用

应用定性和定量相结合的方法对华北地区第三、第四活动期Ｍ３≥６地震进行幕式结构分析，发现两个活动期的时间进程、应变释放的图象方面比较相似，由此推断第四活动期应变能大释放阶段已过、目前处于调整阶段。估计第四活动期可能持续到２０２０年前后。     

山西地震带历史地震序列的极大熵谱分析

综述了极大熵谱分析的原理及Burg递推算法,选取应变能∑E_1~(1/2)地震活动度∑A_1为采样序列,对三个时段的资料进行了极大熵谱分析。结果表明;两个序列所得结果较为一致。山西地震带中强震活动和华北中强震活动同步变化,且主要受321年和347年显著周期控制。其35年和66年短周期活动与太阳活动和地球自转31年和60年长周期较接近,表明地震活动在总体上受太阳活动与地球自转速率变化控制,短周期成份反映了发生地震地区应力场能量积累和释放的特点。     

评定设计基准地震动的地震构造法

阐述了核电厂选址工作中,确定设计基准地震动的“地震构造法”的构成及其基本原则,就其在国际原子能机构(IAEA)颁布的新旧两版“核安全导则”(1979年版、1991年版)中的异同进行了对比分析,并探讨了“地震构造法”在实际工作中存在的问题,以及对它的改进     

Non-classical types of loess

The purpose of this contribution is to describe the sequence of physical and chemical processes resulting in the sediment-type named loess, a fine-grained sediment deposit of universal occurrence. Owing to historical causes, loess has been (and still is) implicitly linked to glacial/periglacial environments among most naturalists. However it is known today that most eolian dust is deflated from tropical deserts. Hence, that sequence of processes is more comprehensive than the former narrow cold scenario. Six examples of different “non-classical” cases (from South America and Europe) that fit well to the loess definition are developed: 1) volcanic loess in Ecuador: pyroclastic eruptions/valley wind/mountain praire/silica structuring; 2) tropical loess in northeastern Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay: deflation of river and fan splays/savanna/iron sesquioxide structuring; 3) gypsum loess in northern Spain: destruction of anhydrite/gypsiferous layers in a dry climate/valley wind/Saharian shrub peridesert/gypsum structuring; 4) trade-wind deposits in Venezuela and Brazil: deflation in tidal flats/trade wind into the continent/savanna/iron hydroxide structuring; 5) anticyclonic gray loess in Argentina: continental anticyclone on plains/anti-clockwise winds and whirls/steppe/carbonate structuring. All these non-classical types conform to the accepted loess definitions and they also share the most important field characteristics of loess such as grain size, friability, vertical or sub-vertical slopes in outcrops, subfusion and others. Other cases can probably be recognized when systematically scrutinized.     

A numerical study on 2-D compressive wave propagation in rock masses with a set of joints along the radial direction normal to the joints

An explosion in a borehole or an accidental explosion in a tunnel will generate a two-dimensional (2-D) compressive wave that travels through the surrounding rock mass. For the problem of 2-D compressive wave propagation in a rock mass with parallel joints in the radial direction normal to the joints, parametric studies on the transmission ratio and the maximum rebound ratio are performed in universal distinct element code. The variation of the transmission ratio with the ratio of joint spacing to wavelength is generalized into a characteristic curve, which can be used as a prediction model for estimating the transmission ratio. The relationship between the maximum rebound ratio and the influence factors is obtained in charts. The charts can be used as a prediction model for estimating the maximum rebound ratio. The proposed prediction models for estimating the transmission ratio and the maximum rebound ratio are applied to a field explosion test, Mandai test in Singapore. The minimum possible values of peak particle velocity (PPV) at the monitoring points are estimated by using the proposed prediction model for estimating the transmission ratio along the radial direction normal to the joints. On the other hand, the maximum possible values of PPV are estimated by using the proposed prediction model for estimating the maximum rebound ratio along the same radial direction. The comparison shows a good agreement between the field-recorded PPVs and the estimated range of PPVs given by the minimum possible PPVs and the maximum possible PPVs at the monitoring points in Mandai test. The good agreement between the estimated and field-recorded values validates the proposed prediction models for estimating peak particle velocity in a rock mass with a set of joints due to application of a compressive wave at the boundary of a tunnel or a borehole.