Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand. I: Methodology and hazard investigation

Volcanic eruptions typically produce a number of hazards, and many regions are at risk from more than one volcano or volcanic field. So that detailed risk assessments can be carried out, it is necessary to rank potential volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk. As it is often difficult to make accurate predictions regarding the characteristics of future eruptions, a method for ranking hazards and events has been developed that does not rely on precise values. Risk is calculated individually for each hazard from each source as the product of likelihood, extent and effect, based on the parameters order of magnitude. So that multiple events and outcomes can be considered, risk is further multiplied by the relative probability of the event occurring (probability_e) and the relative importance of the outcome (importance_o). By adding the values obtained, total risk is calculated and a ranking can be carried out.This method was used to rank volcanic hazards and events that may impact the Auckland Region, New Zealand. Auckland is at risk from the Auckland volcanic field, Okataina volcanic centre, Taupo volcano, Tuhua volcano, Tongariro volcanic centre, and Mt. Taranaki volcano. Relative probabilities were determined for each event, with the highest given to Mt. Taranaki. Hazards considered were, for local events: tephra fall, scoria fall and ballistic impacts, lava flow, base surge and associated shock waves, tsunami, volcanic gases and acid rain, earthquakes and ground deformation, mudflows and mudfills, lightning and flooding; and for distal events: tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, poisonous gases and acid rain, mudflows and mudfills, climate variations and earthquakes. Hazards from each source were assigned values for likelihood, with the largest for tephra fall from all sources, earthquakes and ground deformation, lava flows, scoria fall and base surge for an Auckland eruption on land, and earthquakes and ground deformation from an Auckland eruption in the ocean. The largest values for extent were for tephra fall and climate variation from each of the distal centres. However, these parameters do not give a true indication of risk. In a companion paper the effect of each hazard is fully investigated and the risk ranking completed.     

面向对象的极高海拔区水体及冰川信息提取——以珠穆朗玛峰国家级自然保护区核心区为例

极高海拔地区多为河流发源、冰川发育地,由于地形起伏强烈,且野外考察验证工作困难,传统的遥感信息提取方法很难保证该地区水体及冰川的提取精度。本文基于ASTER影像,运用面向对象的图像信息自动分析方法,对珠穆朗玛峰国家级自然保护区核心区的水体及冰川信息进行了提取研究。为保证信息提取的准确度,将数字高程模型(DEM)及其衍生数据(坡度、坡向),归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据,及有助于区分水体、冰川与其他地物的相关指数(冰雪指数NDSII)及波段运算结果(b1-b3)、(b3/b4)等,分别作为一个波段叠加到原始图像中,使之成为对目标地物光谱特征的有益补充。并对不同类型的水体及冰川进行多级、多尺度分割,以满足其对分割尺度的不同要求。分割完成后,综合考虑目标地物的光谱特征、纹理特征、空间结构特征,根据各特征指数的直方图信息,设定合适的阈值,建立了各水体及冰川类型信息提取的知识规则,并结合实地调查对信息提取的精度进行验证,改进了ASTER遥感影像自动快速提取极高海拔区水体及冰川信息的实用模型。     

Modeling unusual eruptive behavior of Mt. Etna,Italy, by means of event bush

One of the best-studied volcanoes of the world, Mt. Etna in Sicily, repeatedly exhibits eruptive scenarios that depart from the behavior commonly considered typical for this volcano. Episodes of intense explosive activity, pyroclastic flows, dome growth and cone collapse pose a variety of previously underestimated threats to human lives in the summit area of the volcano. However, retrospective analysis of these events shows that they were likely caused by the same very sets of premises and starting conditions as “normal” eruptions, yet combined in an unexpected, probably unique, way. To cope with such unexpected consequences, we involve an approach of artificial intelligence developed specially for needs of the geosciences, the event bush. Scenarios inferred from the event bush fit the observed ones and allow to foresee other low-probability events that may occur at the volcano. Application of the event bush provides a more impartial vision of volcanic phenomena and may serve as an intermediary between expert knowledge and numerical assessment, e.g., by means of Bayesian Belief Networks.     

长白山天池火山区长白-敦化剖面结晶基底的探测和研究

时间项分析法中,应用广义最小二乘法进行反演,对长白山天池火山区岩浆系统的长白—敦化(L1)剖面的Pg波到时进行了计算处理,得到了Pg波时间项及基底速度值;取上部地壳的介质平均速度为4．5km/s,经反演求得了各点的深度值,给出了长白山天池火山区结晶基底的厚度分布。结晶基底厚度一般在2．0km左右,而在长白山天池下方结晶基底最厚处接近4．0km;在万宝和敦化附近各有一不太明显的凹陷,其原因可能与在这两个位置处有几条断裂穿过有关。     

东昆仑西端布喀达坂峰地区二叠纪孢粉型化石的发现

在东昆仑西端布喀达坂峰地区二叠纪地层中首次发现陆相孢粉与海相疑源类化石一起保存的孢粉—疑源类化石组合。经对两个样品较为丰富的孢粉型化石研究后发现,上部组合以裸子植物花粉占优势,双囊无肋花粉最多,可与塔里木盆地的卡伦达尔组的孢粉组合做粗略的比较,但组合中出现了时代偏晚的Ephedripites及Taeniae-sporites,因此,研究区马尔争组中段复理石地层的时代当为中二叠世—晚二叠世。     

A Simulating Experiment in the Process of Soil Erosion on Bare Land in Mt. Tanakami

In order to understand the process of surface erosion and acquire basic data of conditions on hillslope without vege tation, a sprinkling experiment is conducted on a bare slope in Mt. Tanakami in the central part of Japan. Based on the mea surements of runoff, mean soil erosion depth, and sediment yield, etc. , the results suggest the following characteristics in the process of surface erosion in the experimental area. (1) The occurrence of sediment discharge is interrupted; (2) Surface runoff is a saturated overland flow; (3) The mean soil erosion depth is thick compared with other areas in Mt. Tanakami;(4) Sediment discharge process is detachment- limited.     

南迦巴瓦峰地区土地结构及土地资源的合理利用

从土地空间结构、土地数量结构、土地质量结构、土地利用结构和土地演替结构等方面对南迦巴瓦峰地区土地结构进行分析,结果表明：区土地结构独特,垂直分异现象明显,宜农、宜牧、宜林土地资源的数量和质量不平衡。在此基础上对土地利用中存在的主要问题及其合理开发利用与保护进行了探讨,并提出该区合理持续利用土地资源的重要措施为提高现有耕地单位面积产量、保护森林资源和加强草场建设。     

Radiocarbon redating of contaminated samples from a tropical volcano: the Mansion ‘Series’ of St Kitts,West Indies

Heavy rainfall and dense vegetation on tropical volcanoes produce abundant carbonized wood in pyroclastic deposits, in addition to easy contamination of this wood by root systems and soluble humic material. Because the physical nature of the charcoal varies, some samples are more prone to contamination. Two independent studies of the same volcano, Mt Liamuiga on St Kitts in the Lesser Antilles, sometimes using samples from the same carbonized tree, yielded a systematic difference in radiocarbon ages. An exchange of samples and a re-investigation of three physically distinct types of charcoal yielded the following results. Rare, hard, dense charcoal, lacking contamination, which had yielded a spurious age of 2860 years bp, was redated at 1845±58 years bp. Common soft, friable charcoal with good cellular structure proved to be susceptible to contamination. A field decontamination technique utilized by one group seems significant as it yields older ages than when only routine laboratory pre-treatment was used, indicating that the latter technique only partly removes the dried and hard residue produced by the decomposition of modern plant rootlets. A previous date of 24870 years bp obtained from powdery charcoal in a horizon beneath the Mansion Series contradicted ages older than 41000 years bp from common friable charcoal in the lower Mansion Series. The soft powdery charcoal was re-investigated using a sample collected a few centimeters from the original, although field decontamination of this sample was not possible, more extensive laboratory treatment yielded an age of ca. 43000 years bp, again proving that routine laboratory pretreatments are inadequate. A revised geochronology for the Mansion Series is described and a cautionary discussion is presented for the benefit of investigators using radiocarbon ages to date volcanic deposits.     

陕西北秦岭中段构造应力场的初步研究

于华北板块南缘的北秦岭中段,在系统测量微断层的位移参数的基础上,通过采用滑动矢量拟合法,获得了该区自新生代以来的三期构造应力场的平均应力张量。三期应力场的方向及性质分别为:(1)以280°—310°方向拉伸为主的松弛期;(2)以305°—336°方向挤压为主的压缩期;(3)以294°—340°方向拉伸为主、辅以21°—68°方向挤压的现代扩张期。研究表明,最新一期即第三期构造应力场的特征与华北板块的区域构造应力场特征是基本一致的     

平顶山金矿床黄铁矿化学成分特征及其找矿意义

本文依据21件黄铁矿样品的电子探针成分分析数据,讨论了Au,Ag,Fe,Co,Ni,S,As,Sb,Cu,Te,Sn,Se等13个元素在黄铁矿中的含量和S/Fe,As/Sb比值在时间和空间上的变化规律。对矿体上的黄铁矿单晶体进行的能谱扫描电镜成分分析,Fe,S,As等成分在黄铁矿内部呈环带状分布,由晶体中心向边缘,它们的含量呈脉动式变化,反映成矿热液活动频繁。