Spatio-temporal changes in land cover and aquatic macrophytes of the Danube floodplain lake

The aquatic vegetation of ?í?ov Lake in the Danube floodplain, which is listed in the Ramsar Convention, was investigated to address three main questions: (1) how have landscape composition and the structures of the lake and its buffer zone changed from the mid-20th century; (2) how have species richness and the abundance of the aquatic macrophyte assemblage in this lake ecosystem changed over the last 34 years; and (3) which landscape metrics can best explain these temporal changes for floating-leaved macrophytes? Two methodological approaches, remote sensing and botanical field surveys, were applied. Historical (1949, 1970, 1990) and contemporary (2006) aerial photographs were analysed to determine land cover. Landscape configuration and structure were analysed using eight landscape metrics selected in advance to measure spatio-temporal changes and the fragmentation of the lake ecosystem and its corresponding buffer zone. The species diversity, abundance and distribution of true aquatic macrophytes were surveyed eleven times in five survey stretches between 1973 and 2007.At the landscape level, a decrease in the area covered by floating-leaved macrophytes, as well as an increase in open water surface and fragmentation of the land cover classes in the lake ecosystem, were recorded from 1949 to 2006. Overall, 30 true aquatic macrophytes were found from 1973 to 2007. Species richness did not change considerably, but the abundance of aquatic species fluctuated over the years. Three groups of true aquatic vegetation, based on common structural characteristics, were found in 1973–1983, 1989–2002, and 2004–2007 over the last 34 years. The landscape metrics NP, PD, LPI, and SHDI, which all express patterns of landscape fragmentation mostly indicate temporal changes in floating-leaved macrophytes.     

Evaluating geological heritage: correspondence on Ruban, D.A. ‘Quantification of geodiversity and its loss’ (PGA, 2010, 121(3): 326-333)

This article comments on the recent paper in this journal by Ruban (2010) which presented a simple quantitative scheme for the calculation of landscape geodiversity and its application to evaluating geodiversity between different locations. This comment article highlights some conceptual and methodological issues in the set-up and application of Ruban's scheme, and suggests that geodiversity as a measure can only be meaningful if it is set within a wider context of landscape and geological conservation and management. Some examples of conservation strategies in Great Britain are described in order to illustrate this wider context.     

Geologic time scales in modern books: a failure of standardization?

This is a response to the Correspondence by Knight (Proceedings of the Geologists’ Association, 2011) entitled ‘Evaluating geological heritage’. In this response I suggest that geodiversity can be evaluated (1) conceptually as a natural treasure within landscape, cultural, and historical contexts and (2) numerically as a number of geosite types (not as a number of geosites). These points of view are not conflicting, but mutually profitable. Moreover, broad context and perception of geodiversity can be involved in its quantification. Geodiversity is viewed as a dynamic idea, which modifications will be reflected in every study of the regional geological heritage.     

华北太行山区地壳各向异性的接收函数证据

采用具有任意方向对称轴的横向各向同性介质系统,探讨了各向异性介质中接收函数表现出的横波分裂、能量偏离等特征,并系统剖析了各向异性介质对称轴方位角、倾角以及各向异性层位分布对接收函数方位变化花样的影响.太行山隆起地区是研究华北克拉通构造运动以及动力学过程的重要场所.我们以该地区JJJX台为例,介绍了利用远场接收函数研究台站下方地壳各向异性特征的方法.反演结果表明,该台站下方存在明显的来源于中、上地壳的各向异性,浅层2.4 km以内表现出强度约为10%的裂隙成因的慢轴型各向异性,裂隙面沿NNE方向展布,与该地区断层走向一致;中地壳表现出强度约为8%的晶体成因的快轴型各向异性,太行山新生代的隆起是形成晶体优势排列方向的一种可能的动力机制.     

Multi‐process Late Quaternary landscape evolution modelling reveals lags in climate response over small spatial scales

Landscapes evolve in complex, non‐linear ways over Quaternary timespans. Integrated geomorphological field studies usually yield plausible hypotheses about timing and impact of process activity. Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) have the potential to test and falsify these landscape evolution hypotheses. Despite this potential, LEMs have mainly been used with hypothetical data and rarely to simulate the evolution of an actual landscape. In this paper, we use a LEM (LAPSUS: LandscApe ProcesS modelling at mUlti dimensions and scaleS) to explore if it is possible to test and falsify conclusions of an earlier field study on 50 ka landscape evolution in Okhombe Valley, KwaZulu Natal, South Africa. In this LEM, five landscape processes interact without supervision: water driven erosion and deposition, creep, solifluction, biological weathering and frost weathering. Calibration matched model results to three types of qualitative fieldwork observations: individual process activity over time, relative process activity over time and net landscape changes over time. Results demonstrate that landscape evolution of the Okhombe valley can be plausibly simulated. A particularly interesting and persistent feature of model results are erosional and depositional phases that lag climatic drivers both by decades, and by several ka within a few hundred meters. The longer lag has not been reported for this spatial scale before and may be an effect of slow landscape‐soil‐vegetation feedbacks. The combined modelling and fieldwork results allow a more complete understanding of these responses to climate change and can fill in hiatuses in the stratigraphical record. Suggestions are made for methodological adaptations for future LEM studies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PI算法用于川滇-安达曼-苏门答腊地区7.0级以上强震危险性预测的回溯性检验

作为一个中长期地震预测方法,基于复杂系统统计物理的图象信息学PI算法近年来广受关注．针对7级以上强震成组和突发交替的川滇地区,考虑将与其构造和地震活动关系密切,且强震频发的安达曼-苏门答腊地区作为统一的强震预测研究区,使用PI算法进行MW7.0及以上预测ldquo;目标震级rdquo;的地震危险性分析．计算中使用了1973年以来的NEIC目录,采用10年尺度的地震活动ldquo;异常学习rdquo;时段和3年尺度ldquo;预测时间窗rdquo;,对预测效果进行了ROC检验．回溯性研究显示,PI预测效果较好,表明将川滇-安达曼-苏门答腊地区作为统一的7以上强震PI预测研究区在统计上具有合理性．从统计物理角度,研究区组合前后的各态遍历性曲线显示,组合后的研究区对PI的适用程度虽不优于单独考虑川滇地区,但优于安达曼-苏门答腊地区．PI图象显示,2008震前可能存在中长期尺度的ldquo;前兆性rdquo;地震活动异常．      

东亚夏季风的年际变化及其对环流和降水的影响

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis geopotential height (GHT) and wind at 850 hPa, GHT at 500 hPa, precipitation rate, sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation observations from more than 600 stations nationwide in June–August from 1951 to 2006, and focusing on the East Asia-West Pacific region (10°–80°N, 70°–180°E), interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and its correlations with general circulation and precipitation patterns are studied by using statistical diagnostic methods such as 9-point high pass filtering, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, composite analysis and other statistical diagnosis, etc. It is concluded as follows: (1) EOF analysis of SLP in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows the existence of the zonal dipole oscillation mode (APD) between the Mongolia depression and the West Pacific high, and APD index can be used as an intensity index of EASM. (2) EOF analysis of GHT anomalies at 500 hPa in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows that the first EOF mode is characterized with an obvious meridional East Asian pattern (EAP), and EAP index can also be used as an EASM intensity index. (3) The composite analysis of high/low APD index years reveals the close correlation of APD index with EAP at 500 hPa (or 850 hPa). The study shows an obvious opposite correlation exists between APD index and EAP index with a correlation coefficient of −0.23, which passes the confidence test at 0.10 level. (4) Both APD and EAP indexes are closely correlated with precipitation during flood-prone season in China and precipitation rate over the East Asia-West Pacific region. The significant correlation area at 5% confidence level is mainly located from the southern area of the Yangtze River valley to the ocean around southern Japan, and the former is a positive correlation and the latter is a negative one. Foundation: Cooperative Project funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China, No.2007DFB20210; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.90502003; JICA China-Japan Technical Cooperative Project “China-Japanese Cooperative Research Center on Meteorological Disasters”. Author: Yu Shuqiu, Associate Professor, specialized in climate and climate change.     

An integrated lake-catchment approach for determining sediment source changes at Aqualate Mere,Central England

This paper raises fundamental questions about the sole use of paleolimnological techniques to identify sediment sources and develop catchment management plans. The concept of an integrated lake: catchment framework was established 30 years ago, yet paleolimnologists occasionally fail to appreciate the dynamics of the contributing catchment. This is especially critical when the predominant source of sediment accumulating in a lake is allochthonous. In this paper we argue that a detailed appraisal of catchment sources and investigation of historical documentary evidence is needed to identify and evaluate the relative significance of sediment sources. We used such an approach at Aqualate Mere, Shropshire, UK. Mineral magnetic and radionculide signatures of potential catchment sources and accumulating lake sediments were compared in an attempt to match the sources to sediments deposited in the Mere. Dated lake sediments indicate there has been an increase in sedimentation rate and the relative amount of minerogenic material delivered to the Mere over the last 200 years. In contrast to a previous study at the same site, there is no evidence to attribute this increase to an overspill from a nearby canal. Other catchment disturbances include landscaping in parkland surrounding the Mere in the early nineteenth century and drainage systems installed to improve catchment agriculture over the last ca. 150 years. Both activities may explain the change in sedimentation rates and types, independent of the hypothesized canal origin. Although our results exclude the canal as a major sediment source, identifying the contribution of other potential catchment sources remains problematic. ¹³⁷Cs inventories for the lake are similar to those recorded at a local reference site, suggesting little influx of ¹³⁷Cs-bearing topsoil, yet ¹³⁷Cs activities remain high in the upper 20–30 cm of the lake sediment profile, indicating a topsoil origin. Combined radionuclide and mineral magnetic signatures proved to be relatively poor discriminators of potential sources, and the high atmospheric pollution load from the West Midland conurbation has probably altered recent lake sediment signatures. Although further research is required to identify the origins of recent (last ca. 200 years) minerogenic sediment inputs to the Mere, we suggest that the combined lake: catchment approach offers a more rigorous method for understanding the impact of catchment disturbance than analysis of the paleolimnological record alone.     

Spatial rainfall model using a pattern classifier for estimating missing daily rainfall data

Missing data in daily rainfall records are very common in water engineering practice. However, they must be replaced by proper estimates to be reliably used in hydrologic models. Presented herein is an effort to develop a new spatial daily rainfall model that is specifically intended to fill in gaps in a daily rainfall dataset. The proposed model is different from a convectional daily rainfall generation scheme in that it takes advantage of concurrent measurements at the nearby sites to increase the accuracy of estimation. The model is based on a two-step approach to handle the occurrence and the amount of daily rainfalls separately. This study tested four neural network classifiers for a rainfall occurrence processor, and two regression techniques for a rainfall amount processor. The test results revealed that a probabilistic neural network approach is preferred for determining the occurrence of daily rainfalls, and a stepwise regression with a log-transformation is recommended for estimating daily rainfall amounts.     

The landscape Reynolds number and other dimensionless measures of Earth surface processes

An analogy between turbulent fluid systems and landscape drainage systems [Parker, G., Haff, P.K., Murray, A.B., 2001, EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 82, pp. F564.] is suggested by the observation that transport in both systems can be approximated by diffusion with size-proportional effective diffusivities, with a cross-over at small scales to Fickian diffusion. The “landscape” Reynolds number of a typical fluvial landscape is estimated to be of order Re_L 10⁶ to 10⁹, these large values reflecting the relative efficiency of fluvial transport compared to creep. Re_L is the ratio of the large-scale effective diffusivity of rivers to the small-scale diffusivity of creep processes on hillslopes. The spatial dependence of the effective diffusivity produces rivers with logarithmic long-profiles, similar to the profiles of many rivers in nature, and analogous to the logarithmic dependence of mean fluid velocity on distance from a wall in turbulent flow. The landscape example suggests how other generalized “Reynolds numbers” can be constructed as ratios of large-scale to small-scale diffusivities to measure the efficiencies of complex processes that affect the surface. As an example, the global airline transportation network is estimated to have an efficacy relative to that of direct human mechanisms for transport of similar goods and materials of about 10⁸ as measured by a corresponding “technology” Reynolds number. The appearance of such large dimensionless numbers, pertaining to the consequences of human invention and design, reflects the emergence of the technosphere as an increasingly efficient overlay on the historical domain of biology and surficial geology.