Population growth and loss of arable land

I discuss the loss of cropland in developing countries in connection with the ongoing land conversion caused by the growing population and socio-economic development, resulting in an increased demand for housing, industry, infrastructure, etc.Based on assumptions about the required space per capita for other purposes than agriculture, the portion of this area that is removed from presently used cropland, and the quality of the available land reserves, the required demand for land reserves has been calculated.The main conclusions are that during the next three decades (i) the loss of cropland is likely to be within the range 30–60 Mha, (ii) the reserve land utilized will be about 100–200 Mha, and (iii) the reserve land still in use after 30 years, about 50–100 Mha.     

华南海陆风的数值模拟

本文利用Mass和Dempsey的一层σ坐标中尺度模式对华南的海陆风进行数值模拟。模拟结果表明,华南存在着六个中尺度的海陆风系。同时,存在三个与广东省暴雨中心相对应的海风辐合区。最后,利用模式输出的地面气压场计算的日波的振幅和位相,讨论了海陆风转换的时间以及它的动力学机制。     

城市土地利用对植被特征影响的研究

城市土地利用对植被的影响是城市生态学中研究的重要问题。简单综述了国内外在该领域中的研究现状。通过在北京市进行的研究，对城市植被的特点及其与土地利用的关系进行了分析，结论为：①藜科（Chenpodiac eae）和蓼科（Polygonac eae）植物种类数量相对增加，归化植物占的比例大是城市植物区系的特征；②与非城市区域相比，生活型谱中一二年生植物比例增高，属的区系地理成分构成中世界分布属所占比例也明显提高；③城市土地利用类型对生境和植物群落特征的影响明显；④生境多样化对维持城市植物物种多样性而言，比面积大小具有更为显著的作用。     

Exploring the Scale Effects of Trade-offs and Synergies of Multifunctional Cultivated Land—Evidence from Wuhan Metropolitan Area

The purpose of this paper is to explore the trade-offs and synergies of multifunctional cultivated land (MCL) at multiple scales. The study area is Wuhan Metropolitan Area, China. The entropy method and the method of Spearman's rank correlation were employed for the analysis of combined land use/cover data, administrative division data, population data and statistical yearbook data, from the multi-scale perspectives of cities, counties and townships. The results showed that: (1) The multi-functionality of cultivated land had obvious spatial differences and its overall spatial patterns were relatively robust, which did not change very much at the single scale. (2) At each single scale, the MCL's trade-offs and synergies had spatial heterogeneity. (3) Scale effects existed in the MCL's trade-offs and synergies. From the prefecture-level city scale, to the county scale, and to the township scale, the MCL's trade-offs were changed to synergies, and some synergic relationships were enhanced. This article contributes to the literature by deepening the multiscale analysis of trade-offs and synergies of multifunctional cultivated land. The conclusions might provide a basis for helping policy-makers to implement protection measures for the multi-functionality of cultivated land at the right spatial scale, and to promote the higher-level synergies of multifunctional cultivated land to realize its sustainable use.     

Multistage Deformation in the Northeastern Segment of the Jiangshao Fault (Suture) Belt: Constraints for the Relationship between the Yangtze Plate and the Cathaysia Old Land

Multistage deformation events have occurred in the northeastern Jiangshao Fault (Suture) Belt. The earliest two are ductile deformation events. The first is the ca. 820 Ma top-to-the-northwest ductile thrusting, which directly resulted from the collision between the Cathaysia Old Land and the Chencai Arc (?) during the Late Neoproterozoic, and the Jiangnan Orogenic Belt that formed as the ocean closed between the Yangtze Plate and the jointed Cathaysia Old Land and the Chencai Arc due to continuous compression. The second is the ductile left-lateral strike-slipping that occurred in the latest Early Paleozoic. Since the Jinning period, all deformation events represent the reactivation or inversion of intraplate structures due to the collisions between the North China and Yangtze plates during the Triassic and between the Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates during the Cenozoic. In the Triassic, brittle right-lateral strike-slipping and subsequent top-to-the south thrusting occurred along the whole northeastern Jiangshao Fault Zone because of the collision between the North China and Yangtze plates. In the Late Mesozoic, regional extension took place across southeastern China. In the Cenozoic, the collision between the Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates resulted in brittle thrusts along the whole Jiangnan Old land in the Miocene. The Jiangshao Fault Belt is a weak zone in the crust with long history, and its reactivation is one of important characteristics of the deformation in South China; however, late-stage deformation events did not occur beyond the Jiangnan Old Land and most of them are parallel to the strike of the Old Land, which is similar to the Cenozoic deformation in Central Asia. In addition, the Jiangnan old Land is not a collisional boundary between the Yangtze Plate and Cathaysia Old Land in the Triassic.     

科尔沁沙地土壤水分动态分析及其概率密度函数模拟

基于Laio土壤水分动态随机模型(Laio模型),利用2006-2010年5~9月土壤水分连续监测数据及日降水资料,分析科尔沁沙地固定沙丘和沙质草地生长季根系层土壤水分动态及其与降水格局的关系,研究点尺度土壤水分概率密度函数,并对Laio模型涉及的13个参数进行了敏感性分析。结果表明:① 研究区年降水的季节分配极不均匀,主要集中在4~10月的生长季,占全年降水量的93%;0~5 mm降水事件占全年降水事件的73%,但其降水量只占全年降水量的25%;降水间隔期以0~10 d为主,占全年无降水期的38%,其频数最高,占全年间隔期频数的87%。② 固定沙丘和沙质草地根系层厚度分别为0~100 cm和0~70 cm,沙质草地根系层土壤水分显著高于固定沙丘;两类沙地7月份的土壤水分都显著高于生长季其他月份。③ 两类沙地生长季根系层土壤水分均服从正态分布;通过Laio模型得到了两类沙地生长季根系层土壤水分概率密度函数p(s),其峰值及峰值出现的位置和峰的阔度均与观测结果很接近,说明Laio模型能对科尔沁沙地土壤水分概率密度函数进行较好的模拟。④ Laio模型涉及的13个参数中,对p(s)最为敏感的参数是降水频率λ、平均降水量α、最大蒸散量E_max、水分胁迫点s*和凋萎系数s_w,主要影响p(s)曲线的峰值。     

加强自然科学基金资助方向引导,推动陆地表层研究深化

着重阐述了近10年来,为推动陆地表层研究深入发展,国家自然科学基金在重点发展领域、重大研究计划、重大项目、申请代码及学科分类体系细化等层面对资助方向的引导作用。     

无锡光明村地裂缝研究

根据差异性地面沉降是引发地裂缝的基本原理对光明村地裂缝进行了实证.通过对地质构造和水文地质条件分析比较,认为该地裂缝与江阴南部地裂缝同属一条地裂缝带,在发生的时空关系上具有高相关性.地下水超采是产生地裂缝的主要原因,光明村与地下水位埋深超过40 m的河塘镇存在密切的水力联系.近期的实测数据表明,光明村地裂缝仍处于活动中,最大差异沉降量达5 mm/a.光明村地裂缝的稳定与否主要取决于江阴南部水文地质条件的改善程度.     

基于改进PSR模型的城市土地利用警情判别研究——以南京市为例

基于系统论构建改进的PSR模型,通过探究压力、状态、响应系统要素作用机理构建南京市城市土地利用警情判别指标,并运用数理量化模型开展警情综合评价。结果表明:(1)2009—2016年南京市城市土地利用压力系统和状态系统警情为“倒U”型且呈上升态势,响应系统警情为“倒U”型且呈下降态势。(2)2009—2016年南京市城市土地利用警情总体上为“倒U”型且呈波动上升态势。(3)压力系统是造成南京市城市土地利用综合警情难以显著转变的关键,同时受经济发展与土地集约利用协调度、土地生态治理力度、用地结构与人口分布均衡度等要素影响。     

Modeling spatial and temporal change of soil erosion based on multi-temporal remotely sensed data

In order to monitor the pattern, distribution, and trend of land use/cover change (LUCC) and its impacts on soil erosion, it is highly appropriate to adopt Remote Sensing (RS) data and Geographic Information System (GIS) to analyze, assess, simulate, and predict the spatial and temporal evolution dynamics. In this paper, multi-temporal Landsat TM/ETM+ remotely sensed data are used to generate land cover maps by image classification, and the Cellular Automata Markov (CA_Markov) model is employed to simulate the evolution and trend of landscape pattern change. Furthermore, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) is used to evaluate the situation of soil erosion in the case study mining area. The trend of soil erosion is analyzed according to total/average amount of soil erosion, and the rainfall (R), cover management (C), and support practice (P) factors in RUSLE relevant to soil erosion are determined. The change trends of soil erosion and the relationship between land cover types and soil erosion amount are analyzed. The results demonstrate that the CA_Markov model is suitable to simulate and predict LUCC trends with good efficiency and accuracy, and RUSLE can calculate the total soil erosion effectively. In the study area, there was minimal erosion grade and this is expected to continue to decline in the next few years, according to our prediction results.